{"id":8505,"date":"2020-02-24T19:41:26","date_gmt":"2020-02-24T19:41:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zackspcg.com\/blog\/?p=8505"},"modified":"2022-02-26T13:06:44","modified_gmt":"2022-02-26T13:06:44","slug":"what-the-2019-earnings-recession-means-for-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/what-the-2019-earnings-recession-means-for-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"What the 2019 Earnings Recession Means for 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In 2019, total earnings (or aggregate net income) for\nS&amp;P 500 companies was expected to be down -1.5% on +3.1% higher revenues.<sup>1<\/sup>\nThe takeaway is simple: corporations made less profit in 2019 compared to 2018.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Even still, the S&amp;P 500 index<em> was up +31.49% over the same time frame<\/em>.<sup>2<\/sup> Many readers\nare probably noticing the flaw in the logic here: corporations do a little\nworse year-over-year, but the stock market surges. What\u2019s wrong with this\npicture?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Actually, there may not be anything wrong with this picture\nat all. Markets move on a variety of factors \u2013 interest rates, monetary policy\ndecisions, but perhaps most importantly, how <em>expectations match up against reality<\/em>. 2019\u2019s stellar year can be\nexplained by taking a closer look at these other factors, in my view. Here are\nour three takeaways.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">______________________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-stock-market-outlook?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_blog_2020_2_24&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\">Focus on Key Economic Indicators<\/a><\/strong><br> <br> Before I dive into these three takeaways, I want to emphasize the importance of avoiding the urge to get caught up in day-to-day movements, and instead focus on economic data releases, earnings reports, and other economic factors!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To help you do this, we are\noffering all readers a look into our just-released March 2020 Stock Market\nOutlook report.<br>\n<br>\nThis report will provide you with our forecasts along with additional factors\nto consider:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><em>What Produces 2020 Optimism?<\/em><\/li><li><em>What role does the \u201cU.S. China trade war\u201d play in 2020?<\/em><\/li><li><em>What sectors\u00a0show the best opportunity?<\/em><\/li><li><em>What industries within those sectors most merit your attention?<\/em><\/li><li><em>Forecast for the S&amp;P<\/em><\/li><li><em>Small-cap vs. large-cap returns<\/em><\/li><li><em>And much more.\u00a0<\/em><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you\nhave $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn more about these forecasts,\nclick on the link below to get your free report today!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-stock-market-outlook?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_blog_2020_2_24&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\">IT&#8217;S FREE. Download the Just-Released\u00a0March 2020\u00a0Stock Market Outlook<\/a><sup><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-stock-market-outlook?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_blog_2020_2_24&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">______________________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>1) Follow the Money<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I believe investors should not underestimate the influence\nthat \u201clower for longer\u201d interest rates can have on equity prices. With\ninvestors starved for yield and interest rates seemingly anchored to near-zero\nlevels, any indication of monetary policy easing generally results in a\n\u201crisk-on\u201d environment. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In 2019, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates three\ntimes (thereby reversing all of the 2018 rate hikes), <em>and <\/em>they engaged in quantitative easing-like actions by purchasing\n$60 billion in Treasuries per month and stepping in to fund overnight lending through\nthe repo market.&nbsp; Globally, the European\nCentral Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the People\u2019s Bank of China all implemented\naccommodative policies.<sup>4<\/sup> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With strong economic fundamentals in the backdrop, easy money is almost always a tailwind for stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>2)<\/strong> <strong>Zoom Out, and the S&amp;P 500 is Actually Tracking Earnings<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One of the main reasons that 2019 earnings looked so weak is\nthat 2018 earnings were so strong, as a result of the tax cut. That made for\nvery tough comparisons, and set a very high bar for corporations to reach. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But here\u2019s the kicker: when you zoom out and look at 2018 and\n2019 earnings together, you find that earnings grew 23.2% in 2018 while\ndeclining -1.5% in 2019. Over that two year stretch, the S&amp;P 500 rose\napproximately +24% \u2013 a nice balance between stock price appreciation and\ncorporate earnings growth. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The picture emerging from the Q4 2019 earnings season \u2013 which\nalso marked a strong rally for the S&amp;P 500 \u2013 is one of steady improvement,\nwith earnings growth on track to turn positive and an above-average proportion\nof companies beating top-line expectations. Estimates for Q1 2020 have come\ndown, but they still compare favorably to other recent periods despite the\ncoronavirus impact. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For Q4 2019 as a whole, total earnings for the S&amp;P 500 index are expected to be up +0.7% from the same period last year on +4.3% higher revenues.<sup>5<\/sup> <em>Better-than-expected earnings per share (EPS) performance is a good explainer for the market\u2019s rally. <\/em>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>3) Negative \u2018Shocks\u2019 That Aren\u2019t So Negative<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Many feared that the trade war with China would deliver\nsignificant blows to earnings and GDP, but the actual impact was arguably far\nsofter than many feared. Global trade declined -1% for 2019 \u2013 which is rare for\neconomic expansion years \u2013 but the US still managed to post modest but nicely\npositive GDP growth.<sup>6<\/sup> &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Wage gains outpaced inflation in the back half of\n2019, and unemployment remains near historic lows. As long as the consumer\nremains in a relatively strong position, the US economy stands to benefit \u2013 consumer\nspending accounts for about two-thirds (68.1%) of the entire economy.<sup>7<\/sup>\nThe year ended with few signs of the consumer losing steam, with measures of\nconsumer confidence remaining near cycle-highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Bottom Line for\nInvestors<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Earnings growth is expected to resume in 2020, with S&amp;P\n500 corporations projected to post +7.5% aggregate net income growth on +4.7%\nhigher revenues. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/motm_220-1024x862.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8506\"\/><figcaption> <br><strong> <em>Source: Zacks.com<sup>8\ufeff<\/sup><\/em><\/strong> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u00a0<\/strong>The coronavirus may ding Q1 and Q2 earnings growth for China \u2013 and therefore the world \u2013 but the economic responses to virus-linked slowdowns have tended to be robust in history. We\u2019d expect a strong bounce off the weakness, and I think investors should position for better-than-expected EPS performance throughout the year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To help you get a deeper look into key economic indicators, earnings reports and other key factors that could influence the market, I am offering all readers our\u00a0<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-stock-market-outlook?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=motm_blog_2020_2_24&amp;content=stock_market_outlook_report\">Just-Released March 2020 Stock Market Outlook Report.\u00a0<\/a><\/strong><br> \u00a0<br> This Special Report is packed with newly revised predictions that can help you base your next investment move on hard data. For example, you&#8217;ll discover Zacks\u2019 view on:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><em>What Produces 2020 Optimism?<\/em><\/li><li><em>What role does the \u201cU.S. China trade war\u201d play in 2020?<\/em><\/li><li><em>What sectors\u00a0show the best opportunity?<\/em><\/li><li><em>What industries within those sectors most merit your attention?<\/em><\/li><li><em>Forecast for the S&amp;P<\/em><\/li><li><em>Small-cap vs. large-cap returns<\/em><\/li><li><em>And much more.\u00a0<\/em><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn more about these forecasts, click on the link below to get your free report today!<sup>9<\/sup><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>3 takeaways that point to earnings growth this year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":7430,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8505","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - 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