{"id":7974,"date":"2019-03-25T19:43:27","date_gmt":"2019-03-25T19:43:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zackspcg.com\/blog\/?p=7974"},"modified":"2022-02-26T13:07:21","modified_gmt":"2022-02-26T13:07:21","slug":"what-to-do-when-growth-stocks-stop-growing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/what-to-do-when-growth-stocks-stop-growing\/","title":{"rendered":"What to do when growth stocks stop growing"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The broad outlook for U.S. corporate earnings is getting\nweaker, seemingly by the day. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For Q1\n2019, total S&amp;P 500 earnings are expected to decline -3.6% from the same\nperiod last year, though on +4.8% higher revenues. Growth is expected to be\nnegative for 9 of the 16 Zacks sectors, with Technology and Energy as the\nbiggest drags. All that said, we could be looking at the first earnings decline\nsince the second quarter of 2016.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Technology\nsector earnings are expected to decline -10% from the same period last year on\n+3% higher revenues, with the semiconductor space potentially serving as the\nbiggest drag. But even if we remove tech\u2019s impact on total S&amp;P 500 earnings\nfor the quarter, we would still get a negative reading by our estimates: down\n-1.5% from a year ago.<sup>1<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-stock-market-outlook?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_blog_2019_3-24&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\">Focus on Quality with Our Stock Market Outlook Report!<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let\u2019s face it \u2013 this bull market is old. And this means\ninvestors need to consider how to posture portfolios for a late cycle, mature\nbull market. In my opinion, that means shifting your portfolio management\nmindset to focus on quality and reliable earnings. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Where should you look to find this <em>quality<\/em>? Our just-released Stock Market Outlook report can help you\nkeep an eye on key economic indicators to help you focus on quality and base\nyour investments on hard data.<br>\n<br>\nThis 22-page report contains some of our key forecasts to consider such as:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Will\n2019 stay bullish or is a bear around the corner?<\/li><li>Zacks\nglobal markets\u2019 outlook<\/li><li>What\nsectors show the best opportunity?<\/li><li>What\nindustries within those sectors most merit your attention?<\/li><li>Forecast\nfor the S&amp;P<\/li><li>Small-cap\nvs. large-cap returns<\/li><li>And\nmuch more. <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>If you have\n$500,000 or more to invest and want to learn more about these forecasts, click\non the link below to get your free report today!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-stock-market-outlook?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_blog_2019_3-24&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\">IT&#8217;S FREE. Download the Just-Released Stock Market Outlook<\/a><sup><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-stock-market-outlook?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_blog_2019_3-24&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\">2<\/a><\/sup><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-stock-market-outlook?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_blog_2019_3-24&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\"> >><\/a><\/strong>\u00a0<br> <br> &#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As you\ncan see from the chart below detailing quarterly earnings and revenue growth,\nthere\u2019s a stark contrast from last year\u2019s performance to this year\u2019s expected\nresult:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Sugar Rush of the\nTax Cut May be Fading Fast<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/Screen-Shot-2019-03-22-at-9.35.38-AM-1024x481.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7975\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Indeed,\nfor full-year 2019, total earnings for the S&amp;P 500 index are expected to be\nup a paltry +2.5% on +4% higher revenues, which is obviously a far cry from the\nrobust +23.3% earnings growth on +8.8% higher revenues we saw in 2018.<sup>3<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In short, the\nimmediate impact of the tax cut was significant and the growth created was substantial,\nbut the momentum may be fading just as fast. The challenge for investors will\nbe to find companies that continue generating solid profits even as wage\npressures rise, credit markets tighten, tariffs weigh, and broad GDP growth\nlevels off. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One place to look\nmay be in the \u201cValue\u201d category or within defensive categories, like Staples and\nUtilities. Over the course of this entire bull market, growth stocks (like\nFAANG) have far outpaced value stocks (think blue chips). If one compares the\nRussell 3000 Value Index to the Russell 3000 Growth Index, this outperformance\nis plain to see.<sup>4<\/sup> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Which brings up a\nvalid argument \u2013 is it possible that Value is poised to outperform Growth looking\nahead, in a period when economic growth is expected to be modest and interest\nrates are expected to be higher? I think it\u2019s a distinct possibility in the\nmedium term, and perhaps a strong possibility in the short term. If uncertainty\nabout the growth outlook grows with time, and as corporations reduce earnings\nexpectations, investors may pivot to favoring companies with reliable earnings.\nAnd those companies, generally speaking, often reside in the Value and\ndefensive categories. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bottom Line for\nInvestors <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The very strong growth we experienced in 2018\nwas primarily because of the tax cut legislation, in my view. The pure\narithmetic of the lower corporate tax rate represented a one-time boost to\ncorporate bottom lines, which will be part of base comparisons for this year \u2013\nand will also serve to make earnings in 2019 look weak by comparison. On top of\nthis comparability issue is the impact of slowing economic growth, particularly\nbeyond U.S. shores.<sup>5<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What\u2019s more, these low growth expectations\nfor the coming quarters still remain vulnerable to further downward revisions,\nwhich would only serve to increase uncertainty. In uncertain times, investors\nmay be best served looking for reliable earnings. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To help you get\na closer look into earnings and more, I am offering all readers our <strong>Just-Released\nApril 2019 Stock Market Outlook Report.<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This Special\nReport is packed with newly revised predictions that can help you base your\nnext investment move on hard data. For example, you&#8217;ll discover Zacks\u2019 view on:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Will\n2019 stay bullish?<\/li><li>Zacks\nglobal markets\u2019 outlook<\/li><li>What\nsectors show the best opportunity?<\/li><li>What\nindustries within those sectors most merit your attention?<\/li><li>Forecast\nfor the S&amp;P<\/li><li>Small-cap\nvs. large-cap returns<\/li><li>And\nmuch more. <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn more about these forecasts, click on the link below to get your free report today! <sup>6<\/sup> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The broad outlook for U.S. corporate earnings is getting weaker, seemingly by the day. For Q1 2019, total S&amp;P 500 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":7436,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[63,71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7974","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mitch-on-the-markets","category-private-client-group"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7974","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7974"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7974\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10776,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7974\/revisions\/10776"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7974"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7974"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7974"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}