<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
Factor #1: A Positive or Negative Surprise on Trade <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n A few weeks ago, markets cheered the announcement of a\npotential \u201cPhase 1\u201d of a trade deal between the U.S. and China. It appeared as\nthough China was going to agree to new commitments on intellectual-property\nprotections, issues related to technology transfer, further liberalization of\nits markets, and a substantial increase in agricultural purchases. Fast forward\nto today, and most of that optimism has faded. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The false-positive and topsy-turvy nature of these trade\nnegotiations should surprise no one at this point, and markets do not seem\npressured by recent reports that the talks are fizzling. China has invited\nAmerican trade negotiators back to Beijing for another round of face-to-face\ntalks, but top American officials are reluctant to make the trip without firm\ncommitments that China will follow through on Phase 1 terms. Meanwhile,\nPresident Trump has threatened to raise tariffs even further if China fails to\nmeet U.S. demands.1<\/sup> <\/p>\n\n\n\n In short, the trade deal is set up now in such a way that,\nin our view, the market has priced-in gridlock. If the back-and-forth continues\nwith no deal, we do not think the market will be overly affected. But the\nfactor to watch between now and the end of the year is whether we\u2019ll be\ndelivered a huge breakthrough with an inked deal (positive surprise) or a total\ncollapse of the talks where the two sides enter \u2018cold war\u2019 mode (negative\nsurprise). In either outcome, the market could respond accordingly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n _____________________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n Get These 7 Secrets to Building the Ultimate Retirement Portfolio\u00a0<\/a><\/strong> _____________________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n Factor #2: British Elections<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Mark your calendar for Thursday, December 12. That\u2019s when 46\nmillion voters in the United Kingdom will have the option of heading to the\npolls to vote for their areas\u2019 member of Parliament (MP), which could\nultimately determine what party will gain power and form a government. The\nConservative party, currently led by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, is hoping\nthey can increase the number of MPs to pass laws more easily. They currently\nhold 298 seats, and need 326 total to have a majority.3<\/sup> <\/p>\n\n\n\n This vote is crucial because it could very well seal\nBrexit\u2019s fate. If Conservatives gain a majority in the House of Commons and\nform a government on their own, the likelihood of a \u201chard Brexit\u201d increases\nsignificantly. Leaving the European Union without a deal in place become a\ndistinct possibility. On the other hand, if the Labour party picks up more\nseats it may serve as indication that the electorate has concerns about Brexit,\nwhich would give way to \u201csoft Brexit\u201d \u2013 or the insistence on leaving the EU\nwith a deal and roadmap in place. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Factor #3: Holiday Retail Sales Activity<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Consumer spending is a key driver of growth in the US\neconomy. It follows that 2019 is shaping up to be the most critical holiday\nshopping season of this 10+ year economic expansion. Will the U.S. consumer\ncontinue spending at a healthy clip, or will we see a front-and-center\nindication that the consumer is running out of steam? The numbers in December\nwill matter. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Early indications of consumer health are positive. Consumer confidence\nis rebounding ahead of holiday shopping season, and retail sales are coming off\na +0.3% month-over-month uptick. Data also indicates that shoppers are expected\nto increase spending by 5% over last year\u2019s figures, with over 50% of all\nholiday shopping expected to take place online.4 <\/sup>The job market is a\nkey driver of consumer spending, and continues to hold its own with steady job\ngrowth. Companies of all sizes, however, are starting to reveal concern over\nlack of qualified workers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Factor #4: Will Leading Economic Indicators Continue\nTurning Over?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The Conference Board\u2019s Leading Economic Indicator Index\n(LEI) has been a reliable predictor of recessions over the last few decades, as\nyou can see from the image below. Historically, as the LEI (blue line on chart)\npeaks and starts to turn over, a recession has followed shortly thereafter:<\/p>\n\n\n\n The LEI Index has\nTurned Over Before Each of the Previous Two Recessions<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Source: Conference Board LEI5<\/sup><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The Conference Board\u2019s LEI for the\nUnited States declined for a third consecutive month in November, with its\nsix-month growth rate turning negative for the first time in over three years.\nAccording to the Conference Board, weakness was driven by weak new orders in\nmanufacturing, falling average weekly hours for workers, and rising unemployment\ninsurance claims. In short, a softening in the labor market that may be tied to\nthe lack of qualified workers detailed in Factor #3. In all, the LEI suggests\nthe U.S. economy may end on a weak note, making it a key factor to look for in\nDecember, in our view. <\/p>\n\n\n\n As we wait to see how these stories pan out by\nyear-end, I recommend focusing on your long-term financial goals. To help you\ndo this we are offering our just-released free guide, 7 Secrets to\nBuilding the Ultimate DIY Retirement Portfolio<\/em>.6<\/sup> It\nprovides a step-by-step blueprint of our customized investing process to\npotentially help you build a sound retirement portfolio of your own and pursue\nlong-term investing success. How will 2019 market finish? Look at trade, UK voters, holiday spending, and LEI index<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":7426,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8362","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8362","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8362"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8362\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10673,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8362\/revisions\/10673"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8362"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8362"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8362"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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Navigating market cycles while creating a retirement portfolio that meets your financial goals is no small feat. To build a portfolio that can potentially reach your goals, you must put some time and effort into defining your investing objectives, determining your asset allocation, and managing your investments over time.
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If you have $500,000 or more to invest, I recommend downloading our guide\u00a07 Secrets to Building the Ultimate DIY Retirement Portfolio.<\/em>\u00a0It provides a step-by-step blueprint of our customized investing process to potentially help you build a sound retirement portfolio of your own and pursue long-term investing success.
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Download Your Copy of\u00a07 Secrets to Building the Ultimate DIY Retirement Portfolio.<\/a>2<\/a><\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/image-1024x624.png\")
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\nIf you have $500,000 or more to invest, get this\nguide to learn our ideas on the step-by-step process to building and\nmaintaining a retirement portfolio that will help you reach your goals and\nenjoy a secure retirement.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"