Zacks Investment Management

What economic developments, key factors and questions should you consider when looking at your investments? In today’s Steady Investor, we take a look into some of this week’s top stories such as:

• The latest inflation reading and what it could mean for 2020
• The U.S. and China sign a limited trade deal. Now what?
• Deficit spending supports economic growth

Inflation in Check – The latest inflation reading from December 2019 confirmed what has been the case for the better part of the entire decade: inflation remains in check. The consumer price index showed a year-over-year increase of +2.3% in December for all goods, largely in-line with the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. For the decade, prices climbed at their slowest pace since the Great Depression, which we would argue was driven partly by technological advances (which put downward pressure on input costs, production, and cost of goods sold) and largely by the massive amount of spare capacity created as a result of the 2008 financial crisis and recession.¹ While the costs of many consumer goods continue to decline or remain steady, other areas have experienced rapid inflation, such as medical care and the cost of education. As you can see in the chart below, inflation growth has not been this slow since the 1960s, but that period was also followed by a significant spike that few expected. In our view, one of 2020’s surprises could be that inflation rises at a faster clip than many expect (though nowhere near what we saw in the late 1960s).

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How Can You Prepare for Rising Inflation and Other Retirement Uncertainties?
 
There are so many unknowns that come with planning your retirement – what if the market crashes or a medical emergency arises? No one can predict if these what-ifs will materialize—but there are simple steps you can take NOW to help ensure your secure and comfortable retirement.
 
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• How to counteract the effects of rising inflation
• Ideas to allocate your assets to defend against a correction or crash
• Strategies to deal with financial emergencies without liquidating investments
• Tax planning ideas to help avoid unpleasant surprises
• Plus more ways to help protect yourself and your family against retirement unknowns

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U.S. and China Sign Limited Trade Deal – Over the past year, businesses and markets have grappled with uncertainty stemming from the U.S. – China trade dispute. Business investment fell significantly between the two countries in 2019, and total trade between the two nations also dropped. 2019 figures show that China exported 12.5% fewer goods to the U.S. while importing 21% fewer goods. Though economic activity between the two nations suffered in 2019, it was not enough to derail the economic expansion at home or abroad. Enter 2020, and the U.S. and China are at the table signing “Phase 1” of a trade deal, one that aims to increase Chinese purchases of U.S. goods and services, further open Chinese markets to foreign companies (particularly in the realm of finance), and provides stronger protections for intellectual property and against forced technology transfer. Many provisions in the trade deal benefit U.S. companies, but it remains to be seen how China follows through – or whether they do at all. For instance, the language in the deal states that neither party (U.S. or China) will require or pressure persons to transfer technology, but China stopped short of agreeing to any law changes. In fact, the U.S. request for China to change laws was one of the reasons previous talks collapsed. There is also the fact that tariffs on some $370 billion in Chinese goods remain in place, which keeps price pressure on many U.S. multi-nationals.⁴

Deficit Spending Supports Economic Growth – Overall economic growth is driven by consumer spending, investment, government spending, and trade. While investment and trade have experienced some headwinds associated with the U.S. – China trade dispute, the other two categories – consumer spending and government spending – have not blinked. The U.S. consumer remains healthy amidst strong job growth and modest, but positive, wage growth. The U.S. government has also demonstrated a healthy penchant for spending, even as revenues have not grown as anticipated with the tax cut. In the twelve months ending December 2019, the federal deficit totaled $1.02 trillion, which marked the first time the deficit has creeped over the trillion mark since the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. Tax receipts grew 5% in 2019 but outlays grew by 7.5%, providing support to U.S. GDP growth in the calendar year.⁵

Just as we cannot predict exactly how these stories will pan out, we also cannot predict life’s uncertainties when it comes to retirement planning. No matter how carefully you prepare for retirement, life’s unknowns can throw your plans off track.

• The effects of inflation could diminish the real value of your nest egg
• A stock market correction or crash may cause your net worth to plummet
• Changes in your personal situation—such as a health emergency—could have an enormous impact on your nest egg

But you can take steps to prepare yourself and help protect your secure and comfortable retirement.
 
If you have $500,000 or more to invest, get our free guide, Retirement Uncertainties…and How to Breeze Through Them.⁶ It provides advice, based on our decades of experience, that we believe can help ensure that your golden years will be comfortable and secure.

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