{"id":12462,"date":"2023-05-26T17:02:46","date_gmt":"2023-05-26T17:02:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/?p=12462"},"modified":"2023-05-26T17:02:46","modified_gmt":"2023-05-26T17:02:46","slug":"u-s-services-activity-remains-strong-feds-next-move-new-home-sales-rise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/u-s-services-activity-remains-strong-feds-next-move-new-home-sales-rise\/","title":{"rendered":"U.S. Services Activity Remains Strong, Fed&#8217;s Next Move, New Home Sales Rise"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>In this week\u2019s Steady Investor, we look at some of the current events that are shifting the market, such as:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The main driver in the U.S. economy remains strong<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Status on Fed Rate hikes<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Strength in the housing market<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>A Main Driver of U.S. Economic Growth Remains Strong \u2013 <\/strong>On a macro level, developed country economic activity is often framed in terms of services and manufacturing. In export-driven countries like China and Japan, manufacturing is generally considered the more important measure of the two. But in services- and consumption-based economy like the U.S., services activity matters far more than manufacturing. There\u2019s good news to report: the latest data from S&amp;P Global shows service activity in the U.S. at a 13-month high. Overseas, Japan also showed strong services and manufacturing activity as did Europe, though the latter is still coping with high energy and food prices. According to the latest U.S. data, services activity was strong across travel, dining out, and other leisure activity. Manufacturing activity went in the opposite direction, as bloated inventories and weak new orders have dented growth. The composite purchasing managers index, which measures manufacturing and services together, rose to 54.5 in May from 53.4 in April, with any reading above 50 signaling expansion. This relatively robust measure of economic activity may complicate the Federal Reserve\u2019s plans for monetary tightening, as elevated services and spending activity will arguably keep some level of upward pressure on prices. Below, we discuss whether that means the Federal Reserve\u2019s planned interest rate \u201cpause\u201d in June is still on the table.<sup>1<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-market-strategy-report?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=steadyinvestor_zim_2023_05_29&amp;content=market_strategy_report\">Worried These Events Could Affect Your Investments?<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Current events, such as the latest debt ceiling standoff, is raising concerns about whether the U.S. may default on debt payments for the first time in history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To better navigate through market changes, it\u2019s important to prepare your investments. In our May 2023 Zacks Market Strategy Report, we look at the debt ceiling issue and what it means for investors. Get your free copy to learn more about:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Debt Ceiling Drama is Back<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A Historical View of Debt Ceiling Standoffs and How the Impacted Markets<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bottom Line for Investors<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn more, download your guide today!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><u><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-market-strategy-report?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=steadyinvestor_zim_2023_05_29&amp;content=market_strategy_report\">Download Our Exclusive \u201cMarket Strategy Guide\u201d<sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Is the Federal Reserve Actually Poised to Pause Rate Hikes in June? <\/strong>The Federal Reserve has engaged in an aggressive rate hike campaign, pushing the benchmark fed funds rate from the zero bound to between 5% and 5.25%, a 16-year high. Chairman Jerome Powell has been sending signals that the Fed could pause rate hikes at the June meeting, as he recently said that \u201chaving come this far, we can afford to look at the data and the evolving outlook and make careful assessments.\u201d Powell also added that \u201cthe risks of doing too much versus doing too little are becoming more balanced,\u201d which was a break from earlier language suggesting that the real risk was in not raising rates enough. The market had all but priced in a pause in the tightening cycle \u2013 until this week. Now, a handful of Fed officials have indicated their decision to raise or hold rates at the next meeting could be a close call. Some have indicated that inflation does not seem to be slowing quickly enough and that the U.S. economy is still too strong \u2013 as evidenced by the services PMI referenced above and by the still-tight labor market. In Fed governor Neal Kashkari\u2019s words, \u201cI would object to any kind of declaration that we\u2019re done [raising rates].<sup>3<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>New Home Sales Post Strong Showing \u2013 <\/strong>The U.S. housing market is often characterized as being in a downturn, but a more nuanced view of the data suggests that pockets of weakness are also accompanied by pockets of strength. We have written in this space before about the geographic split in U.S. housing, where home sale activity in the South and East has been holding up well relative to the West. But there is another \u2018split\u2019 in the data worth highlighting: the sale of <em>new <\/em>homes versus <em>existing <\/em>homes. Existing home sales have been under pressure, as homeowners with low mortgage rates are (understandably) reluctant to move \u2013 which could also mean swapping a low rate for a higher one. As such, the inventory of existing homes is low, which is driving weak sales activity. For new homes, however, the picture looks better. New home sales rose in April to a level not seen in over a year, up 4.1% from March and 11.8% year-over-year.<sup>4 <\/sup>The divergence between the two is clear in the chart below:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"350\" src=\"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/pic1-8-1024x350.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12463\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/pic1-8-1024x350.png 1024w, https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/pic1-8-300x102.png 300w, https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/pic1-8-768x262.png 768w, https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/pic1-8.png 1318w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<sup>5<\/sup><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Homebuilders understand that with interest rates likely to remain elevated, the supply of existing homes is likely to remain tight in the foreseeable future \u2013 which also means demand for new homes may remain firm as well. That has pulled forward new construction and is also adding to overall economic activity (since new home starts are the principal way real estate adds to GDP).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>A Closer Look at the Debt Ceiling Drama \u2013<\/strong> The latest debt ceiling standoff is raising concerns about whether the U.S. may default on debt payments for the first time in history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even though we know from recent history how this story goes\u2014and how it will likely go again\u2014the issue has to be taken seriously each time. In our <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-market-strategy-report?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=steadyinvestor_zim_2023_05_29&amp;content=market_strategy_report\">May 2023 Zacks Market Strategy Report<\/a><\/strong>, we look at the debt ceiling issue and what it means for investors. Get your free copy to learn more about:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Debt Ceiling Drama is Back<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A Historical View of Debt Ceiling Standoffs and How the Impacted Markets<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bottom Line for Investors<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>If you have $500,000 or more, fill out the form to get your free report today!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fed&#8217;s expected rate hike pause in June questioned, U.S. manufacturing weakens but services still strong, new home sales up while existing home sales falter <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71,73],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12462","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-private-client-group","category-steady-investors-week"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12462","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12462"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12462\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12465,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12462\/revisions\/12465"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12462"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12462"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12462"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}