{"id":8291,"date":"2019-10-14T20:02:46","date_gmt":"2019-10-14T20:02:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zackspcg.com\/blog\/?p=8291"},"modified":"2022-02-26T13:07:09","modified_gmt":"2022-02-26T13:07:09","slug":"possible-china-mini-deal-retail-imports-surge-mortgage-rates-hold-steady","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/possible-china-mini-deal-retail-imports-surge-mortgage-rates-hold-steady\/","title":{"rendered":"Possible China \u201cMini-Deal\u201d, Retail Imports Surge, Mortgage Rates Hold Steady"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>In today\u2019s Steady\nInvestor, we look at what is going on in the markets and key takeaways for\ninvestors to consider, such as: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Retail\npurchases increase in spite of the trade war<\/li><li>Minutes from the Federal Reserve\u2019s September\nmeeting offered two revelations<\/li><li>The U.S.\nand China resumed trade talks. Is a \u201cMini-Deal\u201d next? <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>What does all this\nmean for the markets? Read on to get the details.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>U.S. \u2013 China Trade Talks to Resume: \u201cMini-Deal\u201d in the Works?<a>\u00a0 <\/a><\/strong>We would argue that a trade breakthrough between the United States and China could be a bullish event, supporting another leg of this already long-in-the-tooth bull market. But we also don\u2019t want to get anyone\u2019s hopes up \u2013 a grand trade deal between the two largest economies in the world does not seem likely this year. If anything, the two sides seem only to be drifting further apart. Trade talks resumed this week, and many market watchers (us included) are hoping that the two sides might embrace smaller concessions \u2013 a \u201cmini-deal\u201d \u2013 to at least postpone the tariff rate increases set to go into effect on October 15 and the new tariffs scheduled for December 15. These latest rounds of tariffs are the ones many expect to hit the U.S. consumer the hardest, which could ultimately deal a blow to the main lifeline of the U.S. economic expansion. Expect the equity markets to be hyper-sensitive to announcements\/developments that take place in the coming days as negotiations continue.<sup>1<\/sup> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Retail\nPurchases Rise Ahead of Tariffs \u2013 <\/strong>as the December 15\ntariffs loom, retailers are not taking their chances that a deal will be\nreached this week. Instead, imports at the U.S.\u2019s major retail container ports\nare expected to reach their highest level of the year in November, which will\neclipse the record reached last year. Interestingly, this data suggests that\nthe trade war is actually <em>increasing <\/em>imports\nfrom China and other foreign countries, rather than decreasing them as the\nTrump administration has been eager to do. Trade deficits have grown over the\nlast year as a result, with retailers hedging against uncertainty by upping\npurchases and stockpiling inventory.<sup>2 <\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>______________________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/download-ultimate-retirement-portfolio?source=blog&amp;medium=website&amp;term=steadyinvestor_blog_10_14_2019&amp;content=ultimate_retirement_portfolio \">Get These 7 Secrets to Building the Ultimate Retirement Portfolio<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong><br> \u00a0<br> With news surrounding the trade wars to the Fed cutting rates and navigating market cycles, it is no small feat to create a retirement portfolio that meets your financial goals. To build a portfolio that can potentially reach your goals, you must put some time and effort into defining your investing objectives, determining your asset allocation, and managing your investments over time.<br> \u00a0<br> If you have $500,000 or more to invest, I recommend downloading our guide\u00a0<em>7 Secrets to Building the Ultimate DIY Retirement Portfolio.<\/em>\u00a0It provides a step-by-step blueprint of our customized investing process to potentially help you build a sound retirement portfolio of your own and pursue long-term investing success.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/download-ultimate-retirement-portfolio?source=blog&amp;medium=website&amp;term=steadyinvestor_blog_10_14_2019&amp;content=ultimate_retirement_portfolio \">Download Your Copy of\u00a0<\/a><em><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/download-ultimate-retirement-portfolio?source=blog&amp;medium=website&amp;term=steadyinvestor_blog_10_14_2019&amp;content=ultimate_retirement_portfolio \">7 Secrets to Building the Ultimate DIY Retirement Portfolio.<\/a><sup><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/download-ultimate-retirement-portfolio?source=blog&amp;medium=website&amp;term=steadyinvestor_blog_10_14_2019&amp;content=ultimate_retirement_portfolio \">3<\/a><\/sup><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>_____________________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Mortgage Rates Remain\nSteady Even as Interest Rates Plummet \u2013 <\/strong>the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond\nyield has fallen sharply, from 2.66% at the beginning of the year to 1.65% as\nof October 1. Since mortgage rates are closely linked to rates on the 10-year,\nmany homeowners and first-time buyers have been eager to take advantage of the\nfalling rate environment. But many bankers and mortgage lenders have had to\ntemper that excitement, as mortgage rates have not been falling as fast as\ninterest rates this year. Since the end of June, for instance, the 10-year\nTreasury yield has fallen about 40 basis points (bps), while the average mortgage\nrate has only fallen 10 bps. According to research from Dow Jones Market Data,\nthe gap between average mortgage rates and the 10-year is the highest it\u2019s been\nin more than seven years.<sup>4 <\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Fed Pushes Ahead with\nMonetary Support, Even as Economy Appears Stable \u2013 <\/strong>minutes from the Federal\nReserve\u2019s September meeting offered two revelations: 1) there appeared to be\nmore dissent about the September rate cut than previously indicated; and 2)\nChairman Jerome Powell thinks the economy is in pretty good shape. Minutes\nshowed that \u201cseveral\u201d Fed governors wanted to keep rates on hold instead of\ncutting by 25 bps, and a \u201cfew\u201d officials believed the market was pricing in too\nmany future rate cuts by the Fed. Even as the Federal Reserve cut interest\nrates, Chairman Jerome Powell said that \u201chouseholds are in good shape,\u201d and\nthat the economy \u201cjust feels very sustainable.\u201d He added that \u201cthere\u2019s no\naspect of the economy that is booming. You\u2019ve got a solid consumer sector where\nwages are going up at the level of productivity plus inflation, job creation is\nhealthy, there\u2019s no one sector like a housing bubble, there\u2019s nothing like\nthat.\u201d<sup> 5 <\/sup>It sounds an awful lot like a \u2018goldilocks\u2019 assessment of\nthe U.S. economy, but then again, the Federal Reserve has rarely been right about\nforecasting recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the meantime, as we wait to see how this story\nand others pan out, I recommend focusing on your long-term financial goals. To\nhelp you do this we are offering our just-released free guide,&nbsp;<em>7\nSecrets to Building the Ultimate DIY Retirement Portfolio<\/em>.<sup>6<\/sup>&nbsp;It\nprovides a step-by-step blueprint of our customized investing process to\npotentially help you build a sound retirement portfolio of your own and pursue\nlong-term investing success.<br>\n&nbsp;<br>\nIf you have $500,000 or more to invest, get this\nguide to learn our ideas on the step-by-step process to building and\nmaintaining a retirement portfolio that will help you reach your goals and\nenjoy a secure retirement.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>China trade talks resume, retailers stock up just in case, rate cuts don\u2019t move mortgage rates<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":7426,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8291","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8291","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8291"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8291\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10693,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8291\/revisions\/10693"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8291"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8291"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8291"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}