{"id":13956,"date":"2025-10-08T16:45:56","date_gmt":"2025-10-08T16:45:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/?p=13956"},"modified":"2025-10-08T16:45:57","modified_gmt":"2025-10-08T16:45:57","slug":"how-no-jobs-data-affects-planning-for-the-government-and-investors","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/how-no-jobs-data-affects-planning-for-the-government-and-investors\/","title":{"rendered":"How No Jobs Data Affects Planning\u2014For The Government and Investors"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>Derek L. from Denver, CO asks<\/em>: Hi Mitch, my question is about the absent jobs report given the government shutdown. Since rate cuts seem to be closely tied to the employment situation, won\u2019t this make it harder for them to decide what to do with rates? And if that\u2019s the case, would the lack of data cause more volatility since no one knows what to expect?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Mitch\u2019s Response:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As you point out, we\u2019ve entered October with no jobs data for September. Typically, the first Friday of the month is when we get the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) <em>Employment Situation Report<\/em>. With the ongoing government shutdown, that didn\u2019t happen. Economists, investors like yourself, and the Federal Reserve are left without a key instrument for assessing the state of the economy.<sup>1<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But this doesn\u2019t mean there are no jobs data anywhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In fact, there\u2019s actually quite a bit of data out there, which comes from the private sector. For instance, ADP\u2019s payroll data, drawn from more than 26 million workers, showed private-sector employment <em>fell<\/em> by about 32,000 in September. Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas found hiring plans have dropped to their lowest level since 2009, with job cuts so far this year near their highest since 2020. Small-business data from Intuit\u2019s QuickBooks platform showed firms with fewer than 10 employees cut nearly 50,000 jobs last month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><u><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/bond-ladders?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=mitchsmailbox_zim_2025_10_09&amp;content=bond_laders\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/bond-ladders?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=mitchsmailbox_zim_2025_10_09&amp;content=bond_laders\">Your Guide to Bond Ladders in Volatile Markets<\/a><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With the September jobs report missing and the Fed weighing additional rate cuts, interest rates remain in flux. For income-focused investors, that uncertainty makes it hard to know whether to lock in yields now or stay short and wait.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Our free guide, <strong><em><u><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/bond-ladders?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=mitchsmailbox_zim_2025_10_09&amp;content=bond_laders\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/bond-ladders?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=mitchsmailbox_zim_2025_10_09&amp;content=bond_laders\">Bond Ladders in an Uncertain Interest Rate Environment<sup>2<\/sup><\/a>,<\/u><\/em><\/strong> explains how a well-structured ladder can provide steady income today while preserving flexibility for whatever the Fed does next. Inside, you\u2019ll discover:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>What is a bond ladder, and how do they work?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>How to construct and manage a bond ladder<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The pros and cons of bond ladders<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bottom line for investors<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>If you have $500,000 or more, click the link below to download your free guide today!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><u><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/bond-ladders?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=mitchsmailbox_zim_2025_10_09&amp;content=bond_laders\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/bond-ladders?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=mitchsmailbox_zim_2025_10_09&amp;content=bond_laders\">Get Our FREE Guide: <em>Bond Ladders in an Uncertain Interest Rate Environment<sup>2<\/sup><\/em><\/a><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These data paint a fairly weak picture. But on the other hand, the Chicago Fed\u2019s new real-time unemployment estimate held steady at 4.3%, suggesting the labor market isn\u2019t collapsing. It just isn\u2019t adding much new hiring momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What we\u2019re essentially left with is a mosaic of data to parse from. The indicators we\u2019re watching paint a picture of a labor market that\u2019s stagnating. Job creation has slowed sharply since spring, layoffs have picked up in some areas, and both manufacturing and services purchasing managers\u2019 indexes show employment contracting modestly. We think this weak overall tone, across multiple measures, is likely enough to keep the Fed on track for additional rate cuts this fall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But here\u2019s the important point: while missing the BLS report is inconvenient, it probably doesn\u2019t change much for investors. The Fed will still make decisions based on the best available evidence, and markets have already had months to digest signs of cooling. Stocks are forward-looking, they don\u2019t wait for backward-looking government data to confirm what private data and market prices already suggest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There\u2019s also a bit of irony in all the angst about flying blind. Even when the BLS is open, its jobs reports are far from perfect. They\u2019re based on surveys with declining response rates, subject to revisions, and often tell a different story months later than they do on release day. In some ways, drawing on multiple data sources\u2014ADP, Challenger, the PMIs, and others\u2014can actually provide a more rounded real-time view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, while the shutdown is frustrating and the data blackout adds uncertainty for policymakers, investors shouldn\u2019t overreact. The broader picture shows a slowing but still expanding economy, with inflation gradually easing and with a Fed inclined to keep trimming rates. If anything, the private reports hint that the labor market is soft enough to keep that easing path in motion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Investors don\u2019t need perfect jobs data to make smart decisions. Even with the current data gaps and an uncertain rate path, you can still build a fixed-income plan that balances income with flexibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One practical tool is the <strong>bond ladder<\/strong>, a way to lock in income now while keeping options open if the Fed continues to adjust rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Our free guide, <strong><em><u><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/bond-ladders?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=mitchsmailbox_zim_2025_10_09&amp;content=bond_laders\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/bond-ladders?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=mitchsmailbox_zim_2025_10_09&amp;content=bond_laders\">Bond Ladders in an Uncertain Interest Rate Environment<sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/u><\/em><\/strong>, explains how ladders work, how to build one, and the key benefits and trade-offs to consider. Inside, you\u2019ll find insights such as:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>What is a bond ladder, and how do they work?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>How to construct and manage a bond ladder<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The pros and cons of bond ladders<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bottom line for investors<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>If you have $500,000 or more, click the link below to download your free guide today!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>the government shutdown means we didn&#8217;t get September jobs data. Fortunately, other private data sources offer some idea of employment and overall economic health.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":13575,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[66,71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13956","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mitchs-mailbox","category-private-client-group"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13956","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13956"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13956\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13957,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13956\/revisions\/13957"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13575"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13956"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13956"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13956"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}