{"id":9107,"date":"2020-12-07T16:17:50","date_gmt":"2020-12-07T16:17:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zackspcg.com\/blog\/?p=9107"},"modified":"2022-02-26T13:06:00","modified_gmt":"2022-02-26T13:06:00","slug":"year-end-consumer-spending-slows-states-face-budget-shortfalls-china-booming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/year-end-consumer-spending-slows-states-face-budget-shortfalls-china-booming\/","title":{"rendered":"Year-End Consumer Spending Slows, States Face Budget Shortfalls, China Booming"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>In today\u2019s Steady\nInvestor, we take a look at key factors that we believe are currently impacting\nthe market, such as:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Consumer spending softening as the year ends<\/li><li>January 1<sup>st<\/sup> marks new frontier for\nthe U.K<\/li><li>Unfortunate storm for states and local\ngovernments<\/li><li>China\u2019s booming economy<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Better than Expected?\n\u2013 <\/strong>Surging Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths have led to softer\nQ4 GDP growth forecasts. But early fourth quarter economic data is holding up\nquite well, at least for now. The Institute for Supply Management\u2019s (ISM)\nNovember survey showed construction spending rise to its second-highest level\non record, and other readings regarding durable goods orders, home sales, and\nconsumer spending showed resilience in October. The Atlanta Federal Reserve\u2019s\nmodel for predicting GDP, called GDPNow, is predicting an 11.1% annualized\ngrowth rate for Q4, which is a strong improvement from the 2.2% rate predicted\njust a month ago. If these figures hold up or remain close, it would mark a\nmuch better-than-expected growth outcome than consensus estimates basically\nthroughout 2020. To be fair, GDP growth is not back to pre-pandemic levels, and\nareas of the economy like factory employment, hospitality, and personal incomes\nare struggling. There are also some signs that consumer spending is softening:\ndata shows that U.S. consumers spent an average of just below $312 on holiday-related\npurchases from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, which is down 14% from spending in\n2019. The number of in-store shoppers plummeted 37% from a year earlier on\nBlack Friday, though online shoppers rose 8% on the same day.<sup>1<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>______________________________________________________________________________________________<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/download-ultimate-retirement-portfolio?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=steadyinvestor_zim_2020_12_07&amp;content=ultimate_retirement_portfolio\">Keeping Focus on Your Long-Term Investment Goals!<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are current changes happening within the market that\nno investor can predict. As we approach the beginning of 2021, inflation concerns\nand future pandemic uncertainties rise. These challenges are difficult for\nevery investor, but particularly for those trying to build their retirement\nportfolio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We still believe it is possible to avoid the damage of\neconomic downturns and achieve your retirement goals. However, achieving these\ngoals involves some work: Defining your investing objectives, determining your\nasset allocation, managing investments over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To help you do this, we are offering readers our free guide\nthat offers a step-by-step blueprint of our customized investing process to\npotentially help you build a sound retirement portfolio of your own.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you have $500,000 or more to invest, get this guide to\nlearn our ideas on building and maintaining a retirement portfolio to\npotentially achieve your long-term goals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Get our FREE guide:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/download-ultimate-retirement-portfolio?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=steadyinvestor_zim_2020_12_07&amp;content=ultimate_retirement_portfolio\">7 Secrets to Building the Ultimate DIY Retirement Portfolio<\/a><sup><a href=\"https:\/\/go.steadyinvestor.com\/download-ultimate-retirement-portfolio?source=zim&amp;medium=blog&amp;term=steadyinvestor_zim_2020_12_07&amp;content=ultimate_retirement_portfolio\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>______________________________________________________________________________________________<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>January 1<sup>st<\/sup>\nMarks New Frontier for the U.K. \u2013 <\/strong>For nearly 50 years, goods have moved with\nease from Europe to British ports, crossing the English Channel. On January 1,\nthat free movement is due to end. With Brexit\u2019s implications finally coming\ninto view, the U.K. faces logistical challenges the country has arguably never\nexperienced before. About 10,000 trucks cross the English Channel on ferries\nevery day, moving goods between the French port of Calais and the Port of Dover\non the British side. Some officials estimate that for every 2-minute delay a\ntruck faces at the border crossing, it will spur a 17-mile traffic jam on the\nM20 highway in Britain.<sup>3<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>States and Local\nGovernment Budgets Flashing Red \u2013 <\/strong>States and local governments have felt\nthe sting of the Covid-19 recession. In 2020, budget shortfalls are estimated\nto be between $70 billion and $74 billion, with that number potentially rising\nto over $200 billion in 2021. The onslaught of spending on unemployment\nbenefits, loss of tax revenues from business restrictions, and spending needed\nto combat the spread of Covid-19 have been a perfect storm for states. When\nstates suffer, the broad economy can feel it too \u2013 public-sector spending\naccounts for 8.5% of the U.S. economy, and 13.1% of all jobs.<sup>4<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>China Boom \u2013 <\/strong>While\nmuch of the world struggles to return to pre-pandemic levels of economic\nactivity, China is showing signs of gaining momentum and strengthening its\neconomy even further. Services and manufacturing indexes in China continue to\npost expansionary readings, with China\u2019s manufacturing activity registering its\nhighest level in a decade. China\u2019s non-manufacturing PMI, which has generally\nbeen a lesser point of emphasis for China\u2019s economy, currently sits at its\nhighest level since June 2012.<sup>5<\/sup> With the virus fully under control\nthere, the economic resurgence that started in factories and construction has\nspread to services and consumption. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>During this time of change and uncertainty in the\neconomy, there are things you can do to protect your investments and create a\nretirement portfolio that meets your financial goals. To help you do this, I\nrecommend reading our guide,&nbsp;<em>7\nSecrets to Building the Ultimate DIY Retirement Portfolio<\/em>.<sup>6<\/sup>&nbsp;It\nprovides a step-by-step blueprint of our customized investing process to\npotentially help you build a sound retirement portfolio of your own and pursue\nlong-term investing success.<br>\n&nbsp;<br>\nIf you have $500,000 or more to invest, get this\nguide to learn our ideas on the step-by-step process to building and\nmaintaining a retirement portfolio that will potentially help you reach your\ngoals and enjoy a secure retirement.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Q4 economic data better than expected, state and local budgets face perfect storm, new frontier for U.K. in 2021<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":7426,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71,73],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9107","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-private-client-group","category-steady-investors-week"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9107","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9107"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9107\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10496,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9107\/revisions\/10496"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9107"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9107"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zacksim.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9107"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}