{"id":8870,"date":"2020-09-21T16:32:20","date_gmt":"2020-09-21T16:32:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zackspcg.com\/blog\/?p=8870"},"modified":"2022-02-26T13:06:30","modified_gmt":"2022-02-26T13:06:30","slug":"fed-signals-lower-longer-rates-k-shaped-recovery-fastest-bear-ever","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/fed-signals-lower-longer-rates-k-shaped-recovery-fastest-bear-ever\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed Signals Lower Longer Rates, \u201cK-shaped\u201d Recovery, Fastest Bear Ever"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>In today\u2019s Steady\nInvestor, we look at the current state of the market, what could be next, and\nkey factors that we believe are currently impacting the market such as:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Fed makes\nrare policy statement<\/li><li>What\nbusinesses flourish while others flounder?<\/li><li>A look\ninto the fastest bear market in history<\/li><li>China\u2019s\nroad to rapid economic recovery<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Fed Makes Rare Policy Statement, Signaling Lower for Longer Rates \u2013 <\/strong>In late August, the Federal Reserve was the economic talk-of-the-town when they announced a \u201cflexible form of average inflation targeting,\u201d which essentially meant they were comfortable allowing inflation to drift above 2% for \u201csome time.\u201d The \u2018read between the lines\u2019 message was that the Fed was willing to leave rates low for a longer stretch of time, and possibly commit to more asset purchases in the near to medium term. This week, the Federal Reserve doubled down on the accommodative messaging by releasing projections showing interest rates near zero for at least three years. All 17 Fed officials said they believed rates would stay near zero at least through the end of 2021, and 13 officials predicted rates would anchor to the zero bound through 2023. Speaking of low interest rates, global demand for U.S. Treasuries throughout the crisis has kept longer-term interest rates near historic lows, which has pushed the cost of borrowing down 10% over the last year.<sup>1<\/sup> Interestingly, the cost of servicing debt has become cheaper for the U.S. despite the sharp economic recession and heavy government borrowing. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>___________________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-9-retirement-mistakes?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=steadyinvestor_blog_2020_9_21&amp;content=9_retirement_mistakes_guide\">9 of the Biggest Financial Mistakes You Should Avoid During this Crisis!<\/a><\/strong><br> \u00a0<br> Looking at the current state of the economy and the unknowns surrounding the pandemic like if a market correction is in the near future, many investors may be wondering what to do and how to prepare for what\u2019s to come, especially when it comes to retirement planning.<br> \u00a0<br> While there are many unknowns at present, we believe there are nine common mistakes that many investors make when planning for retirement. In our guide,\u00a0<em>9 Retirement Mistakes to Avoid<\/em>, we outline these mistakes and how you can potentially avoid them.<br> \u00a0<br> If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn more, click on the link below to get your free copy:<br> \u00a0<br><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-9-retirement-mistakes?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=steadyinvestor_blog_2020_9_21&amp;content=9_retirement_mistakes_guide\">Learn About the 9 Retirement Mistakes to Avoid!<\/a><sup><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-9-retirement-mistakes?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=steadyinvestor_blog_2020_9_21&amp;content=9_retirement_mistakes_guide\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>___________________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Hiring and Firing \u2013 <\/strong>Some\neconomists have referred to the U.S. recovery as \u201cK-shaped,\u201d implying that\nwhile some businesses and professions flourish in the pandemic economy, others are\nincreasingly suffering. A prime example of this tale of haves and have-nots can\nbe seen in recent hiring trends in retail. Amazon announced this week that they\nplan to hire an additional 100,000 employees in the U.S. and Canada this year, which\ncontinues a rapid expansion of their workforce, particularly as people stay\nhome and order goods online. Meanwhile, the other side of the retail coin looks\nincreasingly bleak. U.S. airlines lost 50,000 jobs in the first six months of\nthe year, and traditional retailers like J.C. Penney, Neiman Marcus, and J.\nCrew have filed for bankruptcy.<sup>3<\/sup> A crisis almost always creates\nwinners and losers, but the Covid-19 pandemic\u2019s collision course with changing\nconsumer and business trends has accelerated the market\u2019s reshuffling. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Fastest Bear Market\nRecovery in History \u2013 <\/strong>Looking at all bear markets going back to 1928, U.S.\nequity markets took an average of about 1,500 trading sessions to recapture\nall-time highs, which marks about a six-year recovery from a downturn. In this\ncycle, it took the Dow and the S&amp;P 500 just 126 trading sessions to post a\nfull recovery, which is obviously just a fraction of the time and marks an\nastounding and unprecedented \u201cv-shaped\u201d bounce. Never before have the equity\nmarkets recovered this quickly from a bear. Behind the rally has been\nextraordinary fiscal and monetary stimulus (which also arrived in record time\nand came in record dollar figures), a \u201cworse than the Great Depression\u201d narrative\nthat never materialized, and of course, behemoth Tech companies with solid\nearnings throughout the crisis.<sup>4<\/sup> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>China on Course for\nRapid Economic Recovery \u2013 <\/strong>China\u2019s economy has been seeing strong gains in\nfactory production, investment, and property activity as the Covid-19 outbreak\nis fully under control, with no new cases reported in weeks. What\u2019s been\nmissing from the positive data, however, is retail sales. China\u2019s export\neconomy allowed it to focus on restarting factories and business to drive the first\nleg of its economic recovery, while keeping consumers largely at home and on\nlockdown to stem the spread of the virus. With no new cases reported in weeks,\nshopping malls, movie theaters, gyms, and restaurants are all brimming with\ncustomers. By one measure, the last 10 days of August showed revenues at movie\ntheaters at 90% of the same period last year. China\u2019s GDP expanded by 3.2% in\nQ2 from a year earlier.<sup>5<\/sup> As the second largest economy in the world,\nChina\u2019s recovery is meaningful to larger trends of global economic growth and\nmay provide needed support in the coming months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Retirement Mistakes to Avoid During this Unprecedented\nTime &#8211;<\/strong> There are common mistakes and habits that we believe can help\nsome investors succeed while others fail. So while we can\u2019t predict or control\nwhat is in store for the market, investors can stay focused on making sure\ntheir own actions help guide their investments to succeed and not to fall prey\nto common investing mistakes.<br>\n&nbsp;<br>\nTo help you understand some of these mistakes\nand how to avoid them, we have created the guide,&nbsp;<em>9 Retirement\nMistakes to Avoid<\/em>.<sup>6<\/sup><br>\n&nbsp;<br>\nIn this guide, we provide our thoughts on what\nwe believe are&nbsp;<strong>9 of the biggest retirement mistakes investors\nshould avoid<\/strong>. If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn\nmore, click on the link below:<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>China economy recovers rapidly, U.S. retail winners and losers, unprecedented \u201cv-shaped\u201d market bounce<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":7426,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71,73],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8870","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-private-client-group","category-steady-investors-week"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8870","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8870"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8870\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10541,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8870\/revisions\/10541"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8870"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8870"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8870"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}