Tony A. from Sacramento, CA asks: Hi Mitch, with the tariff “deadline” approaching, I’m curious if you think we’re heading for another bout of uncertainty. Some tariffs are on, some are off, some deadlines get extended, some don’t, and on and on in the whirlwind. It all feels a bit chaotic and I’m curious if you think the markets will reflect that in the coming weeks. Thanks for your time.
Mitch’s Response:
Your question is a good one, and timely. Unfortunately, there’s no definitive answer. We can’t know if tariff deadlines will get extended, or if tariffs will be implemented in punitive ways in the short term. If anything, the only thing we know is that the Trump administration continues to follow their playbook on trade, which signals to me that markets know what to expect, even as uncertainty continues. I realize that’s a bit of a bizarre concept, but the bottom line is that if markets have seen something before, it’s easier to price in quickly.1
To be fair, in most economic cycles, policy uncertainty acts as a headwind on investment. It weighs on confidence, it delays capital spending, and it can often result in risk aversion. In 2025, however, markets are treating uncertainty a bit differently given what is known about the Trump administration’s tactics, and also given the existence of fiscal stimulus with the recently passed One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
Tariff Turbulence: Can Markets Stay Resilient?
With tariff deadlines shifting and trade headlines driving the news cycle, many investors are asking: Will markets stay resilient, or is renewed volatility around the corner?
In our free guide, How Geopolitical Crises Affect the Stock Market2, we break down how shifting trade policies, military conflicts, and other global tensions have historically moved markets, and what that means for your investments today. Inside, you’ll discover:
- Five significant conflicts since World War II, from Korea to Crimea
- An analysis of each conflict and its economic impacts
- U.S. GDP and S&P 500 figures for key periods of these wars
- Plus, more insights on how these crises affect the economy and market
If you have $500,000 or more to invest, request this report today!
Download Your Free Guide, How Geopolitical Crises Affect the Stock Market 2
Companies have also been adapting, with many front-loading imports to get ahead of higher tariff rates. That helped soften immediate cost pressures, which translated to cooler-than-expected inflation data in April and May. Markets responded in kind to the better-than-expected outcomes.
Corporate investment also hasn’t slowed meaningfully yet, though it’s fair to say that there are signs of hesitation starting to show. Purchasing managers surveyed in recent months have flagged reduced capital spending plans and more frequent operational pauses, often citing unpredictable tariff policy as the key reason. These shifts don’t show up in headline economic numbers immediately, but they can accumulate over time and act as a drag if prolonged.
Looking ahead, the key test will be the expiration of the current tariff pause, as you mentioned in your question. The Trump administration has floated the idea of sending formal notification letters to dozens of countries, warning them of new tariff schedules unless they reach an agreement with the U.S. by an early July deadline. While only a few preliminary deals have been announced so far, many investors believe the administration will ultimately moderate its approach rather than reignite a full-scale trade war.
For now, we still see strong earnings, solid economic growth, and targeted fiscal stimulus supporting the fundamentals. Whether that lasts depends on when clarity on trade arrives. History suggests we shouldn’t latch onto worst-case scenarios. I don’t think markets will, either.
Trade headlines shift daily, but uncertainty lingers. Knowing how markets have weathered past disruptions can help you navigate what’s ahead.
I encourage all readers to download our free guide, How Geopolitical Crises Affect the Stock Market 3, for a data-driven look at how events like trade wars and military escalations have shaped market returns—and what it could mean for your portfolio today.
Inside, you’ll discover:
- Five significant conflicts since World War II, from Korea to Crimea
- An analysis of each conflict and its economic impacts
- U.S. GDP and S&P 500 figures for key periods of these wars
- Plus, more insights on how these crises affect the economy and market
If you have $500,000 or more to invest, request this report today!
Disclosure
1 Wall Street Journal. July 7, 2025. https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trump-faces-crucial-week-for-reaching-trade-deals-2d6106f8?mod=economy_lead_pos1
2 Zacks Investment Management reserves the right to amend the terms or rescind the free How Geopolitical Crises Affect the Stock Market offer at any time and for any reason at its discretion.
