{"id":13919,"date":"2025-09-10T19:29:04","date_gmt":"2025-09-10T19:29:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/?p=13919"},"modified":"2025-09-10T19:29:06","modified_gmt":"2025-09-10T19:29:06","slug":"weak-jobs-reports-inflation-worries-and-the-feds-next-move","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/weak-jobs-reports-inflation-worries-and-the-feds-next-move\/","title":{"rendered":"Weak Jobs Reports, Inflation Worries, And The Fed&#8217;s Next Move"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>Laura J. from Columbus, OH asks<\/em>: Hi Mitch, I saw that there was a really weak jobs report from August, which makes it seem like interest rates will be coming down finally. Is this also what you\u2019re anticipating?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Mitch\u2019s Response:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let\u2019s start with the jobs report, then I\u2019ll weigh in on rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The August employment report was indeed weak, which essentially locks in a Fed rate cut this month. So far in 2025, the U.S. has added fewer than 600,000 jobs, making this the slowest start to a year for job growth (outside the pandemic) since 2009. Private-sector hiring has averaged just 74,000 jobs per month, down from about 130,000 last year. And if you strip out health services, healthcare and social assistance, the picture looks even weaker. That sector has been adding roughly 64,000 jobs monthly this year. Without it, the rest of the private sector would be contributing only about 9,000 jobs per month, and the private sector would have actually lost jobs in August.<sup>1<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Outside of healthcare, the slowdown is broad-based. Manufacturing and construction both showed sharp declines in August. Businesses have also been hesitant to expand payrolls while they sort through policy uncertainty from new tariffs, to changes in immigration, and federal spending. That hesitation is a big reason job growth has slowed so abruptly since the spring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><u><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/download-retirement-strategy-guide?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=mitchsmailbox_zim_2025_09_11&amp;content=retirement_strategy_guide\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/download-retirement-strategy-guide?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=mitchsmailbox_zim_2025_09_11&amp;content=retirement_strategy_guide\">Retirement Strategies for a Shifting Rate Environment<\/a><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Fed may be cutting rates, but that doesn\u2019t guarantee smoother markets. For retirees, the challenge remains: protecting their income and preserving wealth amid uncertainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Download our free guide, <strong><em><u><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/download-retirement-strategy-guide?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=mitchsmailbox_zim_2025_09_11&amp;content=retirement_strategy_guide\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/download-retirement-strategy-guide?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=mitchsmailbox_zim_2025_09_11&amp;content=retirement_strategy_guide\">How Solid Is Your Retirement Strategy?<sup>2<\/sup>,<\/a><\/u><\/em><\/strong> and explore strategies to keep your plan on track, no matter what the Fed does next. Inside, you\u2019ll get insights on:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The importance of flexible portfolio allocation<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Why keeping some liquid assets can potentially help you preserve more wealth<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Understanding your risk tolerance in case of a market downturn<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Plus, more strategies to help you protect your retirement assets<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>If you have $500,000 or more to invest, download our free guide to build a \u201cweatherproof\u201d retirement strategy and help safeguard your investments from future market shocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/download-retirement-strategy-guide?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=mitchsmailbox_zim_2025_09_11&amp;content=retirement_strategy_guide\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/download-retirement-strategy-guide?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=mitchsmailbox_zim_2025_09_11&amp;content=retirement_strategy_guide\"><u>Get our FREE guide: How Solid Is Your Retirement Strategy?<\/u><\/a><\/strong><sup><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/download-retirement-strategy-guide?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=mitchsmailbox_zim_2025_09_11&amp;content=retirement_strategy_guide\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/download-retirement-strategy-guide?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=mitchsmailbox_zim_2025_09_11&amp;content=retirement_strategy_guide\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This weakening backdrop is why the Fed is expected to cut again in September. Chair Jerome Powell has already indicated that officials are more concerned about employment than inflation at this stage. Markets now price in the equivalent of three straight quarter-point cuts by year-end, though the exact pace will depend on how the next inflation and jobs reports look.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One important point of clarification with regards to your question about rates coming down. Remember, the Federal Reserve sets the federal funds rate, which is a very short-term interest rate that banks charge each other. That doesn\u2019t mean mortgage rates, car loan rates, or long-term bond yields will necessarily follow. Longer-term interest rates are driven by a different mix of factors, especially expectations for future inflation. If investors believe inflation will stay stubborn, 10- and 30-year Treasury yields could remain high even as the Fed trims its short-term policy rate. That disconnect is one reason mortgage rates don\u2019t always fall during Fed cutting cycles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For investors, I\u2019d make two observations. First, the September cut is no surprise, so I wouldn\u2019t expect a big immediate reaction in markets, since these moves are already priced in. Second, the bigger story is the Fed\u2019s balancing act: trying to cushion a softening job market without reigniting inflation. Whether we end up with two cuts this year or three, the long-term driver of market returns will remain the same: earnings, investment, and consumer resilience, not the quarter-point moves at the Fed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Fed\u2019s next moves may dominate headlines, but for retirees, the real question is how to keep portfolios resilient through shifting policy, inflation pressures, and market swings. That\u2019s why we\u2019re offering our free guide, <strong><em><u><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/download-retirement-strategy-guide?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=mitchsmailbox_zim_2025_09_11&amp;content=retirement_strategy_guide\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/download-retirement-strategy-guide?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=mitchsmailbox_zim_2025_09_11&amp;content=retirement_strategy_guide\">How Solid Is Your Retirement Strategy?<sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/u><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This resource shows you how to strengthen your retirement plan so it can hold up in an environment of changing rates and economic uncertainty. You\u2019ll learn:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The importance of flexible portfolio allocation<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Why keeping some liquid assets can potentially help you preserve more wealth<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Understanding your risk tolerance in case of a market downturn<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Plus, more strategies to help you protect your retirement assets<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>If you have $500,000 or more to invest, download our free guide today!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A rate cut in September is pretty much guaranteed. The bigger story is how the Fed balances cushioning a softening job market without reigniting inflation. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":13563,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[66,71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13919","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mitchs-mailbox","category-private-client-group"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13919","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13919"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13919\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13920,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13919\/revisions\/13920"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13563"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13919"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13919"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13919"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}