Private Client Group

April 19th, 2021

China’s Magnet Monopoly, Banks Look Strong in 2021, World Chip Shortage

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Zacks Investment Management provides insight into the biggest news stories, and key factors that we believe are currently impacting the market such as:

An Unlikely Front in the Economic Battle Against China – Many economic battles are being waged between the West and China, as the world’s second largest economy (China) angles to become the most important on the world stage. One of the unlikely fronts in the economic battle: magnets. Magnets have far more critical uses than many might expect. They are key components in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and a slew of other next generation technology. In other words, demand for magnets is likely to press higher from here. The problem in the marketplace currently is that China mines over 70% of the world’s rare earths and is responsible for 90% of the process of turning them into magnets. What’s more, China can both mine and convert rare earths at a much lower cost than other developed countries, given state subsidies, lower labor costs, and a decades-long head start on the technology needed to process the rare earths. The West is not necessarily sitting idly by – businesses are posturing for government support to ramp up supply chains for producing magnets at a lower cost, but maybe years or even decades away from contributing a steady supply. President Biden signed an executive order in February directing a review of supply chains for critical materials, in an effort to take steps to diversify away from China.1

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Banks Look to Be in a Strong Position for 2021 – In the years following the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, banks engaged in a years-long effort to recapitalize and boost their tier 1 capital ratios. The banks acted out of necessity – new laws required them to hold a certain amount of cash on hand relative to debt and other liabilities. It follows that going into the Covid-19 pandemic, banks were well-capitalized and ready to weather a fairly severe economic storm. Banks set aside billions in reserves to brace for a wave of loan losses, and they booked the reserves against profit for the first half of last year. Turns out, for banks, that storm did not turn out to be as bad as many anticipated. One year later, and banks are ready to release some of the ‘rainy-day money’ they set aside in the wake of the pandemic, which should provide a stiff tailwind to Q1 2021 earnings and also perhaps feed into lending in the new year. Another economic indicator supporting the case for banks to do well in 2021: the yield curve. An upward sloping yield curve generally favors bank earnings, since banks can borrow money on the short-end of the curve and lend it out at long-term rates. The spread is known as a bank’s net interest margins, and the steeper the yield curve, the higher the profit. When the line below is rising, the yield curve is steepening. Which you can see has been the case of late.3

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis4

The Semiconductor Shortage is Real – Global supply chain disruptions have created bottlenecks for many key inputs, but none perhaps as acute and critical as semiconductors. The issues are prevalent on two fronts: supply and demand. On the demand side, the global movement to set up home offices and buy new computers and other electronics led to a sharp increase in the need for semiconductors. On the supply side, semiconductor manufacturers did not expect demand so sustain or even go up during the pandemic, and were caught flat-footed when it did. Semiconductors are most often associated with computers and electronics, but they are also critical components of automobiles. Automakers across the spectrum, including Ford, Toyota, Honda, and General Motors have gone as far as to halt or reduce production due to lack of essential components. One fear among economists is that the semiconductor shortage will eventually find its way down into consumer prices, and we are starting to see early evidence of that – in March, the average used vehicle cost 13% more than a year earlier.5

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Disclosure

1 Wall Street Journal. April 11, 2021. https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-faces-uphill-climb-to-rival-chinas-rare-earth-magnet-industry-11618133603

2 Zacks Investment Management reserves the right to amend the terms or rescind the free How the Looking to Retire in 2021? Here are 4 Things to Consider First offer at any time and for any reason at its discretion.

3 Wall Street Journal. July 14, 2020. https://www.wsj.com/articles/this-is-not-a-normal-recession-banks-ready-for-wave-of-coronavirus-defaults-11594746008?mod=djemMoneyBeat_us

4 Fred Economic Data. April 14, 2021. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y#0

5 Wall Street Journal. April 12, 2021. https://www.wsj.com/articles/chip-shortage-is-bad-for-gm-but-worse-for-car-buyers-11618234080

6 Zacks Investment Management reserves the right to amend the terms or rescind the free How the Looking to Retire in 2021? Here are 4 Things to Consider First offer at any time and for any reason at its discretion.

DISCLOSURE

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss.

Zacks Investment Management, Inc. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Zacks Investment Research. Zacks Investment Management is an independent Registered Investment Advisory firm and acts as an investment manager for individuals and institutions. Zacks Investment Research is a provider of earnings data and other financial data to institutions and to individuals.

This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. Do not act or rely upon the information and advice given in this publication without seeking the services of competent and professional legal, tax, or accounting counsel. Publication and distribution of this article is not intended to create, and the information contained herein does not constitute, an attorney-client relationship. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment or strategy is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole.

Any projections, targets, or estimates in this report are forward looking statements and are based on the firm’s research, analysis, and assumptions. Due to rapidly changing market conditions and the complexity of investment decisions, supplemental information and other sources may be required to make informed investment decisions based on your individual investment objectives and suitability specifications. All expressions of opinions are subject to change without notice. Clients should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any security or investment strategy discussed in this presentation.

Certain economic and market information contained herein has been obtained from published sources prepared by other parties. Zacks Investment Management does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information. Further, no third party has assumed responsibility for independently verifying the information contained herein and accordingly no such persons make any representations with respect to the accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of the information provided herein. Unless otherwise indicated, market analysis and conclusions are based upon opinions or assumptions that Zacks Investment Management considers to be reasonable.

Any investment inherently involves a high degree of risk, beyond any specific risks discussed herein.

It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Investors pursuing a strategy similar to an index may experience higher or lower returns, which will be reduced by fees and expenses.
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