{"id":14354,"date":"2026-09-22T13:42:16","date_gmt":"2026-09-22T13:42:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/?p=14354"},"modified":"2026-09-22T13:42:17","modified_gmt":"2026-09-22T13:42:17","slug":"why-the-market-got-choppy-this-week","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/why-the-market-got-choppy-this-week\/","title":{"rendered":"Why the Market Got Choppy This Week"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>More Market Volatility May Be Coming\u2014and That\u2019s OK<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After a strong second quarter when stocks rebounded sharply from war- and energy-driven volatility, equity and fixed income markets have settled into a more unsettled holding pattern. Selling pressure has appeared in spurts, and the day-to-day trading environment has become noticeably less comfortable.<sup>1<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Volatility Index (VIX) has ticked higher over the past several weeks, as investors seem to be pricing in more uncertainty than they were earlier this summer.<sup>2<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>CBOE Volatility Index: VIX<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"213\" src=\"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-3.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14355\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-3.png 624w, https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-3-300x102.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<sup>3<\/sup><\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><u><a href=\"https:\/\/go.zacksim.com\/stock-market-outlook?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_zim_2026_09_21&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.zacksim.com\/stock-market-outlook?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_zim_2026_09_21&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\">A Second Opinion on the Portfolio You Already Own<\/a><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A new tool from Zacks for hands-on investors: <strong><u><a href=\"https:\/\/go.zacksim.com\/stock-market-outlook?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_zim_2026_09_21&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.zacksim.com\/stock-market-outlook?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_zim_2026_09_21&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\">Zacks Insight<sup>4<\/sup><\/a><\/u><\/strong> gives you a fiduciary second opinion on your portfolio \u2014 it reads what you own, applies 40+ years of Zacks Research, and shows you a more disciplined version of the same portfolio. And when a decision needs human judgment, a licensed representative is one message away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Zacks research, applied to your portfolio:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Fund x-ray<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 your ETFs and mutual funds opened up to the holdings inside them<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Real exposure<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 where your money sits by sector, company size, and value vs. growth<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Concentration risk<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 how much rides on your largest positions, and how diversified you really are<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Benchmarked<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 your risk, valuation, and earnings growth measured against the S&amp;P 500<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Adding your portfolio doesn&#8217;t commit you to anything. If you like to dig into the details of your own portfolio, get your second opinion: <strong><u><a href=\"https:\/\/go.zacksim.com\/stock-market-outlook?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_zim_2026_09_21&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.zacksim.com\/stock-market-outlook?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_zim_2026_09_21&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\">Zacks Insight<sup>4<\/sup><\/a><\/u><\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The rising volatility and selling pressure haven\u2019t emerged out of thin air.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oil is one obvious source of concern. U.S. crude prices have risen about 20% over the past three weeks to over $100 per barrel, while diesel has climbed to a record $6.23 per gallon and gasoline has rebounded to $4.32 (as I write). At the same time, commercial fuel inventories have been drawing down, and disruptions to Saudi Arabia\u2019s East-West pipeline have reportedly removed another 2.5 million barrels per day of supply from an already tight global market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We know that some of the buffers that helped absorb the initial energy shock earlier this year have diminished. But even still, $100 oil itself has never been an especially useful market threshold. Between 2008 and the start of 2026, Brent closed above $100 per barrel in over 200 weeks, and equity markets rose in forward 12-month periods over 80% of the time. In other words, the bull market and the economy withstood higher oil much of the time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In my view, the more important risk today is persistence\u2014whether elevated energy costs last long enough to weaken consumer spending, business activity, and corporate earnings. This risk remains on our radar, but we\u2019re not seeing signs of it yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Interest rates are another source of pressure. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly touched 5% this week, after starting the year near 4.15%. That\u2019s a substantial jump, and higher yields can of course increase borrowing costs throughout the economy and place pressure on stock valuations, particularly when rates move quickly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But here too, the market has shown an ability to absorb the move. The S&amp;P 500 remains up more than 10% this year despite the steady rise in yields. Strong earnings and economic growth can provide support as rates move higher, and we\u2019ve been fortunate to see record-level earnings from Corporate America. Estimates for future quarters keep moving higher as well, which is the reason I think the 10-year at 5% didn\u2019t trigger a major equity market move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Finally, investors are once again adjusting expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Going into Wednesday\u2019s policy meeting, markets were assigning a roughly 85% probability to a September rate hike, following August\u2019s CPI print of 3.4%. With the Fed raising rates a quarter point, the market got what it expected, but the choppiness leading up to the decision may have been about resetting expectations. As I\u2019ve written many times before, a quarter-point move by itself is unlikely to determine the market\u2019s long-term direction, but rapid changes in Fed expectations can produce meaningful short-term swings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Taken together, there is plenty here to give markets a reason to remain choppy, which is why I implied in the title that more volatility may be coming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But here\u2019s why that\u2019s ok.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When markets rise steadily for months, normal volatility starts to feel abnormal. A 2% down day feels ominous. A 5% pullback over a few weeks can attract warnings about what could come next, and a 10% correction can suddenly feel like evidence that the entire investment thesis has changed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But investors need to remember that volatility serves an important purpose in markets. Prices constantly adjust as investors digest new information, reassess risks, and change their expectations about future earnings. Corrections can temper excessive optimism, reset valuations, and force investors to become more discerning about what they own. In that sense, the occasional pullback is a sign that markets are functioning normally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Bottom Line for Investors<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A meaningful correction at some point would hardly surprise me\u2014and by itself, it would not change my long-term view. Volatility is part of how markets reset expectations, reprice risk, and ultimately create healthier conditions for future gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For investors, the more important question is whether anything fundamental has changed in your financial goals, time horizon, or long-term investment thesis. If the answer is no, a period of market turbulence is usually a reason to stay disciplined\u2014not a reason to abandon the plan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><u><a href=\"https:\/\/go.zacksim.com\/stock-market-outlook?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_zim_2026_09_21&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.zacksim.com\/stock-market-outlook?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_zim_2026_09_21&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\">A Second Opinion on the Portfolio You Already Own<\/a><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A new tool from Zacks for hands-on investors: <strong><u><a href=\"https:\/\/go.zacksim.com\/stock-market-outlook?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_zim_2026_09_21&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.zacksim.com\/stock-market-outlook?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_zim_2026_09_21&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\">Zacks Insight<sup>5<\/sup><\/a><\/u><\/strong> gives you a fiduciary second opinion on your portfolio \u2014 it reads what you own, applies 40+ years of Zacks Research, and shows you a more disciplined version of the same portfolio. And when a decision needs human judgment, a licensed representative is one message away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Zacks research, applied to your portfolio:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Fund x-ray<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 your ETFs and mutual funds opened up to the holdings inside them<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Real exposure<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 where your money sits by sector, company size, and value vs. growth<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Concentration risk<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 how much rides on your largest positions, and how diversified you really are<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Benchmarked<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 your risk, valuation, and earnings growth measured against the S&amp;P 500<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Adding your portfolio doesn&#8217;t commit you to anything. If you like to dig into the details of your own portfolio, get your second opinion: <a href=\"https:\/\/go.zacksim.com\/stock-market-outlook?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_zim_2026_09_21&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.zacksim.com\/stock-market-outlook?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_zim_2026_09_21&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\"><strong><u>Zacks Insight<sup>5<\/sup><\/u><\/strong>.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>VIX ticks up as crude tops $100 and the 10-year flirts with 5%<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":13553,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[63,71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14354","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mitch-on-the-markets","category-private-client-group"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14354","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14354"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14354\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14356,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14354\/revisions\/14356"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13553"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14354"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14354"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14354"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}