{"id":10126,"date":"2022-01-31T09:45:50","date_gmt":"2022-01-31T09:45:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zackspcg.com\/blog\/?p=10126"},"modified":"2022-02-26T13:05:36","modified_gmt":"2022-02-26T13:05:36","slug":"a-rocky-start-to-2022-correction-or-bear-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/a-rocky-start-to-2022-correction-or-bear-market\/","title":{"rendered":"A Rocky Start to 2022&#8230;Correction or Bear Market?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2022 is off to a rocky start. The Omicron variant had an\nestimated 8.8 million Americans either out sick or caring for someone<sup>1<\/sup>\nin early January, adding pressure to an already strained labor market.\nInflation readings and gas prices show little signs of abating, and the Federal\nReserve has pivoted to a more hawkish stance with interest rate increases in\nthe offing. Geopolitical pressures are also building quickly between Russia and\nUkraine. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As worries swirl, most major U.S. stock indexes have endured\nsharp selling pressure. What we\u2019ve seen so far are double-digit declines over a\nvery short period, largely on fears related to inflation, rising interest rates,\nthe pandemic, and geopolitical flare-ups. <strong>In\nother words, investors are worried about recycled, widely-known, and understood\nfears \u2013 a classic sign of a correction, not a bear market.<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">__________________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-stock-market-outlook?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_blog_2022_01_31&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\">How to Keep Your Investments on Track During a Market Correction <\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As a result of the market correction, you may feel the urge\nto make drastic moves, but do not fall prey to this mistake. Instead, remember\nto think long-term! <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To help you do this, we are offering all readers\na look into our just-released&nbsp;<strong>February\n2022 Stock Market Outlook report.<\/strong> This report will provide you with our\nforecasts along with additional factors to consider:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><em>Zacks rank S&amp;P 500 sector picks<\/em><\/li><li><em>Zacks view on equity markets<\/em><\/li><li><em>What produces optimism in 2022?<\/em><\/li><li><em>Zacks forecasts for 2022<\/em><\/li><li><em>Zacks ranks industry tables<\/em><\/li><li><em>Sell-side and buy-side consensus<\/em><\/li><li><em>And much more<\/em><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn more about these forecasts, click on the link below to get your free report today!&nbsp;<br> <br><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-stock-market-outlook?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_blog_2022_01_31&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\">IT&#8217;S FREE. Download the Just-Released February 2022 Stock Market Outlook<\/a><sup><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-stock-market-outlook?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_blog_2022_01_31&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">______________________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If I had to give four defining features of a stock market\ncorrection, here\u2019s what they would be:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Sudden, sharp declines in equity prices<\/li><li>Pervasively negative sentiment among investors\nand consumers<\/li><li>No material changes to economic or\ncorporate earnings fundamentals, which remain strong<\/li><li>The \u2018causes\u2019 cited for the market\ncorrection are well-known, widely-discussed factors (in the current case:\ninflation, interest rates, Fed hawkishness, geopolitics) <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I\nbelieve we\u2019re seeing all of these features today. The latest American\nAssociation of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey showed that bullish\nsentiment had fallen to an 18-month low, while bearish sentiment rose to a\n16-month high. Only 21% of investors were bullish about the stock market over\nthe next six months, compared to 46.7% of investors who are bearish. Investor\nsentiment is often useful as a contrarian indicator. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The\nlast time investors were this bearish was in early September 2020<sup>3<\/sup>,\nwhen inflation and supply chain pressures were all over the news, and as the\nDelta variant created headwinds in the economy. But we know the end of last\nyear was not a good time to be bearish \u2013 the S&amp;P 500 rose +11% in Q4 alone<sup>4<\/sup>.\nOn the flip side, any time a majority of investors are bullish and euphoric\nabout upside potential, it\u2019s usually a sign to run the other way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the end of the day, downside volatility in the equity\nmarkets is always unpleasant, but it is also very common \u2013 over the last 42\nyears, the S&amp;P 500 has experienced an average intra-year correction of\n-14.0%. Corrections happen all the time. In 2021, however, volatility was\nunusually low \u2013 there were only 55 trading days with moves of 1% or more in\neither direction (compared to 109 in 2020), and only seven days with a move of\n2% or more. The biggest market pullback for the year was around -5%.<sup>5<\/sup>\nA market correction in 2022 was to be expected, in my view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The issue that often troubles many investors \u2013 and ultimately hurts them \u2013 is that they let volatility increase their temptation to \u201ctime the market,\u201d allowing short-term uncertainties to drive their decision-making. But it\u2019s important to remember that volatility works both ways. Rapid declines are often followed by rapid recoveries. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When an investor gets caught up in the negative news stories\nand sells into the downside of a correction, it often means capturing the\nlosses but failing to participate in the recovery, which is a recipe for\nsub-optimal returns over time. Famed\nmutual-fund manager Peter Lynch once quipped that \u201cfar more money has been lost\nby investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections\nthan has been lost in corrections themselves.\u201d<sup>6<\/sup> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Corrections can lead even the most steely-nerved investors\nto make emotional knee-jerk reactions that adversely affect long-term returns.\nIn my view, it is smarter to just stay the course and keep focused on the\nlong-term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Bottom Line for\nInvestors <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When the market takes a sudden and sharp turn, investors\noften get rattled and start questioning their asset allocation. Getting worried\nand second-guessing is a normal, natural, and understandable response. Volatility can serve as an opportunity to review\nyour asset allocation and make sure your portfolio is diversified and aligned\nwith your long-term goals. But if you\u2019re feeling the urge to react and\n\u2018do something about it,\u2019 I\u2019d strongly urge you to reconsider. <strong>If your goals have not significantly\nchanged in the last week, then in all likelihood, your investment portfolio\nshouldn\u2019t change either. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To help you focus on factors that can prepare your investments for volatility and other market outcomes, we are offering all readers our&nbsp;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-stock-market-outlook?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_blog_2022_01_31&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\">Just-Released February 2022 Stock Market Outlook Report.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You\u2019ll discover Zacks\u2019 view on:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><em>Zacks rank S&amp;P 500 sector picks<\/em><\/li><li><em>Zacks view on equity markets<\/em><\/li><li><em>What produces optimism in 2022?<\/em><\/li><li><em>Zacks forecasts for 2022<\/em><\/li><li><em>Zacks ranks industry tables<\/em><\/li><li><em>Sell-side and buy-side consensus<\/em><\/li><li><em>And much more<\/em><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn more about these forecasts, click on the link below to get your free report today!<br><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Does recent market volatility signal a bear market or a correction&#8230;and what moves should investors make?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":8874,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[63,71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10126","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mitch-on-the-markets","category-private-client-group"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A Rocky Start to 2022...Correction or Bear Market? 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