1<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\nThis optimistic framing of the current market is especially true if an investor expects the U.S. economy and U.S. corporations to grow in 2022, which is our base case here at Zacks Investment Management. I\u2019m looking for the U.S. economy to grow nominal GDP above trend this year, which I could see hitting ~7%. Since corporate earnings and revenue track GDP growth, I\u2019d also expect corporations to have a good year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At Zacks, we are currently calling for +7.3% earnings growth for the full year of 2022, on +6.2% revenue growth. Of course, this is a far cry from the 49.9% earnings growth posted in 2021, but that year was also gangbusters because of easy comparisons with the global economic shutdown year in 2020. By most accounts, 2021 was a strong growth year even with pandemic pressures, so an additional 7+% earnings growth in 2022 is meaningful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Profit margins are also not mentioned very often in the financial news, but from a fundamental analysis viewpoint, it is hard to be bearish when margins are this good. S&P 500 companies are expected to generate 12+% profit margins throughout 2022, continuing a strong trend established in 2021 (see chart below). Before the sizable December 2017 corporate tax cut, profit margins were consistently below 10%.3<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\nI do not mean to downplay the current economic headwinds and geopolitical challenges the world faces. But in fairness, those seem to be the only things the media focuses on, which means positives are being ignored during a period of heightened volatility \u2013 a confirmation of a correction (not a bear), and a recipe for more bull market, in my view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bottom Line for Investors<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nThe pushback against the bull case is that stocks are already expensive, and the Fed is poised to tighten financial conditions throughout the year. But it\u2019s also true that the current market pullback has led to multiple compression, such that the S&P 500 is trading below 19x forward earnings while the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield remains below 2.5%. If aggregate S&P 500 earnings reach $250 by the end of 2022, I think there\u2019s a good case in arguing that the stock market is currently quite cheap. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
As for the Fed, I think it is important to remember that 2022\u2019s rate increases are coming off an era of very easy monetary policy, such that six rate increases would still mean seeing the fed funds rate at 2% \u2013 very low by historical standards.4<\/sup> I think the right framing for 2022 is that the Fed is taking steps to remove excess accommodation and tamp down inflation, not paralyze the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\nThe bottom line in the current environment is that stocks have gotten cheaper, fundamentals have largely remained the same, and investors are arguably more worried than ever. This to me marks a compelling setup for embracing volatility, not fearing it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
To help you embrace market volatility, I recommend that investors do the appropriate research to better invest towards their long-term goals. I am giving exclusive access to our Just-Released March 2022 Stock Market Outlook Report.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nYou\u2019ll discover Zacks\u2019 view on:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Zacks Rank S&P 500 Sector Picks<\/em><\/li>Zacks view on equity markets<\/em><\/li>What produces optimism?<\/em><\/li>Zacks forecasts<\/em><\/li>Zacks ranks industry tables<\/em><\/li>Sell-side and buy-side consensus<\/em><\/li>And much more<\/em><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\nIf you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn more about these forecasts, click on the link below to get your free guide.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Stocks have gotten cheaper while fundamentals have largely stayed the same. Investors are worried, but they really shouldn’t be.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[63,71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11570","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mitch-on-the-markets","category-private-client-group"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11570","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11570"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11570\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11574,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11570\/revisions\/11574"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11570"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11570"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11570"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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