Private Client Group

May 26th, 2020

Powell and Mnuchin Differ, Oil Stabilizes, U.S.-China Relationship

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In today’s Steady Investor, we look at key factors that we believe are currently impacting the market and what could be next for the markets such as:

The Fed Chair and Treasury Secretary Offer Diverging Views of Economy – Online congressional hearings took place on Tuesday, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin taking questions. Though Chairman Powell and Secretary Mnuchin are very much working together to respond to the economic crisis at hand, Secretary Mnuchin is pursuing the Trump administration’s economic goals while Chairman Powell oversees the politically independent Federal Reserve. It follows that the two men posited diverging views of the U.S. economic recovery, and what is required to facilitate it. Secretary Mnuchin believes that the biggest risk of permanent damage to the U.S. economy comes from not reopening. Delaying reopening and leaving restrictions in place too long will prolong the recovery and inhibit a “V-shaped” recovery, in his view. Secretary Mnuchin also favors a wait-and-see approach to more fiscal and monetary stimulus. Chairman Powell offered a different perspective, stating that the biggest risk to the economic recovery was consumers and businesses’ attitudes about the risk of Covid-19 infection. Chairman Powell believes that more stimulus is needed now to buy more time for the infection to come under better control, a vaccine to hit the market, and/or both.1 In the meantime, Chairman Powell thinks that more spending is needed by Washington to prevent structural damage from high unemployment and a wave of bankruptcies.

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Dividend-paying Stocks May Offer a Solution
 
The challenge many retirement investors are facing through this crisis is knowing where to invest. Cash won’t do. But a portfolio invested in stocks with a strong track record of dividends and dividend growth may give investors the potential for a stable and predictable source of income in retirement.
 
To learn more about how to use dividend-paying stocks in your strategy to potentially generate cash flow for retirement, check out our guide “A Look Beyond Bonds: There May Be a Better Option for Your Retirement Income.”
 
 If you have $500,000 or more to invest, click on the link below to get our free guide today!
 
A Look Beyond Bonds: There May Be a Better Option for Your Retirement Income2

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The Topsy-Turvy Economic Relationship with China – Tension between the United States and China is decisively ratcheting higher. The United States is actively questioning China’s role in the pandemic as well as lack of transparency between China and the World Health Organization, while China defends itself and its actions with an air of hostility. Overall, relations between the world’s two largest economies have chilled, to say the least. Corporations are responding somewhat differently. On the one hand, the pandemic laid bare the risks of complex supply chains with heavy exposure to China and other developing economies. Corporations are strongly considering restructuring supply chains as a result, or reshoring them altogether. On the other hand, companies with strong consumer presence appear to be doubling down on China’s projection for long-term growth potential. Companies like Walmart, Tesla, Starbucks, and even Popeye’s are increasing their local presence and unveiling plans to open more stores and sales channels into the future.3

Signs of Stability in the Oil Markets – Many readers likely remember the oil price collapse earlier in the year, when for a moment some oil futures fell into negative territory. The tables appear to be showing signs of turning now that the worst of the pandemic appears to be behind the world. In the futures markets for Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate, traders were bidding up the price of December delivery for barrels of oil.4 It is not common for traders to actively trade in contracts so far into the future, but the bidding up of December contracts may reflect a consensus that demand is likely to rebound in the second half.

Will Unemployment Benefits Impact the Labor Market? A working paper released this week by three University of Chicago economists suggests that unemployment benefits during the Covid-19 pandemic may have some inhibitive impact on the recovery. As it stands today, more than two-thirds of unemployed Americans receiving benefits are being paid more than they were at their old jobs. These payments are in addition to the $239 billion that the IRS has paid out in stimulus checks to tide households over. While the economists argue that the payments offer a much-needed bridge to keep households liquid and consumption steady during the crisis, the thrust of the paper also suggests that receiving high benefits may “create distributional issues and may hamper efficient labor reallocation both now and during the recovery.”5 In other words, Americans may be less in a hurry to get back to their old jobs if they’re making more today than they were before.

As this crisis continues, you may be wondering what can you do in the meantime to protect your retirement. You have to invest somewhere, as cash won’t do. In times like this, I would suggest considering stocks that are growing earnings and dividends and have a track record of doing so.

To learn more about how to use dividend-paying stocks in your strategy to potentially generate cash flow for retirement, check out our guide “A Look Beyond Bonds: There May Be a Better Option for Your Retirement Income.”6

 If you have $500,000 or more to invest, click on the link below to get our free guide today!

Disclosure

1 The Wall Street Journal, May 19, 2020. https://www.wsj.com/articles/powell-mnuchin-set-to-face-lawmakers-over-crisis-lending-programs-11589880602

2 Zacks Investment Management reserves the right to amend the terms or rescind the free A Look Beyond Bonds: There May Be a Better Option for Your Retirement Income offer at any time and for any reason at its discretion.

3 The Wall Street Journal, May 19, 2020. https://www.wsj.com/articles/neither-coronavirus-nor-trade-tensions-can-stop-u-s-companies-push-into-china-11589880603

4 The Wall Street Journal, May 18, 2020. https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-oil-market-is-betting-people-want-crude-for-christmas-11589794202

5 Becker Friedman Institute, May 2020. https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/BFI_WP_202062-1.pdf

6 Zacks Investment Management reserves the right to amend the terms or rescind the free A Look Beyond Bonds: There May Be a Better Option for Your Retirement Income offer at any time and for any reason at its discretion.

DISCLOSURE

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss.

Zacks Investment Management, Inc. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Zacks Investment Research. Zacks Investment Management is an independent Registered Investment Advisory firm and acts as an investment manager for individuals and institutions. Zacks Investment Research is a provider of earnings data and other financial data to institutions and to individuals.

This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. Do not act or rely upon the information and advice given in this publication without seeking the services of competent and professional legal, tax, or accounting counsel. Publication and distribution of this article is not intended to create, and the information contained herein does not constitute, an attorney-client relationship. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment or strategy is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole.

Any projections, targets, or estimates in this report are forward looking statements and are based on the firm’s research, analysis, and assumptions. Due to rapidly changing market conditions and the complexity of investment decisions, supplemental information and other sources may be required to make informed investment decisions based on your individual investment objectives and suitability specifications. All expressions of opinions are subject to change without notice. Clients should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any security or investment strategy discussed in this presentation.

Certain economic and market information contained herein has been obtained from published sources prepared by other parties. Zacks Investment Management does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information. Further, no third party has assumed responsibility for independently verifying the information contained herein and accordingly no such persons make any representations with respect to the accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of the information provided herein. Unless otherwise indicated, market analysis and conclusions are based upon opinions or assumptions that Zacks Investment Management considers to be reasonable. Any investment inherently involves a high degree of risk, beyond any specific risks discussed herein.

The S&P 500 Index is a well-known, unmanaged index of the prices of 500 large-company common stocks, mainly blue-chip stocks, selected by Standard & Poor’s. The S&P 500 Index assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect advisory fees. The volatility of the benchmark may be materially different from the individual performance obtained by a specific investor. An investor cannot invest directly in an index.
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