{"id":13902,"date":"2025-09-02T14:22:27","date_gmt":"2025-09-02T14:22:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/?p=13902"},"modified":"2025-09-02T14:22:28","modified_gmt":"2025-09-02T14:22:28","slug":"the-september-rate-cut-wont-have-a-big-impact","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/the-september-rate-cut-wont-have-a-big-impact\/","title":{"rendered":"The September Rate Cut Won’t Have A Big Impact\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Why a September Rate Cut Likely Won\u2019t Impact Markets Much<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The financial media and many in the investor community are eyeing the Fed\u2019s September meeting with bated breath. I\u2019m already looking past it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At this stage, markets are pricing in a 100% probability of a 25-basis-point cut, with a very small chance of a larger 50-point move. As I\u2019ve written many times before, markets move on surprises, not widely known information. When it comes to the upcoming Fed decision, the surprise factor is essentially nil. The Fed has been telegraphing its thinking pretty clearly for weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rate cuts make for dramatic headlines, but in practice, they rarely alter the trend already in motion. When the Fed started cutting rates in January 2001 (nearly a year into the dot-com bust), stocks fell another 40% before finally bottoming in 2002. When the Fed cut rates in September 2007, the S&P 500 peaked just a few weeks later. The Global Financial Crisis followed. On both occasions, the cuts were real-time responses to worsening conditions, not tools that fundamentally changed the direction of the cycle.1<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Data Behind This Market and What It Means for Your Portfolio<\/a><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets are already anticipating the Fed\u2019s next move, but rate cuts alone don\u2019t determine long-term returns. What really matters is the data, and today\u2019s fundamentals tell a more complicated story.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our August Stock Market Outlook Report2<\/sup><\/a><\/u><\/em><\/strong> we break down the key fundamentals shaping today\u2019s market, including:<\/p>\n\n\n\n