{"id":8020,"date":"2019-05-13T16:36:23","date_gmt":"2019-05-13T16:36:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zackspcg.com\/blog\/?p=8020"},"modified":"2022-02-26T13:07:18","modified_gmt":"2022-02-26T13:07:18","slug":"is-inflation-a-thing-of-the-past","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/is-inflation-a-thing-of-the-past\/","title":{"rendered":"Is inflation a thing of the past?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u2018Inflation\u2019 used to be a word that, when\ndiscussed in economic circles, often dealt in worrisome implications \u2013 fear of\ntoo much inflation or concern over not enough inflation (or at worst,\ndeflation). Rarely have we seen inflation running at subdued, acceptable levels\nfor long stretches of time, as we have arguably seen in the last decade or so: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/fredgraph_6-1024x412.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8021\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<sup>1<\/sup><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Indeed, from 1965 through the late 1980s, inflation posed a\nstubborn risk to U.S. economic health and growth. In the post-war boom with\nbaby-boomers and women entering the workforce in droves, the Federal Reserve\u2019s\nessential task was keeping inflation in check. So critical was the need to\ncontrol inflation that in 1977, Congress mandated the Fed to \u201cpromote\neffectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate\nlong-term interest rates.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The early 1990s saw the Fed\u2019s inflation target land in the\n1.5% to 2% range, and following the Great Recession, the Fed moved to make the\nofficial target 2%. As you can see from the chart above, much of the current\neconomic expansion has featured inflation just under the Fed\u2019s official target\n\u2013 even with the U.S. economy at full employment and interest rates near\nhistoric lows. The question is, why and how has inflation remained so low?<sup>2<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>__________________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-stock-market-outlook?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_blog_2019_5_12&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\">Focus on Fundamentals Instead of Inflation!<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Inflation remaining at such subdued levels for so long can\nmake many investors fear that it cannot last. But my recommendation would be\nnot to let your emotions and fears get the best of you. Instead, stay focused\non the fundamentals and other critical economic indicators. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To help you do just that, I am offering you our just-released\nStock Market Outlook Report right now. This 22-page report is packed with some\nof our key forecasts and facts to consider such as:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>For how long will 2019 stay bullish?<\/li><li>Zacks global markets\u2019 outlook<\/li><li>What sectors show the best opportunity?<\/li><li>What industries within those sectors most merit your\nattention?<\/li><li>Forecast for the S&amp;P<\/li><li>Small-cap vs. large-cap returns<\/li><li>And much more.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn more\nabout these forecasts, click on the link below to get your free report today!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-stock-market-outlook?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_blog_2019_5_12&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\">IT&#8217;S FREE. Download the Stock Market Outlook Now<\/a><sup><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-stock-market-outlook?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_blog_2019_5_12&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>__________________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>2 Reasons Inflation has not\nResponded to Low Interest Rates and Full Employment<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So where did all the inflation go? I think you\ncould point to two key drivers that are keeping prices in check, even without\nthe Federal Reserve\u2019s or other central bank\u2019s involvement. They are: <strong>technological innovation and global supply\nchains.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the technological innovation front, there\nis constant downward pressure on prices as technological innovation reduces the\nneed for certain goods and services. Smartphones, for example, have reduced\ndemand for cameras, which have driven prices lower. Technological innovation\nalso puts pressure <em>on its own prices<\/em>,\nas new iterations of smartphones and other gadgets put downward pressure on the\ngadgets themselves. Finally, technological innovation has also increased labor\nproductivity, thereby reducing unit labor costs. In a statistical analysis produced\nby the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the research found that an increase\nin labor productivity of three percentage points is associated with a reduction\nof inflation by about two percentage points.<sup>4<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As long as this innovation persists and\ncreates new efficiencies in the U.S. economy, I would argue that the downward\npressure on prices is not likely to subside anytime soon, regardless of the\nmonetary policy stance of the Fed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The existence and increasing complexity of\nglobal supply chains is another factor I would cite as a key driver of low\ninflation. Although it seems as though protectionist rhetoric and policy is in\nvogue at the current economic moment, I do not think it\u2019s likely to impact the\nalready existing and rapidly growing supply chains across the world. As the\ncost of producing goods in other countries and the cost of moving the goods\nacross the world lower with competition and innovation, so too will prices\npassed along to consumers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bottom Line for\nInvestors <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking back to the original question posed in the title of\nthis week\u2019s column, \u201cIs Inflation No Longer a Threat to the U.S. Economy?\u201d, I\nwould argue that under the current circumstances \u2013 with technological\ninnovation and global supply chains keeping downward pressure on prices even as\nunemployment is historically low \u2013 inflation is arguably pretty low on the list\nof concerns facing the U.S. economy (and is likely to remain that way\nthroughout 2019).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One could even make the argument that when deciding the\ndirection of monetary policy, the Fed would be better served turning their\nattention to other non-inflation indicators, especially given that the U.S. is\nmore of a services-based economy today versus a goods-based economy (as it was\nwhen the Fed was originally given its mandate). An act of Congress may be\nrequired to shift this Fed mandate, which is to say, don\u2019t plan on it happening\nanytime soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the meantime, I recommend you also keep an eye on non-inflation indicators. To help you do this, you are invited to<a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-stock-market-outlook?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_blog_2019_5_12&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\">\u00a0<\/a><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-stock-market-outlook?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_blog_2019_5_12&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\">download\u00a0our Just-Released Stock Market Outlook report.<\/a><sup>5<\/sup><\/strong><br> \u00a0<br> This Special Report is packed with our newly revised predictions the remainder of 2019 that we believe can help you base your next investment move on hard data.<br> \u00a0<br> For example, you&#8217;ll discover Zacks\u2019 view on:\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><em>For how long will 2019 stay bullish?<\/em><\/li><li><em>Zacks global markets\u2019 outlook<\/em><\/li><li><em>What sectors show the best opportunity?<\/em><\/li><li><em>What industries within those sectors most merit your attention?<\/em><\/li><li><em>Forecast for the S&amp;P<\/em><\/li><li><em>Small-cap vs. large-cap returns<\/em><\/li><li><em>And much more.<\/em><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\n\nIf\nyou have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn more about these\nforecasts, click on the link below to get your free report today!<br><br><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u2018Inflation\u2019 used to be a word that, when discussed in economic circles, often dealt in worrisome implications \u2013 fear of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":7430,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[63,71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8020","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mitch-on-the-markets","category-private-client-group"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8020","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8020"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8020\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10760,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8020\/revisions\/10760"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8020"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8020"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8020"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}