Private Client Group

June 1st, 2021

Consumers Shift Spending Habits, Red-Hot Housing, Possible Metals Shortage

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In today’s Steady Investor, we dive into current news and key factors that we believe are currently impacting the market, such as:

American Consumers are Shifting Spending Habits – Remember the time last year when U.S. households only seemed to spend money on groceries, toilet paper, personal computers, tech for home offices, Pelotons, and home improvement projects? Well, a decisive shift is on, in what the Wall Street Journal dubbed “The Great American Cleanup.” Instead of buying goods suitable for life at home, American consumers are spending money on goods and services needed for re-entry into civilization. Deodorant, teeth whitener, haircuts, swimsuits, perfumes, grooming products, and travel gear are among the categories seeing a surge in demand. With roughly 50% of American adults vaccinated, there is a growing desire to ‘get back out there,’ which means cleaning up and spending money in close-contact services. Think restaurants, live music events, bars, and other forms of entertainment. This shift in spending is great news overall, but it also leaves many economists and business owners with a new question: is consumer spending in new categories like travel, entertainment, and personal care going to come at the cost of spending in other areas?1

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Checking in On the Red-Hot Housing Market – In April, the median price of a new home was $372,400, which marks a 20.1% jump from the previous year and also marks the biggest annual gain since 1988. Existing home sales have seen similar patterns, with the market lacking supply relative to demand. As you can see from the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, prices of all homes have risen at a rapid clip over the last year.3

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis4

Strong home buying demand could be rooted in multiple causes – ultralow interest rates, millennials entering the market as first-time homebuyers, and wealth gains coming from the stock market and other investments. Homebuilders have not been able to keep up, and lack of inventory at this stage in the cycle may be causing home sales to ease. By some economists’ measures, it could take years to shrink the nationwide deficit of houses, which is further complicated by rising costs of building materials like lumber.

Is There a Coming Commodity Shortage? Commodity prices have also been rising over the last year, with the prices of precious metals like cobalt, copper, nickel, and lithium seeing strong gains over the last year. But even with higher prices and better profits, miners have been balking at investing big dollars in new projects. The rationale behind investment hesitancy is that mining company investors are pushing for higher dividends instead of new investments, considering many companies burned through cash during the last bull market in commodities. In other words, shareholders are asking for a little profit-taking in the current environment, versus new investment. This has led to concern that the global economy could experience a shortage of metals later in this expansion.5

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Disclosure

1 Wall Street Journal. May 24, 2021. https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-great-american-clean-up-deodorant-teeth-whitener-fly-off-the-shelves-11621869232

2 Zacks Investment Management reserves the right to amend the terms or rescind the free How the Looking to Retire in 2021? Here are 4 Things to Consider First offer at any time and for any reason at its discretion.

3 Wall Street Journal. May 25, 2021. https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-home-price-growth-accelerates-in-march-11621947742

4 Fred Economic Data. May 25, 2021. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA#0

5 Wall Street Journal. May 25, 2021. https://www.wsj.com/articles/commodity-prices-have-soared-but-miners-arent-investing-11621940401

6 Zacks Investment Management reserves the right to amend the terms or rescind the free How the Looking to Retire in 2021? Here are 4 Things to Consider First offer at any time and for any reason at its discretion.

DISCLOSURE

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss.

Zacks Investment Management, Inc. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Zacks Investment Research. Zacks Investment Management is an independent Registered Investment Advisory firm and acts as an investment manager for individuals and institutions. Zacks Investment Research is a provider of earnings data and other financial data to institutions and to individuals.

This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. Do not act or rely upon the information and advice given in this publication without seeking the services of competent and professional legal, tax, or accounting counsel. Publication and distribution of this article is not intended to create, and the information contained herein does not constitute, an attorney-client relationship. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment or strategy is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole.

Any projections, targets, or estimates in this report are forward looking statements and are based on the firm’s research, analysis, and assumptions. Due to rapidly changing market conditions and the complexity of investment decisions, supplemental information and other sources may be required to make informed investment decisions based on your individual investment objectives and suitability specifications. All expressions of opinions are subject to change without notice. Clients should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any security or investment strategy discussed in this presentation.

Certain economic and market information contained herein has been obtained from published sources prepared by other parties. Zacks Investment Management does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information. Further, no third party has assumed responsibility for independently verifying the information contained herein and accordingly no such persons make any representations with respect to the accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of the information provided herein. Unless otherwise indicated, market analysis and conclusions are based upon opinions or assumptions that Zacks Investment Management considers to be reasonable.

Any investment inherently involves a high degree of risk, beyond any specific risks discussed herein.

It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Investors pursuing a strategy similar to an index may experience higher or lower returns, which will be reduced by fees and expenses.
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