The Disconnect in U.S. Manufacturing: Jobs vs. Output \u2013<\/strong> U.S. manufacturing is showing signs of life.Since early 2025, U.S. manufacturing output has risen by approximately 2.3%, with shipments climbing even faster. The U.S. is producing more of what the world currently needs, particularly in areas tied to artificial intelligence and aerospace. In fact, in several high-growth sectors, domestic production and imports are rising together, not competing. That\u2019s a sign of growing demand and expansion, not necessarily \u2018reshoring.\u2019 Some may argue that what we\u2019re seeing in this data is a sign that tariffs are working. But that\u2019s not actually what\u2019s happening. In tariff-protected industries like autos and furniture, both imports and domestic output have declined. Meanwhile, sectors aligned with long-term demand trends\u2014semiconductors, data center infrastructure, aerospace\u2014are seeing meaningful growth, largely independent of trade policy. Underlying economic forces and trends are driving the growth, not policy. What confuses the manufacturing revival narrative even further is the labor market. Since early 2025, manufacturing jobs have fallen by roughly 100,000, reinforcing the narrative of industrial decline. The chart below illustrates the disconnect, as readers can see steadily declining manufacturing employment (green line, right axis) versus steadily improving manufacturing output (blue line, left axis).1<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n Take a Closer Look at Your Strategy in Today\u2019s Market<\/a><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Growth is not moving in sync. Business investment is strong, but consumer demand is slowing, and risks are building beneath the surface. For retirees, the challenge is not just volatility. It is staying properly positioned as conditions shift.<\/p>\n\n\n\n To stay prepared, download our free guide, How Solid Is Your Retirement Strategy?<\/u><\/em><\/a><\/strong>2<\/a><\/sup>, to learn:<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you have $500,000 or more to invest, get our free guide by clicking on the link below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Get our FREE guide: How Solid Is Your Retirement Strategy?<\/u><\/a><\/strong>3<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n More recently, employment data has begun to stabilize, suggesting the gap between jobs and output may be narrowing.But again, the driver of job stabilization would not be policy. It would be capital, innovation, and end-market demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Business Borrowing Is Sending a More Encouraging Signal Than Consumer Credit<\/strong> \u2013 With Q1 2026 earnings season underway, we\u2019ve received insights from the first block of big companies to report: banks. One of the key takeaways we\u2019ve seen so far in early reports is that business borrowing remains strong. Several of the largest U.S. banks reported robust commercial loan growth in the first quarter, with increases ranging from roughly 9% to over 18% year-over-year. Bank of America posted more than 12% growth in commercial loans, while Wells Fargo reported a 16.4% jump. JPMorgan Chase, the largest U.S. lender, saw its commercial loan book rise about 18% to $872.7 billion. Corporations are surely taking advantage of tight spreads, but it also indicates that quality companies are investing, strengthening their balance sheets, or both. On the other side of the ledger, however, consumer borrowing has been far more subdued. Consumer loan balances at major banks grew in the low single digits\u2014around 3% to 4% in many cases\u2014and in some instances were flat or declining. From a macro perspective, business lending is the more economically sensitive driver. Loans to companies typically fund capital investment, inventory builds, hiring, and expansion, all of which contribute directly to economic growth and corporate earnings. To be fair, some firms may be pulling forward financing amid uncertainty around interest rates, particularly as inflation tied to energy shocks complicates the policy outlook. Still, the scale of the increase suggests that businesses are not retreating.4<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n Yet Another Test for Private Credit \u2013 <\/strong>It\u2019s been a challenging year for private credit, and the industry is facing yet another test. This time, it\u2019s from the U.S. government. According to reports, the SEC has opened several enforcement investigations into large private-credit managers, while the Treasury Department and bank regulators are seeking more information on leverage, valuations, and links to the broader financial system. The scrutiny comes as investors requested to withdraw more than $20 billion from certain private-credit funds in the first quarter, though only about $11 billion was actually redeemed, highlighting both rising caution and the limits built into these semi-liquid vehicles. This story should not signal to investors that regulators see an immediate systemic crisis. But they do appear increasingly focused on a few key fault lines: how private loans are valued, whether managers are following disclosed policies, and how much exposure banks and insurers may ultimately have to the sector. One recent government estimate put bank and nonbank lending exposure to private credit at roughly $410 billion to $540 billion. For investors, this is a cautionary tale of a market built on limited transparency, infrequent pricing, and constrained liquidity, which is now being tested by slower inflows, higher withdrawals, and tougher oversight. As long as credit losses remain contained, the sector may weather the pressure. But this is a reminder that in private markets, stability can look abundant, right up until investors start asking for their money back.5<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n Download Our Retirement Strategy Overview Built for Today\u2019s Markets – <\/strong>Markets are changing, and small missteps can have a bigger impact. Staying properly positioned is key to protecting what you\u2019ve built.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Download our free guide, How Solid Is Your Retirement Strategy?<\/u><\/em><\/a><\/strong>6<\/a><\/sup>, for insights to help you stay on track, including:<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you have $500,000 or more to invest, get our free guide today!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Manufacturing in U.S. sees disconnect between rising output and shipments vs. declining jobs; U.S. commercial loans show robust growth; SEC investigates private credit industry. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":13557,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[63,73],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14185","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mitch-on-the-markets","category-steady-investors-week"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14185","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14185"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14185\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14187,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14185\/revisions\/14187"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13557"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14185"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14185"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14185"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"\"](\"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-9.png\")
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