Private Client Group

March 30th, 2020

Recession Looms, Government Responds, Industries That Are Thriving

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In today’s Steady Investor, we look at key factors that we believe are currently impacting market volatility and what could be next for the markets such as:

Recession a Near Lock as PMIs Sink – the United States and Europe experienced sharp declines in business activity in March, as measured by manufacturing and services purchasing manager’s indices (PMIs). Output was severely slowed by global shutdowns across the world, with supply chains continuing to be compromised and the service sector burdened with canceled travel plans, events, conferences, shops, restaurants, and most consumer engagement with the economy. Similar readings emerged from Japan, the eurozone, and the U.K., which means that purchasing managers – or those responsible for ordering supplies and changing inventories and prices for supply chains – are anticipating large losses in output, spending, and investment.1

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Are You Ready for the Recession?

You may have noticed more talk lately about the chances of a recession. Currently, the discussion is not if we will have a recession, but when. At some point, our economy will slip into a recession, in our view.

If you know a recession is coming—but you don’t know when—what can you do?

In our view, the best thing to do is prepare: Know the signs of recession, its possible effects, and take some key steps to protect yourself and your family from potential financial damage.

If you have $500,000 or more to invest, get our free guide today – A Recession is Coming: 6 Insights to Know Now So You’re Prepared.2

Download Your Free Guide Today!

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The U.S. Government Aims the Fiscal Cannon – The Federal Reserve has taken unprecedented action to provide the markets and businesses with virtually unlimited liquidity – extraordinary monetary policy action. Now, the U.S. government is following up with extraordinary fiscal stimulus measures. Plans were released this week for some $2 trillion in new stimulus. Some highlights from the Senate bill include:3

Some Industries and Companies are Thriving in the Current Environment – A broad swath of the US and global economy is set to experience pain in the coming weeks and months as a result of shutdowns and halted economic activity. Job losses will almost certainly skyrocket as consumption and GDP plummets. But US household consumption has not necessarily gone to zero – some of it has shifted into other “essential” parts of the economy. Hotels, restaurants, airlines, and retailers are obviously feeling the pain. But other areas of the economy are feeling boom-times: grocers, pharmacies, food and beverage companies, gun and ammunition shops, and cannabis. Many companies operating in these sub-sectors are seeing sharp increases in spending, as consumers pick up necessities (and a few other ‘recreational’ items) to help cope. Companies like Walmart, Amazon, and CVS are among a few big-name companies looking to hire 500,000 Americans in the coming weeks. Then there are delivery services like Instacart and DoorDash that are expected to significantly increase their workforce (in the case of Instacart potentially two-fold). 4 Technology companies like Google, Facebook, and Netflix operate on the internet with no physical contact between consumers. And as many of us are now aware, we’re using their services perhaps more than ever before.  

How to Prepare for a Recession? While some industries may be thriving, the overall economy is heading toward a recession, in our view. The question now is when will it happen? In our view, the best thing to do is prepare: Know the signs of recession, its possible effects, and take some key steps to protect yourself and your family from potential financial damage.

If you have $500,000 or more to invest, get our free guide today A Recession is Coming: 6 Insights to Know Now So You’re Prepared.5

You’ll learn some of the most common indicators of recession, and get our viewpoint on the most important moves you can make to weather a recession. Don’t wait—get this guide before the storm hits.

Disclosure

1 The Wall Street Journal, March 24, 2020. https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-could-trigger-global-recession-says-imf-11585046688

2 ZIM may amend or rescind the guide “A Recession is Coming: 6 Insights to Know Now So You’re Prepared” for any reason and at ZIM’s discretion.

3 The Wall Street Journal, March 26, 2020. https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-administration-senate-democrats-said-to-reach-stimulus-bill-deal-11585113371?mod=hp_lead_pos2

4 The Wall Street Journal, March 24, 2020. https://www.wsj.com/articles/groceries-guns-and-news-what-sells-in-a-pandemicand-what-doesnt-11585042200

5 ZIM may amend or rescind the guide “A Recession is Coming: 6 Insights to Know Now So You’re Prepared” for any reason and at ZIM’s discretion.

DISCLOSURE

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss.

Zacks Investment Management, Inc. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Zacks Investment Research. Zacks Investment Management is an independent Registered Investment Advisory firm and acts as an investment manager for individuals and institutions. Zacks Investment Research is a provider of earnings data and other financial data to institutions and to individuals.

This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. Do not act or rely upon the information and advice given in this publication without seeking the services of competent and professional legal, tax, or accounting counsel. Publication and distribution of this article is not intended to create, and the information contained herein does not constitute, an attorney-client relationship. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment or strategy is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole.

Any projections, targets, or estimates in this report are forward looking statements and are based on the firm’s research, analysis, and assumptions. Due to rapidly changing market conditions and the complexity of investment decisions, supplemental information and other sources may be required to make informed investment decisions based on your individual investment objectives and suitability specifications. All expressions of opinions are subject to change without notice. Clients should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any security or investment strategy discussed in this presentation.

Certain economic and market information contained herein has been obtained from published sources prepared by other parties. Zacks Investment Management does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information. Further, no third party has assumed responsibility for independently verifying the information contained herein and accordingly no such persons make any representations with respect to the accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of the information provided herein. Unless otherwise indicated, market analysis and conclusions are based upon opinions or assumptions that Zacks Investment Management considers to be reasonable. Any investment inherently involves a high degree of risk, beyond any specific risks discussed herein.

The S&P 500 Index is a well-known, unmanaged index of the prices of 500 large-company common stocks, mainly blue-chip stocks, selected by Standard & Poor’s. The S&P 500 Index assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect advisory fees. The volatility of the benchmark may be materially different from the individual performance obtained by a specific investor. An investor cannot invest directly in an index.

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