Zacks Investment Management

Markets are shifting again. This issue of Steady Investor highlights the three themes investors should watch now.

• Soft holiday spending ahead
• Tariff costs rising but contained
• Services driving global resilience

Signs are Pointing to a Weaker Holiday Shopping Season – It’s too early to get a read on retail sales data for the Thanksgiving shopping weekend, but a few signs point to spending softness we might expect to see in the final weeks of the year. Seasonal hiring looks thin while interest in seasonal work is up, an unusual pairing that points to tighter wallets and jobs market weakness. Several big holiday employers skipped their customary “we’re hiring X number of seasonal workers” announcements, and private trackers flag the weakest seasonal add since 2009. That backdrop squares with softer sentiment and a Beige Book that noted caution heading into year-end.¹

Retail Sales Look Flat Heading into Holiday Shopping Season

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Foot traffic and headlines can still look lively while the hard data underneath is more mixed. Freight and parcel anecdotes suggest restocking numbers could be lower after a front-loaded inventory build earlier in the year. And a notable industry forecast sees container volumes down sharply into Q4 after a strong first half. Add the lingering effects of the shutdown (delayed SNAP disbursements for some; pay timing issues for affected workers), and you get a holiday that may lean more promotional, more last-minute, and more bifurcated by income. For investors, the data to watch closely will come after the weekend rush. Look to see if retailers pull back on January orders, how deep December discounting runs, and if buy-now-pay-later usage, returns, and average ticket sizes confirm a cautious shopper or a steady one.

What 5,000 CEOs are Saying About Tariffs – The Wall Street Journal recently analyzed the earnings calls of 5,000 companies to see what CEOs were saying about tariffs at this point in the year. What the reporters found was that leaders are talking less about tariff “risk” and more about how they’re managing through it. Several forces are behind the shift. First, what firms actually pay has tended to undercut the sticker price. Oxford Economics estimates October’s average paid rate around 12% of import value—higher than January, but far shy of the most dramatic schedules. Second, selective rollbacks and carve-outs (e.g., recent food and agriculture items, cocoa, etc.) plus expanded offset programs in some categories have trimmed exposure. Third, companies have had time to adapt. They’ve renegotiated with suppliers, re-routed inputs, raised prices selectively, and absorbed a portion of costs with still-healthy margins. The tariff framing has turned from dour to “manageable.” But for investors, remember that “manageable” isn’t the same as painless. Many companies have absorbed higher prices and taken hits on margin, hoping to ride out the storm. But that sentiment will not last forever, and passing through those price increases will be something that may be inevitable in 2026. As we’ve written before, the biggest story to watch in the coming weeks will be the Supreme Court’s decision on tariffs, which could alter the legal footing for the tariff regime.⁴

For the Global Economy, Surveys Show Steady—But Uneven—Growth – Business surveys hit the tape globally during Thanksgiving week, with flash PMIs showing private-sector activity still grinding forward across several major economies.In the UK, weeks of budget chatter have weighed on confidence and nudged November’s composite PMI down to 50.5 (services 50.5; manufacturing 50.2). In France,  November’s flash composite rose to a 15-month high (49.9), driven by services popping back into expansion (50.8) even as manufacturing stayed soft. Here in the U.S., as expected, the shutdown didn’t halt business. The US flash services PMI edged up to 55.0 while manufacturing eased to 51.9, both still expansionary. Firms reported adding staff and facing higher input costs from wages and tariffs, but competitive pressure kept selling-price increases in check. Taken together, these snapshots show a global private sector that’s more resilient than headlines imply. Stocks haven’t been climbing on AI-driven hype alone. Underlying activity, especially in services, continues to show signs of modest expansion.⁵

Building a Resilient Retirement Portfolio in Today’s Market – With markets rotating, rates stabilizing, and economic data sending mixed signals, now is a smart time to strengthen your retirement strategy and keep your long-term plan on course.

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This guide offers actionable insights on:

• Accurately forecasting your retirement income needs
• The two phases of determining your asset allocation
• Developing an investment discipline that allows you to get good results over time
• Avoiding self-sabotage—what you need to know
• Plus, our views on key steps to create and maintain the ultimate retirement portfolio

If you have $500,000 or more to invest, get this guide to learn our ideas on the step-by-step process of building and maintaining a retirement portfolio that will potentially help you reach your goals and enjoy a secure retirement. 

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