Markets are sending mixed signals, but opportunities remain. In this week’s Steady Investor, we explore what’s driving sentiment now and how to stay focused on long-term results.
China’s Economy Shows Signs of Weakening – The world’s second-largest economy appears to be decelerating. For Q3 2025, China reported GDP growth of 4.8% y/y (down from 5.2% in Q2). The composition of the GDP number weakened, retail sales slowed to 3.0% y/y in September, fixed-asset investment slipped -0.5% from January to September versus a year earlier, and the real estate market remains a clear drag. Real estate investment is down -13.9% year to date, and prices are falling faster monthly. The data isn’t all negative, however. Industrial production accelerated to 6.5% y/y in September, and exports rose 6.1% y/y in the first nine months despite a near-17% drop to the U.S., a sign global demand is still cushioning domestic softness. We think more data points are needed to confirm whether China is firmly in a deceleration pattern, but early signs do indeed show softening. China’s government is signaling incremental easing and targeted support to shore up the economy, while advancing longer-run priorities like AI scaling and chip manufacturing. For markets, the takeaway is a slower but still-expanding economy likely guided by measured, sector-specific support rather than large-scale stimulus. Keep an eye on property stabilization efforts, the durability of export growth as front-loaded demand fades, and any turn in producer prices for clues as to how growth might trend in 2026.1
Market sentiment keeps shifting, from rate cuts and inflation surprises to global growth concerns. For retirees, these constant turns can make it hard to know when to stay the course and when to adjust.
That’s why we created Retirement Uncertainties… and How to Breeze Through Them2, a free guide built on proven strategies to help you protect your income and stay confident no matter what the next headline brings. Inside, you’ll find:
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Home Sales Show Signs of Rebounding, Hitting 7-Month Highs – Existing-home sales rose 1.5% in September to a 4.06 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, the highest since February. The pickup reflects contracts signed in late summer as mortgage rates drifted down from early-year peaks near 7%. The average 30-year fixed rate was 6.27% last week, and some fence-sitters finally moved.Affordability is still the swing factor for most Americans. The median existing-home price rose 2.1% y/y to $415,200, and the typical monthly payment over the four weeks ended October 12 was $2,564, which is higher than it was last year. Inventory is loosening, but not enough to make a big impact. Total homes listed or under contract rose to 1.55 million in September, up 1.3% month over month and 14% year over year, though supply is still thin versus pre-pandemic norms. Looking ahead, the key swing factors are straightforward. Additional Fed cuts may help nudge mortgage rates lower and ease affordability. A softer labor market would work the other way if job worries rise.3
Regional Banks Look Shaky – Is the Concern Warranted? Last week, a pair of U.S. regional lenders disclosed losses tied to allegedly misrepresented commercial-mortgage collateral. The news sent worries reverberating through Wall Street. A widely watched regional-bank index fell about 5% on a single trading day as “contagion” concerns resurfaced. Given 2023’s isolated blowups, many investors are reasonably on edge about whether more failures could be nigh. Zooming in, however, the immediate exposures disclosed so far look small relative to balance sheets. For even the banks at the center of the headlines, we’re talking about a few tenths of a percent of total loans. To be fair, this small exposure doesn’t make the cases trivial—fraud and documentation disputes are late-cycle risks that can multiply if credit conditions deteriorate. But by themselves, these figures don’t point to system-wide impairment. Traditional liquidity backstops (e.g., the Fed’s discount window) aren’t flashing stress. Deposit trends, capital ratios and nonperforming-asset metrics across most regionals remain within post-2020 ranges, even as charge-offs have drifted higher from unusually low levels. For investors, the thing to watch from here is whether similar collateral disputes crop up elsewhere. We’ll be watching the pace of net charge-offs in commercial real estate (especially office and construction), deposit mix and funding costs as rates drift, and unrealized securities losses as long yields move. It’s also critical to watch for any step-up in the use of emergency facilities.4
Is Your Retirement Ready for What’s Next? The markets aren’t standing still. Policy changes, rate cuts, and global slowdowns are all shifting what retirement security looks like. The question isn’t whether things will change, it’s how prepared you’ll be when they do.
Get your free copy of Retirement Uncertainties… and How to Breeze Through Them5 for straightforward strategies that help you stay protected, no matter what comes next. Inside, you’ll discover:
If you have $500,000 or more to invest, download Retirement Uncertainties…and How to Breeze Through Them.5
Disclosure