{"id":8930,"date":"2020-10-19T15:43:13","date_gmt":"2020-10-19T15:43:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zackspcg.com\/blog\/?p=8930"},"modified":"2022-02-26T13:06:28","modified_gmt":"2022-02-26T13:06:28","slug":"q3-earnings-hint-at-recovery-holiday-shopping-changes-inflation-in-check","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/q3-earnings-hint-at-recovery-holiday-shopping-changes-inflation-in-check\/","title":{"rendered":"Q3 Earnings Hint at Recovery, Holiday Shopping Changes, Inflation in Check"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>In today\u2019s Steady\nInvestor, we look at key questions investors are asking, and factors that we\nbelieve are currently impacting the market such as:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Q3\nearnings signal that the economic recovery is taking hold<\/li><li>Retailers\nadapt holiday shopping <\/li><li>Global GDP growth\nin 2020 may be better-than-expected<\/li><li>Checking-in\non Inflation<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>A\nReasonably Good Start to Q3 Earnings Season \u2013 <\/strong>Q3\nearnings season kicked off this week, with banks leading the charge. Improved credit\nquality and continued capital markets momentum helped reporting banks deliver\nmuch improved results, at least relative to the first half of the year. For the 36 S&amp;P\n500 members that have reported Q3 results already, total earnings are down\n14.1% from the same period last year on 1% lower revenues, with 88.9% beating\nEPS estimates and 75% beating revenue estimates. This is a notably better\nperformance than what we saw from the same group of 36 companies in the first\nhalf of 2020, which is a good sign that the economic recovery is taking hold. For the Finance\nsector, we now have Q3 results from 29% of the sector\u2019s market capitalization\nin the S&amp;P 500 index. Total earnings for these Finance companies are down\n11% on 0.7% lower revenues, with 90% beating EPS estimates and 80% beating\nrevenue estimates.<sup>1<\/sup><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>______________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-use-volatility-to-your-advantage?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=steadyinvestor_blog_2020_10_19&amp;content=volatility_can_be_good_guide\">How to Use Market Volatility to Your Advantage<\/a><\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-use-volatility-to-your-advantage?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=steadyinvestor_blog_2020_10_19&amp;content=volatility_can_be_good_guide\"><br><\/a> &nbsp;<br>As we wait for a vaccine and for the market to fully recover, many investors will have to brace themselves for continued volatility. Market volatility is challenging for just about every investor, especially with all the unknowns that come with the current pandemic. But for all the worry and discomfort volatility often causes, did you know there are also several positive aspects of volatility?<br> &nbsp;<br> If you have $500,000 or more to invest, get our free guide, \u201cUsing Market Volatility to Your Advantage\u201d and learn our insights, based on decades of experience, about how a volatile market may be able to actually help investors refine their strategies and potentially generate solid returns over time.<br> &nbsp;<br> You\u2019ll get our ideas on:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>How market volatility can \u201cshake up\u201d complacent investors<\/li><li>Potential bargains that may be uncovered through turbulence<\/li><li>Why volatility may help prevent overheating and market \u201cbubbles\u201d<\/li><li>What history shows us about opportunities for steady investors in turbulent markets<\/li><li>Plus, more ways you may be able to benefit from a volatile market<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-use-volatility-to-your-advantage?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=steadyinvestor_blog_2020_10_19&amp;content=volatility_can_be_good_guide\">Download Our Guide, \u201cUsing Market Volatility to Your Advantage\u201d<\/a><sup><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/arrow-use-volatility-to-your-advantage?source=website&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=steadyinvestor_blog_2020_10_19&amp;content=volatility_can_be_good_guide\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>______________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Major Retailers Take\nAim at Amazon, Look to Extend Shopping Season \u2013 <\/strong>For all the eager holiday\nshoppers out there, you\u2019re probably aware that Amazon\u2019s Prime Day took place\nthis week. But the Black Friday-like shopping event was not just limited to\nAmazon. Major retailers like Target, Walmart, and even Best Buy launched their\nown sales events this week to compete with Amazon\u2019s, but also in an effort to\nspread-out the holiday shopping season for as long as possible. There is not\nreally a scenario where stores can be crowded this November, and so retailers\nare trying to accomplish two things with an extended holiday shopping season:\nease the strain on e-commerce supply chains, and lock-in sales knowing that\nNovember is going to be an economically, politically, and even socially\nuncertain time. Walmart and Target already announced that stores will be closed\non Thanksgiving, and the fact that customers will not be able to visit stores\nen masse already places a damper on retail sales in Q4.<sup>3<\/sup> As consumer\nspending makes up a large percentage of the total U.S. economy, the holiday\nshopping season will be closely watched. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Global\nGDP Growth in 2020 May Be Better-Than-Expected \u2013 <\/strong>In\nour view, the tendency to <em>over-estimate<\/em>\nthe depth of the recession was one of the reasons the stock market has been so\nresilient in 2020. In the case of global GDP growth, the International Monetary\nFund estimated in June that the global economy would decline by -5.2% in 2020.\nWith more information and a little more time, however, the estimate continues\nto improve. The IMF is now saying the world\u2019s GDP should decline by -4.4% this\nyear, thanks to massive fiscal and monetary stimulus. Governments around the\nworld have committed $11.7 trillion or 12% of total global output to the\nrecovery, much of which has yet to work its way through the capital markets, in\nour view. The IMF\u2019s improved forecast also comes as China has seen a swift\nrecovery, and is expected to notch full-year growth for 2020.<sup>4<\/sup>\nHarder hit economies, like Europe and Latin America, are going to take longer\nto reach pre-pandemic levels. And the United States may get there faster than\nmany currently believe. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Checking-In\non Inflation \u2013 <\/strong>Consumer prices in the United States rose\nin September for the fourth straight month, though overall gains in inflation\nremain low. Interestingly, used car purchases posted their biggest monthly\nincrease since 1969, as Americans ditched air travel in favor of road trips and\nremote work from new or temporary homes. Prices elsewhere have ticked only\nslightly higher as supply and demand dynamics remain fuzzy during the pandemic.\nIn related news, the Social Security Administration announced this week that\nseniors receiving the monthly benefit can expect a 1.3% increase next year, for\nthe 2021 cost-of-living adjustment. For many, this would translate to about a\n$20 increase to the monthly benefit.<sup>5 <\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Finding\nSilver Linings amid the Pandemic<\/strong> &#8211; It may be hard to find the silver linings in the midst of\nthe current crisis, but that doesn\u2019t mean they aren\u2019t there. To help give you\nadditional insight into how you can make the most of turbulent times, I\nrecommend reading our guide \u201cUsing Market Volatility to Your Advantage.\u201d<sup>6<\/sup>&nbsp;This\nguide can help you learn about our insights, based on decades of experience,\nabout how a volatile market may be able to actually help investors refine their\nstrategies and potentially generate solid returns over time.<br>\n&nbsp;<br>\nYou\u2019ll get our ideas on:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>How market volatility can \u201cshake up\u201d complacent      investors<\/li><li>Potential bargains that may be uncovered through      turbulence<\/li><li>Why volatility may help prevent overheating and market \u201cbubbles\u201d<\/li><li>What history shows us about opportunities for steady investors in turbulent markets<\/li><li>Plus, more ways you may be able to benefit from a volatile market<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>If you have $500,000 or\nmore to invest, download this free guide today by clicking on the link below.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2020 GDP growth may top expectations, retailers start holidays early, most companies beat earnings estimates<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":7426,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71,73],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8930","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-private-client-group","category-steady-investors-week"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8930","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8930"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8930\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10526,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8930\/revisions\/10526"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8930"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8930"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8930"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}