{"id":12972,"date":"2024-01-29T15:42:03","date_gmt":"2024-01-29T15:42:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/?p=12972"},"modified":"2024-01-29T15:42:04","modified_gmt":"2024-01-29T15:42:04","slug":"economic-indicators-point-to-a-recession-but-will-it-arrive","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/economic-indicators-point-to-a-recession-but-will-it-arrive\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic Indicators Point To A Recession, But Will It Arrive?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>In this week&#8217;s Steady Investor, we explore current market news that we believe investors should keep on their radar, such as:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2022 Rising credit card debt<br>\u2022 China steps up stimulus<br>\u2022 The current growing economy<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Credit Card Debt is Rising \u2013 A Sign that Consumers Are in Trouble?<\/strong> Armed with stimulus money following the pandemic, Americans paid down credit card debt at a rapid clip, and the delinquency rate on credit cards fell to its lowest level in decades. 2023 was a turnaround year in credit card spending\u2014but not in a good way. Consumers had a banner year of spending, but data shows that an increasing amount of that spending was put on credit cards. Money center banks reported that credit card spending went up significantly in 2023, with JPMorgan Chase showing a 9% increase and Wells Fargo reporting a 15% increase. A strong labor market and rising real wages are bolstering Americans\u2019 ability to spend, but some may be stretching a bit too much. Banks also reported that it is taking Americans longer to pay off balances, with unpaid balances passing 2019 levels for the first time. The bottom line in 2023 is that U.S. consumers appeared to spend more than they made, which makes this data worth scrutinizing in the new year. We don\u2019t think it\u2019s time to raise alarm just yet\u2014as seen in the chart below, delinquency rates shot up over the past year, but remain below the long-term average over the past three decades.<sup>1<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-market-strategy-report?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=steadyinvestor_zim_2024_01_29&amp;content=market_strategy_report\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-market-strategy-report?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=steadyinvestor_zim_2024_01_29&amp;content=market_strategy_report\">What Can Investors Expect in 2024? Get Our Insights and Tips!<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Will this year bring a &#8220;soft landing&#8221; for the economy or a bumpy ride? There are many factors that could influence the economy in the months ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In our exclusive <strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-market-strategy-report?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=steadyinvestor_zim_2024_01_29&amp;content=market_strategy_report\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-market-strategy-report?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=steadyinvestor_zim_2024_01_29&amp;content=market_strategy_report\">January 2024 Zacks Market Strategy Report<\/a><\/span><\/strong>, we look at other potential outcomes\u2014including an economy in 2024 that is much stronger or weaker than most pundits expect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Download your free report now for our insights, including:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2022 Betting against a soft economic landing<br>\u2022 Consumer spending is up, but Americans are feeling down. Why?<br>\u2022 How earnings estimates may evolve in 2024<br>\u2022 And much more!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn more, download your guide today!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-market-strategy-report?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=steadyinvestor_zim_2024_01_29&amp;content=market_strategy_report\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-market-strategy-report?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=steadyinvestor_zim_2024_01_29&amp;content=market_strategy_report\">Download Our Exclusive \u201cMarket Strategy Guide\u201d<sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Delinquency rates have moved sharply higher, but are still below longer-term averages<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"405\" src=\"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/pic-1-2-1024x405.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12973\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/pic-1-2-1024x405.png 1024w, https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/pic-1-2-300x119.png 300w, https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/pic-1-2-768x304.png 768w, https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/pic-1-2.png 1138w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<sup>3<\/sup><\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>China Steps Up Stimulus to Ail Slowing Economy<\/strong> \u2013 China is best known as the \u2018world\u2019s manufacturing floor\u2019 and a powerful export economy. But what is less well-known is how crucial the real estate sector and related industries are to the overall economy, which combined account for roughly 25% of the country\u2019s GDP. And for the past two years, China\u2019s property sector has been mired in a downturn that is dragging economic growth down with it. Layoffs in the sector have been high, and Chinese consumers are shifting into saving mode as their confidence for a real estate market revival dim. Sales of new homes in China fell 6% last year, falling back to 2016 levels, and existing home prices in some of the country\u2019s most populated cities have fallen over 10%. Markets have been anticipating that the Chinese government would step in forcefully to stem the downturn, but the past year was largely disappointing in the realm of fiscal or monetary stimulus. That narrative started to change last week, with China\u2019s central bank announcing it would cut banks\u2019 reserve requirements in an effort to free up more cash for lending to households and businesses. Investors are eager to interpret these announcements as the beginning of a full policy pivot, but it is arguably too early to tell.<sup>4<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Leading Economic Indicators Point to Recession, But Economy Keeps Growing<\/strong> \u2013 What was once a steadfast indicator for recessions and expansions\u2014the Conference Board\u2019s Leading Economic Index (LEI)\u2014has ostensibly lost a bit of its luster. Since the beginning of 2022, the LEI has been sending strong signals that the U.S. economy was charging toward a recession. On Monday of last week, the Conference Board reported that the LEI has now fallen for 22 consecutive months. The recession never arrived. Instead, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that the U.S. economy grew by 3.3% in the fourth quarter (\u201cadvance\u201d estimate) and 3.1% in 2023, an indication that the economy accelerated when LEI has been predicting for several months that it should be contracting.<sup>5<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"453\" src=\"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/pic-2-1-1024x453.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12974\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/pic-2-1-1024x453.png 1024w, https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/pic-2-1-300x133.png 300w, https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/pic-2-1-768x340.png 768w, https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/pic-2-1.png 1116w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The Conference Board continues to believe a recession is around the corner, predicting that the U.S. economy would contract in Q2 and Q3 but then recover late in the year. Time will tell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Investing in 2024<\/strong> \u2013 It&#8217;s becoming a consensus in the investing world that 2024 will bring a &#8220;soft landing&#8221; for the economy\u2014meaning that inflation and other problems will be resolved without a recession or significant market downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No one knows what\u2019s to come in this fluctuating market; however, to ease your uncertainty, I am offering our free <strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-market-strategy-report?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=steadyinvestor_zim_2024_01_29&amp;content=market_strategy_report\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-market-strategy-report?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=steadyinvestor_zim_2024_01_29&amp;content=market_strategy_report\">January 2024 Zacks Market Strategy Report<\/a><\/span><\/strong>. This report focuses on potential market outcomes, such as:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2022 Betting against a soft economic landing<br>\u2022 Consumer spending is up, but Americans are feeling down. Why?<br>\u2022 How earnings estimates may evolve in 2024<br>\u2022 And much more!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-market-strategy-report?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=steadyinvestor_zim_2024_01_29&amp;content=market_strategy_report\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-market-strategy-report?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=steadyinvestor_zim_2024_01_29&amp;content=market_strategy_report\">Download Our Exclusive Market Strategy Report<sup>6<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Credit debt is rising, China steps up stimulus, and recession questions remain <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71,73],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12972","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-private-client-group","category-steady-investors-week"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12972","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12972"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12972\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12976,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12972\/revisions\/12976"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12972"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12972"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12972"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}