{"id":13950,"date":"2025-10-06T19:58:24","date_gmt":"2025-10-06T19:58:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/?p=13950"},"modified":"2025-10-06T19:58:25","modified_gmt":"2025-10-06T19:58:25","slug":"will-a-steepening-yield-curve-boost-the-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/will-a-steepening-yield-curve-boost-the-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"Will A Steepening Yield Curve Boost The Economy?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Will a Steepening Yield Curve Boost Financials and the Broader Economy?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Conditions for a steepening yield curve are forming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark fed funds rate by 25 basis points at its September meeting, and there are indications that more rate cuts are on the horizon. If the next few meetings go as many market participants anticipate, yields on the short end of the curve are poised to keep falling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, yields on the longer end of the curve (10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasurys) have been steadily climbing. As seen on the chart below, 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yields recently brushed 5%, and the 10-year has remained above 4% all year. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Yields on 10-Year U.S Treasurys (blue line) and 30-Year U.S. Treasurys (green line)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"937\" height=\"319\" src=\"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-3.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13953\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-3.png 937w, https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-3-300x102.png 300w, https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-3-768x261.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 937px) 100vw, 937px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<sup>1<\/sup><\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><u><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-stock-market-outlook?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_blog_2025_10_06&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-stock-market-outlook?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_blog_2025_10_06&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\">Will Rising Long-Term Rates Put the Market Rally at Risk?<\/a><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Federal Reserve is cutting short-term rates, but long-term Treasury yields are rising, a pattern that\u2019s flipped the yield curve and now appears to be steepening again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Historically, this setup has signaled turning points in the market. It can push stock prices down, change which sectors lead, and unsettle investors when growth or inflation surprises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Our latest<strong> <u>Stock Market Outlook Report<\/u><\/strong> shows what this shift could mean and how to help protect and position your portfolio before Q4 volatility hits. Inside, you\u2019ll discover:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Asset allocation guidelines<\/strong> for today\u2019s market environment<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Expert forecasts<\/strong> for inflation, rates, and economic trends<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Industry tables and rankings<\/strong> to help you spot opportunities<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Buy-side and sell-side consensus<\/strong> insights at a glance<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>And much more!<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>If you have $500,000 or more to invest, claim your free copy of the report and see how today\u2019s policy shifts could shape tomorrow\u2019s opportunities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><u><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-stock-market-outlook?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_blog_2025_10_06&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-stock-market-outlook?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_blog_2025_10_06&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\">IT\u2019S FREE.\u00a0<\/a><\/u><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-stock-market-outlook?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_blog_2025_10_06&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-stock-market-outlook?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_blog_2025_10_06&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\">Download our latest <em>Stock Market Outlook Report<\/em><\/a><\/span><sup><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-stock-market-outlook?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_blog_2025_10_06&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-stock-market-outlook?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_blog_2025_10_06&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2<\/span><\/a><\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As I wrote in a recent column, there are a few reasons to believe we could see sustained pressure on long duration bond yields. Debt issuance has picked up after the summer lull, increasing supply. Sentiment could also play a role\u2014after years of near-zero interest rates and heavy central bank buying, investors have grown more sensitive to small shifts in expectations about growth, inflation, and policy. Expectations of lower growth and higher inflation can push yields up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In that same column, I framed this dynamic as a potential positive. I argued that with central banks cutting short-term rates and long yields drifting higher, yield curves could be set to steepen, which is a classic marker of healthier credit conditions since it improves incentives for banks to lend. Remember, the basic business model of banking relies on borrowing money at short-term rates and putting it to work through longer-term loans. When the yield curve slopes upward, long rates exceeding short, banks have higher incentive to extend credit widely because the margin is in their favor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The chart below shows the yield curve as the difference between yields on 3-month U.S. Treasurys and 10-year U.S. Treasurys. It\u2019s clear that the yield curve has been flat for some time, but as outlined above, there\u2019s a reasonably good thesis that we could see more steepening ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>3-Month \/ 10-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Yield Curve (below zero is inverted, above zero is steep)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"937\" height=\"319\" src=\"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13951\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-1.png 937w, https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-1-300x102.png 300w, https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-1-768x261.