{"id":8397,"date":"2019-12-23T19:29:22","date_gmt":"2019-12-23T19:29:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zackspcg.com\/blog\/?p=8397"},"modified":"2022-02-26T13:06:51","modified_gmt":"2022-02-26T13:06:51","slug":"china-trade-terms-brexits-impact-global-economy-steady","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/china-trade-terms-brexits-impact-global-economy-steady\/","title":{"rendered":"China Trade Terms, Brexit\u2019s Impact, Global Economy Steady"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>In today\u2019s Steady Investor, we look at what is going on in\nthe markets and our key takeaways and questions for investors to consider, such\nas:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Is the U.S. and China trade agreement realistic?<\/li><li>What retirement mistakes should you try and\navoid in 2020?<\/li><li>The Brexit is official. Could this lead to a\nrecession for the UK next year?<\/li><li>The global economy finishes the year on firm footing<\/li><li>What implications could come from Boeing\u2019s\nhalting production of the 737 MAX?<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Are Terms of the U.S.\n\u2013 China Trade Agreement Realistic? <\/strong>The U.S. and China have agreed in\nprinciple to terms of a trade agreement, but part of the agreement appears \u2013 on\nthe surface \u2013 to be wildly farfetched. According to U.S. negotiators, China has\ncommitted to agricultural purchases to the tune of at least $40 billion for the\nnext two years, an exorbitant amount by historical standards. Indeed, $40-$50\nbillion seems far too high relative to China\u2019s agricultural needs and previous\nyears\u2019 purchases. In fact, $40 billion of agricultural purchases would amount\nto almost double the record for what China has purchased from American farmers\nin previous years. China has growing demand for soybeans and pork, but the\nquestion is whether they will actually meet targets, or if this is yet another\ncase of over-promising and under-delivering.<sup>1<\/sup> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>_________________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-9-retirement-mistakes?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=steadyinvestor_zim_2019_12_21&amp;content=9_retirement_mistakes_guide\">9 of the Biggest Financial Mistakes You Should Avoid in 2020!<\/a><\/strong><br> \u00a0<br> Looking toward the final days of 2019 and the New Year ahead, many investors may be wondering what to do and how to prepare for what\u2019s to come in 2020.<br> \u00a0<br> See what we believe are the biggest mistakes investors make when planning for their financial future and how to avoid them with our guide, \u201c9 Retirement Mistakes to Avoid.\u201d<br> \u00a0<br> If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn more, click on the link below:<br> \u00a0<br><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-9-retirement-mistakes?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=steadyinvestor_zim_2019_12_21&amp;content=9_retirement_mistakes_guide\"> <\/a><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-9-retirement-mistakes?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=steadyinvestor_zim_2019_12_21&amp;content=9_retirement_mistakes_guide\">Learn About the 9 Retirement Mistakes to Avoid!<\/a><sup><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-9-retirement-mistakes?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=steadyinvestor_zim_2019_12_21&amp;content=9_retirement_mistakes_guide\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>_________________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Brexit Becomes\nOfficial \u2013 <\/strong>The U.K. election was nothing short of historic, with the\nConservatives (Tories) winning a remarkable 80-seat majority. This victory for\nthe Tories all but solidifies the Brexit mandate, with Britain nearly certain\nto leave the European Union on January 31. Perhaps the biggest benefit to this\nvote is not the political outcome, but rather the removal of uncertainty about\nthe fate of Brexit. A second potential benefit is that there seem to be\nwidespread predictions that the U.K. economy is due to suffer badly as a result\nof this breakup, with some forecasting recession in the coming year. In our view,\nthis narrative actually works in the equity market\u2019s favor, as baseline\nassumptions of worst-case scenarios often leave wide open the possibility of a\npositive surprise. If the economic outcome is anything better than recession\n(even no growth), it could result in a positive response for the markets. On\nthe negative side, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson signaled he would not\nextend the Brexit transition any further past the end of 2020, which increases\nthe risk that Britain could end up formally leaving the customs union and free\ntrade bloc with no deal in place with the EU.<sup>3<\/sup> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Global Economy\nFinishing the Year on Firm Footing \u2013 <\/strong>A handful of positive economic data\nhit the tape this week, and most all signs point to solid footing for the U.S.\nand global economy. U.S. business activity rose to a five-month high in\nDecember, U.S. purchasing managers struck a positive note about economic\nactivity entering the new year, and consumer spending picked up in November.\nChina also reassured markets this week with industrial output and retail sales\nfigures that showed a pickup in growth, not to mention the limited trade deal\nthat appears to be in the works between it and the U.S. Global growth, on\nbalance, is expected to notch a 3% rate in 2020 \u2013 slowing but still nicely\npositive.<sup>4<\/sup> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Outsized,\nLittle-Known Impact of Boeing\u2019s Problems \u2013 <\/strong>Most readers are likely familiar\nwith Boeing\u2019s recent woes as they relate to the 737 MAX plane. Two crashes last\nyear led to a grounding of the planes, which led to ongoing investigations, which\nhave now led the company to temporarily halt production of the plane.\nTypically, we do not write about individual companies or stocks in this column,\nas we would rather focus on the macroeconomic news that shapes the economic\noutlook and global markets. But that\u2019s just the thing \u2013 Boeing\u2019s halting\nproduction of the 737 MAX could have real implications to U.S. and global GDP. Aircraft\nproduction and aerospace is an important part of the U.S. economy, and halting\nproduction could lead to job cuts, furloughs, and a hit to the U.S.\u2019s trade\ndeficit if enough planes aren\u2019t delivered. By some estimates, Boeing\u2019s actions\ncould cut 0.5% from U.S. GDP in Q1 2020.<sup>5<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We can\u2019t predict or control what is in store for\nthe market or what is to come in 2020, but investors can stay focused on making\nsure their own actions help guide their investments to succeed. One way to do\nthis is not to fall prey to common investing mistakes.<br>\n&nbsp;<br>\nThere are common mistakes and habits that we\nbelieve can help some investors succeed while others fail. To help you\nunderstand some of these mistakes and how to avoid them, we have created the\nguide, \u201c9 Retirement Mistakes to Avoid.\u201d<sup>6<\/sup><br>\n&nbsp;<br>\nIn this guide, we provide our thoughts on what\nwe believe are&nbsp;<strong>9 of the biggest retirement mistakes investors\nshould avoid<\/strong>. If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn\nmore, click on the link below:<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The effect of halting 737 MAX production, questions about U.S.-China trade deal, plus more <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":7426,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71,73],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8397","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-private-client-group","category-steady-investors-week"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8397","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8397"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8397\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10664,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8397\/revisions\/10664"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8397"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8397"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8397"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}