{"id":8299,"date":"2019-10-21T20:48:23","date_gmt":"2019-10-21T20:48:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zackspcg.com\/blog\/?p=8299"},"modified":"2022-02-26T13:07:09","modified_gmt":"2022-02-26T13:07:09","slug":"china-phase-1-problems-possible-brexit-breakthrough-weak-september-retail","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/china-phase-1-problems-possible-brexit-breakthrough-weak-september-retail\/","title":{"rendered":"China \u201cPhase 1\u201d Problems, Possible Brexit Breakthrough, Weak September Retail"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>In today\u2019s Steady\nInvestor, we look at what is going on in the markets and key takeaways for investors to consider, such as:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>U.S. corporate earnings are likely to report a\nsoft Q3<\/li><li>Is \u201cPhase 1\u201d of the U.S.-China Deal Already\nFalling Apart? <\/li><li>Britain and European Union negotiators reached\nan agreement on Brexit<\/li><li>Could weak\nSeptember retail sales figures be a sign of recession<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Read on to get the\ndetails!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Earnings Season Kicks\nOff on a Positive but Cautious Note \u2013 <\/strong>U.S. corporate earnings are likely to\nreport a soft Q3, with total earnings for the quarter estimated to decline -5%\non +4.2% higher revenues, according to Zacks estimates. We expect 11 of the 16\nZacks sectors to post lower earnings compared to the year-earlier period,\nincluding the high cash flow Technology sector.<sup>1<\/sup> While this may\nappear, at first glance, like negative news, there are a few factors to note.\nThe first is that this particular patch of weaker earnings was largely\nexpected, coming off high comparisons resulting from strong showings in 2018\n(the tax cut still working its way through). The second is that we do not\nexpect this weakness to span into the next couple of quarters, with positive\nyear-over-year growth expected in 2020. Finally, Q3 earnings may not ultimately\nbe as weak as expected. It\u2019s early days, but this week saw solid reports from\nsome of the U.S.\u2019s most key banks and health care companies. UnitedHealth\nGroup, Johnson &amp; Johnson, JPMorgan Chase, and Citigroup all reported strong\nearnings that added a shot of early optimism into earnings season.<sup>2<\/sup> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>__________________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/retirement-uncertainties-guide?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=steadyinvestor_blog_2019_10_19&amp;content=retirement_uncertainies_guide\">How Can You Prepare for Retirement Uncertainties?<\/a><\/strong><br> \u00a0<br> There are so many unknowns that come with planning your retirement \u2013 what if the market crashes or a medical emergency arises? No one can predict if these what-ifs will materialize\u2014but there are simple steps you can take NOW to help ensure your secure and comfortable retirement.<br> \u00a0<br> Get our practical advice that is based on decades of experience and can potentially guard your retirement assets against the \u201cwhat ifs\u201d in life, including:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>How to counteract the effects of rising inflation<\/li><li>Ideas to allocate your assets to defend against a correction or crash<\/li><li>Strategies to deal with financial emergencies without liquidating investments<\/li><li>Tax planning ideas to help avoid unpleasant surprises<\/li><li>Plus more ways to help protect yourself and your family against retirement unknowns<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>If you have $500,000 or more to invest,<strong>\u00a0download our\u00a0<\/strong><em><strong>Retirement Uncertainties\u2026and How to Breeze Through.<\/strong><\/em><strong><sup>3<\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>__________________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Is \u201cPhase 1\u201d of the U.S.-China Deal Already Falling Apart?<\/strong><a><strong> <\/strong><\/a>Just last week, markets were given a confidence booster with the announcement of \u201cphase 1\u201d of a trade deal between the U.S. and China. What was billed as the foundation for a broader trade deal, upon further scrutiny, revealed that there were only minor concessions and promises of delayed tariffs (U.S.) and additional agricultural purchases (China). It turns out that China\u2019s purported $50 billion of agricultural purchases \u2013 which is higher than China has historically spent \u2013 is based on conditions that the U.S. drops plans to add 15% on $156 billion of consumer goods starting on December 15. China also indicated that its agricultural spend would actually hinge on demand and market prices, which means they may have $50 billion to spend but may not ultimately go that high. Complicating matters further, the House of Representatives recently passed a bill supporting protestors in Hong Kong,<sup> 4<\/sup> which could end up irritating China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Is the Brexit\nBreakthrough Real? <\/strong>Markets were pleasantly surprised on Thursday to learn\nthat Britain and European Union negotiators had reached an agreement on Brexit.\nEarly indications show that a resolution was reached on the border between\nIreland and Northern Ireland, which to-date had been one of the thorniest\nissues in negotiations. But opposition leaders are already claiming that the\nnew Brexit deal is worse than the deal Theresa May had reached months before,\nand the terms and text of the deal are still subject to British Parliamentary\nvote, which is all but assured. It was encouraging to see two sides that were\nseemingly very far apart \u2013 Boris Johnson vs. EU leaders \u2013 manage to arrive at a\nnegotiated agreement.<sup>5<\/sup> Now the hard part begins. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Are Weak September\nRetail Sales Figures a Sign of Recession? <\/strong>As weak manufacturing data and\nnegative corporate earnings in Q3 have alerted many investors to recession\npossibility, matters were made worse this week with softening retail sales. The\nCommerce Department stated on Wednesday that retail sales fell -0.3% in\nSeptember as households cut spending on online purchases, cars, and building\nmaterials. The core figures correspond to overall consumer spending in the\nUnited States, which accounts for the largest share of the U.S. economy. But\ninvestors can temper their nervousness for two reasons: 1) monthly data are\nvolatile, and we would want to see a pattern of weak spending before raising\nred flags; and, 2) the core figure does not include most services spending,\nwhich is where a majority of U.S. consumer dollars go.<sup>6 <\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Just as we cannot predict exactly when the next recession\nwill be or how these stories will pan out, we also cannot predict life\u2019s\nuncertainties when it comes to retirement planning. No matter how carefully you\nprepare for retirement, life\u2019s unknowns can throw your plans off track.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>The effects of inflation could diminish the real\nvalue of your nest egg<\/li><li>A stock market correction or crash may cause\nyour net worth to plummet<\/li><li>Changes in your personal situation\u2014such as a\nhealth emergency\u2014could have an enormous impact on retirement.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>But you can take steps to prepare yourself and help protect\nyour secure and comfortable retirement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you have $500,000 or more to invest, get our free guide, <strong><em>Retirement\nUncertainties\u2026and How to Breeze Through Them.<\/em><\/strong><sup>7<\/sup> It provides\nadvice, based on our decades of experience, that we believe can help ensure\nthat your golden years will be comfortable and secure.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Earnings season starts slow but there\u2019s hope, do retail numbers signal recession? <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":7426,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8299","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8299","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8299"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8299\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10691,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8299\/revisions\/10691"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8299"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8299"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8299"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}