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 937px) 100vw, 937px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<sup>3<\/sup><\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>A steeper yield curve is generally good news, but I want to be careful not to portray it as a definitive game-changer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although the correlation is relatively tight, banks\u2019 lending margins don\u2019t map <em>directly<\/em> to government bond spreads. Banks\u2019 funding costs are shaped more by the abundance of deposits, swollen in recent years by pandemic-era fiscal transfers, than by short-term Treasury yields. Loan pricing, meanwhile, generally runs above long-term government yields, reflecting higher credit risk. This helps explain why loan growth (see chart below) has remained steady even during the curve\u2019s inversion. In other words, banks did not suddenly stop lending when the curve flipped upside down, so it\u2019s unlikely that merely un-inverting will spark a dramatic new lending boom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"937\" height=\"319\" src=\"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13952\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-2.png 937w, https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-2-300x102.png 300w, https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-2-768x261.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 937px) 100vw, 937px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<sup>4<\/sup><\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>To be sure, a modestly positive slope can provide a tailwind for Financials stocks, and it may offer some incremental support to credit creation. But as a barometer for the U.S. economy overall, the curve\u2019s current steepening is more symbolic than fundamental. The bigger picture is that lending activity never really faltered, and the economy has kept grinding ahead despite widespread worries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bottom Line for Investors<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A steepening yield curve is positive, and it can add some support for Financials. But I do not think we\u2019re in a place in this cycle where a steeper curve will fundamentally alter the economic outlook. The U.S. economy remains sturdier than many appreciate, with strong employment and steady loan growth underscoring that resilience. For investors, a steeper yield curve is something to celebrate, but it\u2019s not a panacea for weakness that could emerge elsewhere in the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s why it\u2019s important to watch what\u2019s happening beyond the curve. The bond market is shifting fast. The Fed is cutting short-term rates while long-term yields climb, creating new risks for stocks. Inflation pressures, policy changes, and stretched valuations could test portfolios in the months ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Get our latest <strong><em><u><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-stock-market-outlook?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_blog_2025_10_06&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-stock-market-outlook?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_blog_2025_10_06&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\">Stock Market Outlook Report<sup>5<\/sup><\/a><\/u><\/em><\/strong> for a clear look at what\u2019s driving markets now and how to stay positioned before Q4 volatility hits. Inside, you\u2019ll discover:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Asset allocation guidelines<\/strong> for today\u2019s market environment<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Expert forecasts<\/strong> for inflation, rates, and economic trends<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Industry tables and rankings<\/strong> to help you spot opportunities<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Buy-side and sell-side consensus<\/strong> insights at a glance<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>And much more!<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>If you have $500,000 or more to invest, claim your free copy of the report and see how today\u2019s policy shifts could shape tomorrow\u2019s opportunities.<strong><br><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-stock-market-outlook?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_blog_2025_10_06&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-stock-market-outlook?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_blog_2025_10_06&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\">IT\u2019S FREE.\u00a0<\/a><\/span><\/strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-stock-market-outlook?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_blog_2025_10_06&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-stock-market-outlook?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_blog_2025_10_06&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\">Download our latest <em>Stock Market Outlook Report<\/em><\/a><\/strong><\/span><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-stock-market-outlook?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_blog_2025_10_06&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-stock-market-outlook?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_blog_2025_10_06&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\"><sup>5<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Recent Fed rate cuts and rising yields on longer bonds (10-year and 30-year Treasurys) create a steeper yield curve. This is good news, but may not fundamentally alter the economic outlook. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":13568,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[63,71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13950","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mitch-on-the-markets","category-private-client-group"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13950","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13950"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13950\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13954,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13950\/revisions\/13954"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13568"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13950"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13950"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13950"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}