3 Zacks Investment Management reserves the right to amend the terms or rescind the free How Geopolitical Crises Affect the Stock Market offer at any time and for any reason at its discretion.
DISCLOSURE
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss.
Zacks Investment Management, Inc. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Zacks Investment Research. Zacks Investment Management is an independent Registered Investment Advisory firm and acts as an investment manager for individuals and institutions. Zacks Investment Research is a provider of earnings data and other financial data to institutions and to individuals.
This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. Do not act or rely upon the information and advice given in this publication without seeking the services of competent and professional legal, tax, or accounting counsel. Publication and distribution of this article is not intended to create, and the information contained herein does not constitute, an attorney-client relationship. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment or strategy is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole.
Any projections, targets, or estimates in this report are forward looking statements and are based on the firm’s research, analysis, and assumptions. Due to rapidly changing market conditions and the complexity of investment decisions, supplemental information and other sources may be required to make informed investment decisions based on your individual investment objectives and suitability specifications. All expressions of opinions are subject to change without notice. Clients should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any security or investment strategy discussed in this presentation.
Certain economic and market information contained herein has been obtained from published sources prepared by other parties. Zacks Investment Management does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information. Further, no third party has assumed responsibility for independently verifying the information contained herein and accordingly no such persons make any representations with respect to the accuracy,
completeness or reasonableness of the information provided herein. Unless otherwise indicated, market analysis and conclusions are based upon opinions or assumptions that Zacks Investment Management considers to be reasonable. Any investment inherently involves a high degree of risk, beyond any specific risks discussed herein.
It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Investors pursuing a strategy similar to an index may experience higher or lower returns, which will be reduced by fees and expenses.
The S&P 500 Index is a well-known, unmanaged index of the prices of 500 large-company common stocks, mainly blue-chip stocks, selected by Standard & Poor’s. The S&P 500 Index assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect advisory fees. The volatility of the benchmark may be materially different from the individual performance obtained by a specific investor. An investor cannot invest directly in an index.
The Russell 1000 Growth Index is a well-known, unmanaged index of the prices of 1000 large-company growth common stocks selected by Russell. The Russell 1000 Growth Index assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect advisory fees. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. The volatility of the benchmark may be materially different from the individual performance obtained by a specific investor.
Nasdaq Composite Index is the market capitalization-weighted index of over 3,300 common equities listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. The types of securities in the index include American depositary receipts, common stocks, real estate investment trusts (REITs) and tracking stocks, as well as limited partnership interests. The index includes all Nasdaq-listed stocks that are not derivatives, preferred shares, funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or debenture securities. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. The volatility of the benchmark may be materially different from the individual performance obtained by a specific investor.
“The Dow Jones Industrial Average measures the daily stock market movements of 30 U.S. publicly-traded companies listed on the NASDAQ or the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The 30 publicly-owned companies are considered leaders in the United States economy. An investor cannot directly invest in an index. The volatility of the benchmark may be materially different from the individual performance obtained by a specific investor.”
Returns for each strategy and the corresponding Morningstar Universe reflect the annualized returns for the periods indicated. The Morningstar Universes used for comparative analysis are constructed by Morningstar (median performance) and data is provided to Zacks by Zephyr Style Advisor. The percentile ranking for each Zacks Strategy is based on the gross comparison for Zacks Strategies vs. the indicated universe rounded up to the nearest whole percentile. Other managers included in universe by Morningstar may exhibit style drift when compared to Zacks Investment Management portfolio. Neither Zacks Investment Management nor Zacks Investment Research has any affiliation with Morningstar. Neither Zacks Investment Management nor Zacks Investment Research had any influence of the process Morningstar used to determine this ranking.
The Russell 1000 Value Index is a well-known, unmanaged index of the prices of 1000 large-company value common stocks selected by Russell. The Russell 1000 Value Index assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect advisory fees. An investor cannot directly invest in an index. The volatility of the benchmark may be materially different from the individual performance obtained by a specific investor.
Questions posed are for demonstrative and informational purposes only and may not reflect the views of current clients or any one individual.