{"id":13520,"date":"2024-11-11T18:26:50","date_gmt":"2024-11-11T18:26:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/?p=13520"},"modified":"2025-01-20T14:49:21","modified_gmt":"2025-01-20T14:49:21","slug":"amid-election-uncertainty-remember-to-focus-on-the-long-term","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/amid-election-uncertainty-remember-to-focus-on-the-long-term\/","title":{"rendered":"Amid Election Uncertainty, Remember To Focus On The Long Term"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Now is the Time for Investors to Stay Focused on the Long Term<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The contentious U.S. presidential election is over. Given the roughly even split among voters, it\u2019s understandable that a great deal of readers are disappointed\u2014and others elated\u2014at the results. When it comes to investing, however, these emotions must be set aside. History makes it clear that the stock market has no political preference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>My message to investors this week, and in future weeks\/months as the transition of power takes place, is clear: <em>stay focused on your objectives<\/em> <em>and remember what it takes to achieve them<\/em>. And that is, an asset allocation that\u2019s aligned with your long-term goals, income needs, risk tolerance, and one that\u2019s driven by economic fundamentals and corporate earnings. Short-term political outcomes should be walled off from these considerations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is not to say that the election result does not matter. It does, as the president influences and sometimes establishes economic policies. But these changes do not take place immediately\u2014there is plenty of time to assess how campaign proposals take shape as actual policy, and\/or whether many of the ideas floated on the campaign trail get watered down substantially or scrapped altogether. Remember, too, that economic cycles do not fit neatly into four-year boxes depending on what party is in power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>History reminds us to keep our cool. Since the inception of a version of the S&amp;P 500 in the 1920\u2019s<sup>1<\/sup>, there have been 24 U.S. presidential elections. In 20 of them, the S&amp;P 500 Index registered positive total returns. In the four instances when the stock market fell, the U.S. economy was in the Great Depression, the early days of World War II, the 2000 tech bubble, and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.\u00a0Today, we have 4% unemployment, roughly 2.5% inflation, 2+% GDP growth, and solid corporate earnings growth (see below). This is the data that matters.<sup>1<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><u><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/download-ultimate-retirement-portfolio?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_zim_2024_11_11&amp;content=ultimate_retirement_portfolio\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/download-ultimate-retirement-portfolio?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_zim_2024_11_11&amp;content=ultimate_retirement_portfolio\">A Guide to Strengthening Your Portfolio Through Election Cycles<\/a><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As we navigate the post-election landscape, now is the perfect opportunity to revisit and strengthen your portfolio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Designing a retirement portfolio that holds up in any market environment can be challenging. So today, I\u2019m offering our guide, <strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/download-ultimate-retirement-portfolio?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_zim_2024_11_11&amp;content=ultimate_retirement_portfolio\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/download-ultimate-retirement-portfolio?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_zim_2024_11_11&amp;content=ultimate_retirement_portfolio\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">7 Secrets to Building the Ultimate DIY Retirement Portfolio<u><sup>2<\/sup><\/u><\/span><\/a><\/em><\/strong>, which offer insights on:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>How to accurately establish your retirement income needs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The two phases of determining your asset allocation<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Investing rules to help you avoid self-sabotage<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><em>Plus, our views on key steps to create and maintain the ultimate retirement portfolio<\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>If you have $500,000+ to invest, get our free\u00a0<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/download-ultimate-retirement-portfolio?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_zim_2024_11_11&amp;content=ultimate_retirement_portfolio\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/download-ultimate-retirement-portfolio?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_zim_2024_11_11&amp;content=ultimate_retirement_portfolio\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">7 Secrets to Building the Ultimate DIY Retirement Portfolio<sup>2<\/sup><\/span><\/a><\/strong> guide today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nevertheless, in the 30+ years I\u2019ve been an investment manager, there has always been investor sentiment that <em>if candidate ____ wins the election, it will be terrible for the stock market<\/em>. But a look at past election year returns\u2014as well as longer-term returns for U.S. stocks\u2014demonstrates that such an outcome has never materialized. In the cases where we have seen post-election downturns, it has been tied to broader economic factors\u2014not the election or re-election of a president.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The chart below drives this point home. If a person invested money in the stock market only when their preferred political party was in the White House, it would have meant severely reducing total return over time. This is true of both Democrats and Republicans. Investing for the long-term\u2014regardless of who was president\u2014clearly delivered the best result. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"627\" height=\"424\" src=\"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/chart1-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13522\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/chart1-1.png 627w, https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/chart1-1-300x203.