Oil Prices are High \u2013\nWill a Russian Invasion of Ukraine Send Them Higher? <\/strong>Oil prices have been\nmoving steadily higher since spring 2020 (see chart below) when the global\neconomy started to reopen following the pandemic-induced lockdown. OPEC and\nU.S. shale producers slashed supply in response to the lockdowns, but over time\ndemand for oil returned to the economy far faster than supply came back online.\nGlobal oil production is still below pre-pandemic highs. That has given way to\nhigh and rising oil prices, which many readers likely know given recent trips\nto the gas station. U.S. shale producers are steadily ramping production and\nOPEC has made \u2018commitments\u2019 to increase output, but it could take months before\nadditional supply starts to put downward pressure on prices. And then there\u2019s\nRussia, the world\u2019s third-largest oil producer. An invasion of Ukraine could\nresult in dented production, which could result in a short-term hit to already\ntight oil supplies. How the situation between Russia and Ukraine plays out is\nunknown today, but oil traders appear to be pricing in a significant\n\u201cgeopolitical risk premium,\u201d with oil approaching $100 a barrel.1<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n 7 Secrets to Building the Ultimate Retirement Portfolio!<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Navigating through unprecedented times is difficult, but we\nstill believe it is possible to avoid the damage of economic downturns and\nachieve your retirement goals. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Achieving these goals involves some work: defining your\ninvestment objectives, determining your asset allocation, managing investments\nover time. Our guide can help you achieve these goals by providing a\nstep-by-step blueprint of our customized investing process to potentially help\nyou build a sound retirement portfolio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you have $500,000 or more to invest, get this guide to\nlearn our ideas on building and maintaining a retirement portfolio to\npotentially achieve your long-term goals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Get our FREE guide:\u00a07 Secrets to Building the Ultimate DIY Retirement Portfolio<\/a>3<\/a><\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n U.S. Government Runs a Budget Surplus for First Time in Years \u2013 <\/strong>Did readers see that correctly? Did the U.S. government run a budget surplus?<\/em> Indeed \u2013 in January, the U.S. government ran a monthly surplus for the first time since September 2019, of $119 billion. The monthly surplus comes from the expiration of fiscal stimulus programs like the child tax credit, aid to workers and small businesses, and other Covid-19 spending programs, coupled with an increase in tax revenue triggered by higher wages (which increases taxable earnings), more workers in the economy, and higher corporate revenues. Spending from the infrastructure bill has not yet been deployed, so the budget surplus seen in January may be more of a one-off event than part of a larger trend.4<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n More Retirees in the\nU.S. \u2013 <\/strong>The number of retirees in the U.S. increased over the past year,\nwith the percentage of the U.S. population in retirement at close to 20% \u2013 up\nfrom 18.3% in early 2020. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis,\napproximately 4.2 million people left the workforce during the pandemic, with a\nmeaningful percentage of them planning never to return. There are a few reasons\nmore people entered retirement. For one, the stock market and housing market\nhave both delivered robust gains over the past two years, meaning that many\nretirees and would-be retirees have seen their net worth rise to record levels.\nBut there was also a recalibration of people\u2019s perception of work once the\nlockdowns took hold and the \u2018remote work\u2019 movement gained traction.5<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n Retail Spending\nBounces Back Firmly, But\u2026 <\/strong>January\nwas a strong month for retail sales, which rose 3.8% from December \u2013 the\nbiggest monthly gain since March 2021. Sales fell in December as the Omicron\nvariant spread quickly, so the rebound in January was likely attributed to\nwaning pandemic risk coupled with accumulated savings from the previous month.\nThere\u2019s a \u201cbut,\u201d however \u2013 retail sales figures are not adjusted for inflation,\nmeaning that higher prices will push sales figures higher. As such, the strong\nJanuary performance is arguably just as much inflation-driven as it is\npurchase-driven. The upshot is that retail sales figures also do not account\nfor spending on services, which are poised to see a rebound in Q1 (and\nhopefully beyond) and pandemic restrictions fade. In fact, there are already\nearly signs this transition from goods to services may be taking hold \u2013\nspending on services increased 12% year-over-year for the week ended February\n5, as consumers dished out more for airfares, hotels, entertainment, and dining\nout.6<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n How to Build the\nUltimate Retirement Portfolio<\/strong> – As you consider these current events when making investment\ndecisions, there are things you can do to protect and create a retirement\nportfolio that meets your financial goals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n To help you do\nthis, we recommend reading our guide, 7 Secrets to Building the\nUltimate DIY Retirement Portfolio<\/em>.7<\/sup> It provides a\nstep-by-step blueprint of our customized investing process to potentially help\nyou build a sound retirement portfolio of your own and pursue long-term\ninvesting success. A potential invasion could send oil prices higher, federal budget surplus (!), more retirees in U.S., consumers shift to services spending<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":7426,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71,73],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10179","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-private-client-group","category-steady-investors-week"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10179","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10179"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10179\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10197,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10179\/revisions\/10197"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10179"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10179"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10179"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"\"](\"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/pic1-2-1024x395.png\")
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\nIf you have $500,000 or more to invest, get this\nguide to learn our ideas on the step-by-step process of building and\nmaintaining a retirement portfolio that will potentially help you reach your\ngoals and enjoy a secure retirement. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"