{"id":13434,"date":"2024-10-09T20:33:17","date_gmt":"2024-10-09T20:33:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/?p=13434"},"modified":"2024-10-09T20:33:18","modified_gmt":"2024-10-09T20:33:18","slug":"how-accurate-are-latest-job-growth-numbers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/how-accurate-are-latest-job-growth-numbers\/","title":{"rendered":"How Accurate Are Latest Job Growth Numbers?\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>Megan H. from Sparks, NV asks: <\/em>Hello Mitch, I saw recently that the United States had a big month with new jobs, and I\u2019m wondering two things. First, do you think this data is actually accurate? Second, what do you think this means for the economy and interest rates heading into the end of the year?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Mitch\u2019s Response:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thanks for sending your questions, Megan. September was indeed a busy month for employers around the country. According to the Labor Department, the U.S. economy added 254,000 new jobs, which blew past economist expectations of 150,000. It was the largest monthly payroll increase since March, and the gains pulled the unemployment rate down to 4.1%.<sup>1<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Total Nonfarm Jobs (Change in Thousands of Persons, Monthly)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"349\" src=\"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/pic1-1-1024x349.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13436\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/pic1-1-1024x349.png 1024w, https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/pic1-1-300x102.png 300w, https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/pic1-1-768x262.png 768w, https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/pic1-1.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<sup>2<\/sup><\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><u><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/zim-market-timing?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=mitchsmailbox_zim_market_timing_10_10_2024&amp;content=market_timing\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/zim-market-timing?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=mitchsmailbox_zim_market_timing_10_10_2024&amp;content=market_timing\">Protect Your Investments from Costly Mistakes<\/a><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dalbar\u2019s recent report shows that the average investor underperformed the S&amp;P 500 by -5.5% in 2023. This is because many investors sell during downturns and miss rebounds\u2014a costly mistake driven by emotion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Our free guide, \u201c<strong><em><u><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/zim-market-timing?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=mitchsmailbox_zim_market_timing_10_10_2024&amp;content=market_timing\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/zim-market-timing?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=mitchsmailbox_zim_market_timing_10_10_2024&amp;content=market_timing\">The Perils of Market Timing<sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/u><\/em><\/strong>,\u201d reveals common pitfalls and strategies to avoid them. You&#8217;ll learn:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>How Market Timing Can Impact Returns<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>How to Avoid the Market Timing Trap: 2 Steps<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bottom Line for Investors<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn how you may be able to avoid these mistakes today, click on the link below to get your free copy:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00a0<strong><u><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/zim-market-timing?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=mitchsmailbox_zim_market_timing_10_10_2024&amp;content=market_timing\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/zim-market-timing?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=mitchsmailbox_zim_market_timing_10_10_2024&amp;content=market_timing\">Download Zacks Guide, \u201c<em>The Perils of Market Timing<\/em>\u201d<sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You make a fair point about whether the data is accurate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Historically speaking, the Labor Department will release monthly data, and then revise it in future months as more data comes in. This is very typical. What made headlines recently, however, was when the Labor Department suggested it may have overstated job gains by 818,000 (in the 12 months through March). This was an abnormally large revision, and it naturally raised questions about the reliability of the payrolls data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What I\u2019ve found over time, however, is that while revisions are sometimes meaningful in nominal terms, they rarely mark an outright reversal of a trend. In other words, we don\u2019t see situations where initial data told us the job market was expanding, only to find out months later that it was contracting. In the case of the aforementioned revision, it was previously assumed that the U.S. economy had added close to 250,000 jobs per month in the year ending March 2024, but the revision suggests it was more like 175,000. This is a meaningful difference, but I think the takeaway is the same: we\u2019re seeing relatively solid job growth in the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One way to cross reference Labor Department data is to look at private jobs data, provided by the payrolls processing firm ADP. The September report also showed stable job growth, with companies adding 143,000 new jobs\u2014an acceleration from the 103,000 in gains for August and about 15,000 jobs higher than consensus estimates. Again, the public and private reports will often diverge in monthly job gains\/losses, but not necessarily in where the labor market is trending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To your second question about what the jobs report implies about the economy and interest rates, I think it confirms the economy is still in expansion mode and that the Fed will likely stick to its plan of cutting rates a bit more from here\u2014assuming inflation does not pick up in Q4. In my view, I believe that means a 25-basis-point rate cut in November and another one in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In times of market volatility, it\u2019s crucial to maintain a long-term perspective and stay the course. Rather than succumbing to short-term strategies or knee-jerk reactions, consider our guide, <strong><em><u><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/zim-market-timing?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=mitchsmailbox_zim_market_timing_10_10_2024&amp;content=market_timing\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/zim-market-timing?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=mitchsmailbox_zim_market_timing_10_10_2024&amp;content=market_timing\">The Perils of Market Timing<sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/u><\/em><\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This guide delves into common behavioral traps and provides actionable solutions to help you avoid costly mistakes, such as attempting to time the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn how you may be able to avoid these mistakes today, get your free copy by clicking on the link below.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mitch replies to a reader&#8217;s question about the latest job numbers, and what recent job growth means for the economy and interest rates. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":13435,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[66,71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13434","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mitchs-mailbox","category-private-client-group"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13434","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13434"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13434\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13437,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13434\/revisions\/13437"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13435"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13434"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13434"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13434"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}