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 627px) 100vw, 627px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Source: Data from Morningstar, Charles Schwab<sup>3<\/sup><\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>If investors are looking for somewhere to divert their attention in a noisy political climate, look no further than U.S. corporate earnings. The news cycle has essentially buried any mention of the stock market\u2019s most critical driver, in my view. There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Through November 1, we have seen Q3 results from 350 S&amp;P 500 index members, or 70% of the index\u2019s total membership.&nbsp;Total earnings for these 350 companies are +8.8% higher than the same period last year on +5.7% higher revenues. 74.9% of these reporting companies beat their earnings per share (EPS) estimates and 60.6% beat revenue estimates. These are solid results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If we look at earnings and revenue growth rates for these 350 companies compared to previous periods, we find that both are solidly above average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"670\" src=\"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/chart2-1-1024x670.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13523\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/chart2-1-1024x670.png 1024w, https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/chart2-1-300x196.png 300w, https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/chart2-1-768x502.png 768w, https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/chart2-1.png 1087w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"670\" src=\"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/chart3-1-1024x670.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13524\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/chart3-1-1024x670.png 1024w, https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/chart3-1-300x196.png 300w, https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/chart3-1-768x502.png 768w, https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/chart3-1.png 1070w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In terms of \u2018beats percentages,\u2019 we also see earnings and revenue well within historical averages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"669\" src=\"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/chart4-1-1024x669.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13525\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/chart4-1-1024x669.png 1024w, https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/chart4-1-300x196.png 300w, https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/chart4-1-768x502.png 768w, https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/chart4-1.png 1073w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"670\" src=\"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/chart5-1024x670.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13526\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/chart5-1024x670.png 1024w, https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/chart5-300x196.png 300w, https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/chart5-768x502.png 768w, https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/chart5.png 1049w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, if we combined current results with Zack\u2019s estimates for the 150 companies yet to report, we find that total earnings growth for the S&amp;P 500 index could be +6.8% year-over-year on +5.4% higher revenues. Again, these are nicely positive results, and ones that investors should focus on more than the election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bottom Line for Investors<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Over time, the stock market responds more to long-term earnings and economic growth trends, not to changes in political leadership. The emotional gravity of an election\u2014and this election in particular\u2014may make it appear as though the outcome will make or break the nation. But I believe this mindset puts far too much emphasis on political figures and policies, and far too little emphasis on the real engines of the U.S. economy \u2013 corporate earnings, small business growth, investment, the consumer, and innovation. Politicians come and go, but the desire to grow, innovate, and pursue profit remains a constant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Focusing on these enduring economic drivers rather than political shifts can help you take a more grounded approach to investing. To support this perspective, I\u2019m offering our guide, <strong><em><u><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/download-ultimate-retirement-portfolio?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_zim_2024_11_11&amp;content=ultimate_retirement_portfolio\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/download-ultimate-retirement-portfolio?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_zim_2024_11_11&amp;content=ultimate_retirement_portfolio\">7 Secrets to Building the Ultimate DIY Retirement Portfolio.<sup>4<\/sup><\/a><\/u><\/em><\/strong><sup> <\/sup>This guide offers essential tips and insights to help you create a portfolio that aligns with your retirement goals. It covers:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>How to accurately establish your retirement income needs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The two phases of determining your asset allocation<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Investing rules to help you avoid self-sabotage<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><em>Plus, our views on key steps to create and maintain the ultimate retirement portfolio<\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>If you have $500,000 or more to invest, get this guide to learn our ideas on the step-by-step process of building and maintaining a retirement portfolio that will potentially help you reach your goals and enjoy a secure retirement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the days and weeks ahead there may be uncertainty about the election results. Here&#8217;s why you should maintain a long-term focus when it comes to your investments.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":13521,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[63,71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13520","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mitch-on-the-markets","category-private-client-group"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13520","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13520"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13520\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13528,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13520\/revisions\/13528"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13521"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13520"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13520"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13520"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}