In today\u2019s Steady\nInvestor, we look at what is going on in the markets and key takeaways and\nquestions for investors to consider, such as:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Stable Economies May\nProlong Trade War \u2013 <\/strong>Both the U.S. and China appear to be eager to end the\ntrade dispute and arrive at a deal suitable for both countries. But the\nquestion complicating matters today is, does\neither country actually need the trade war to end? <\/em>The U.S. economy is\npoised to grow in the 2% to 2.5% range in 2020, according to Zacks estimates,\nand the U.S. consumer has proven resilient in the face of tariffs and political\nuncertainty (see story below). Meanwhile, in China, recent economic data points\nto an upswing in some key growth areas, particularly the Caixan China\nPurchasing Managers Index for Services which rose to a seven-month high in\nNovember. China has also pledged additional stimulus measures with the full\nmuscle of fiscal and monetary levers if need be,1<\/sup> which leads us to\nbelieve they may be more willing to \u2018wait it out\u2019 versus \u2018giving in.\u2019 President\nTrump announced this week that he was willing to wait until after the 2020\nelection to strike a deal, which would mean another twelve months of tariffs\nand stunted business investment. As long as neither economy appears at imminent\nrisk of recession, we may not reasonably expect this trade war to end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n _____________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n What is the Biggest Hurdle for Global Equity Markets?<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Looking beyond the U.S. and China\u2019s dispute, the global\neconomy appears to be slowing. It follows that the biggest hurdle for global\nequity markets is whether or not non-U.S. economies can stage a growth comeback\nin 2020, even if just a small one. <\/p>\n\n\n\n In our just-released Market Strategy report, we take a\ncloser look at what\u2019s at stake on the global stage. Many factors are hanging in\nthe balance. Among them, a few possible \u2018bull market catalysts\u2019 that investors\nwill want to watch for.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want\nto learn more, click on the link below to get your free report today!<\/p>\n\n\n\n Download Our Just-Released December Market Strategy Report<\/a>2<\/a><\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n _____________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n Oil\nPrices Settle Into \u201cSweet Spot\u201d \u2013 <\/strong>Throughout the second\nhalf of 2019, oil prices have managed to hover within a trading band of $50 to\n$60 a barrel, which under current economic conditions is arguably a \u2018sweet\nspot\u2019 for both consumers and producers. Consumers benefit from recognizable and\nrelatively modest cost of gas and heating, and producers can still profitably\ndrill and refine. OPEC and a 10-nation coalition led by Russia met this week to\nhash out potential supply curbs heading into 2020, which may add to near-term\nstickiness of crude oil prices. Saudi Arabia has particular interest in seeing\ncrude oil prices rise in the near term, as price increases would support the planned\nIPO for the state-owned oil giant, Saudi Aramco.3<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n The\nRobust U.S. Consumer \u2013 <\/strong>The economic and stock market growth\nnarrative has largely centered on the US consumer recently. Since US\nmanufacturing is in decline, corporate earnings are negative (quarter over\nquarter), and business investment is soft, the US consumer has been the glue\nholding the expansion and bull market together. It follows that all eyes were\non early retail spending reports from the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, with\nBlack Friday and Cyber Monday the biggest shopping days of the year. Market\nwatchers were not disappointed: American shoppers increased weekend spending by\n16% from last year, with Cyber Monday\u2019s jump clocking a staggering 20% increase\nfrom 2018. The National Retail Federation reports that 190 million shoppers bought\ngoods and services over the weekend, which also marked a double-digit gain of\n14% over last year. Any doubts that the US consumer was running out of steam\nshould arguably be put to rest for the time being.4<\/sup> <\/p>\n\n\n\n More\nTariffs, Again? <\/strong>Fresh tariffs were announced \u2013 but not\nimplemented \u2013 this week, as President Trump shifted focus from China to France\nand South America. In France, the Trump Administration is responding to a new\n\u2018digital-services tax,\u2019 which targets mainly U.S. tech companies like Google\nand Facebook. Proposed tariffs amount to 100% on approximately $2.4 billion of\nFrench imports, from champagne to cheese to handbags. Meanwhile, in South\nAmerica, the Trump Administration is proposing new tariffs on steel and\naluminum from Brazil and Argentina, after accusing the countries of devaluing\ncurrencies \u2013 thus hurting American farmers.5<\/sup> <\/p>\n\n\n\n The Biggest Hurdle for Global Equity\nMarkets – <\/strong>The global economy outside of the U.S.\nis clearly slowing. In our view, the biggest hurdle for global equity markets\nis whether or not non-U.S. economies can stage a growth comeback in 2020, even\nif just a small one. Policy prescriptions at major central banks may provide\nsome support, but cyclical forces need to come into play as well for growth to\nbe sustainable. <\/p>\n\n\n\n To learn more about this story, check\nout our just-released Market Strategy report.6<\/sup> We take a closer look\nat what\u2019s at stake on the global stage. Many factors are hanging in the\nbalance. Among them, a few possible \u2018bull market catalysts\u2019 that investors will\nwant to watch for.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want\nto learn more, click on the link below to get your free report today!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Oil prices in \u201csweet spot\u201d, more new tariffs proposed, American shoppers spending big this year<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":7426,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[73],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8370","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-steady-investors-week"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8370","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8370"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8370\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10670,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8370\/revisions\/10670"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8370"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8370"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8370"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}