{"id":13785,"date":"2025-05-28T13:42:16","date_gmt":"2025-05-28T13:42:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/?p=13785"},"modified":"2025-05-30T15:15:55","modified_gmt":"2025-05-30T15:15:55","slug":"why-sell-in-may-still-doesnt-work","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/why-sell-in-may-still-doesnt-work\/","title":{"rendered":"Why \u201cSell in May\u201d Still Doesn\u2019t Work"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>Jack A. from New Haven, CT asks: <\/em>Dear Mitch, I\u2019ll admit I probably made a mistake. With all the volatility and uncertainty going on, and given the recovery in April, I thought this would be a good year to try \u201csell in May and go away.\u201d So far, it\u2019s not looking great! But I\u2019m still skeptical about what\u2019s coming next for the economy. Do you think the \u201csell in May\u201d mantra might still apply for the next few months?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Mitch\u2019s Response:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unfortunately, I have to agree with your assessment that it was a mistake to \u201csell in May and go away.\u201d Even if it turns out being correct, i.e., the market falls between now and September, I don\u2019t think these types of short-term market timing moves are prudent for long-term investors. Over time, they will hurt your returns far more than they\u2019ll help, in my view.<sup>1<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What\u2019s more, I just don\u2019t think the \u201csell in May\u201d mantra is a good investment thesis. For one, it does not hold water in a historical context. Looking back at S&amp;P returns since 1925\u2014which, to note, the formal S&amp;P 500 index was formed later but there are early records available\u2014the average return for the month of May is +0.3%. February has historically been a weaker month (+0.2%), and there was only one month that averaged negative returns (September, -0.8%).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><u><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-market-strategy-report?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=mitchsmailbox_market_strategy_zim_05_29_2025&amp;content=market_strategy_report\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-market-strategy-report?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=mitchsmailbox_market_strategy_zim_05_29_2025&amp;content=market_strategy_report\">Is Now the Time to Sell\u2014or Stay the Course?<\/a><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Market uncertainty has many investors questioning their next move. But history shows that short-term selling often does more harm than good\u2014especially when the signals are mixed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Our free <strong><em><u><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-market-strategy-report?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=mitchsmailbox_market_strategy_zim_05_29_2025&amp;content=market_strategy_report\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-market-strategy-report?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=mitchsmailbox_market_strategy_zim_05_29_2025&amp;content=market_strategy_report\">May 2025 Zacks Market Strategy Report<sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/u><\/em><\/strong> explains why reactive moves fall short\u2014and what\u2019s ahead for the market. Topics covered in this month\u2019s report include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The U.S. economy&#8217;s surprising strength in Q1 2025<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Central banks are cutting rates. One holdout: the U.S. Federal Reserve<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Understanding earnings revisions trends<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bottom line for investors<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn more about strategic investment opportunities, click the link below to get your free guide today!<br>\u00a0<br><strong><u><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-market-strategy-report?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=mitchsmailbox_market_strategy_zim_05_29_2025&amp;content=market_strategy_report\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-market-strategy-report?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=mitchsmailbox_market_strategy_zim_05_29_2025&amp;content=market_strategy_report\">Download Your Copy of <em>Zacks May 2025 Market Strategy Report Today<\/em>!<sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking more broadly at the theory that May to October returns are weaker historically than November to April, there\u2019s a fair point to be made there. History shows that to be the case. But weaker returns do not mean <em>negative returns. <\/em>In fact, the May 1 to October 31 timeframe has been positive over 70% of the time, which means your chances of getting the trade correct are pretty slim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In my view, it is not worth it for a long-term investor to potentially miss out on further gains just because of a calendar quirk that only works sometimes. As demonstrated above, markets do not follow calendars, and so investors shouldn\u2019t either (unless you are making some changes for tax purposes at the end of a given year, perhaps). In my view, investors would be assuming more risk trying to time the market than just focusing on a longer-term strategy and outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019re still in a period of trade and economic uncertainty, to be sure, and I expect more volatility in the months ahead. But volatility works both ways, and as we have already seen in recent weeks, the administration can pivot quickly on trade policy. There have mostly been positive surprises since \u201cLiberation Day,\u201d which has largely driven the rally. Underlying economic fundamentals remain strong, so more positive surprises from here would result in further gains, in my view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the end of the day, there are not really circumstances\u2014and certainly not the \u201csell in May\u201d mantra\u201d\u2014that make it a good idea to try and time the market over a three-month period. I\u2019d rather take the longer view, set my course, and stick to it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With market uncertainty ahead, staying informed is key. Our free <strong><em><u><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-market-strategy-report?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=mitchsmailbox_market_strategy_zim_05_29_2025&amp;content=market_strategy_report\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-market-strategy-report?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=mitchsmailbox_market_strategy_zim_05_29_2025&amp;content=market_strategy_report\">May 2025 Zacks Market Strategy Report<sup>3<\/sup> <\/a><\/u><\/em><\/strong>breaks down what\u2019s happening and why the biggest moves may still be coming. Download your copy now for insights on topics, such as:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The U.S. economy&#8217;s surprising strength in Q1 2025<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Central banks are cutting rates. One holdout: the U.S. Federal Reserve<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Understanding earnings revisions trends<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bottom line for investors<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn more about strategic investment opportunities, click the link below to get your free guide today!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mitch explains why timing the market based on old calendar rules could cost long-term investors more than it helps.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":13575,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[66,71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13785","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mitchs-mailbox","category-private-client-group"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13785","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13785"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13785\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13786,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13785\/revisions\/13786"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13575"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13785"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13785"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13785"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}