The Iran Conflict and Oil & Gas Prices – As we write, oil prices have risen over $10 per barrel in a sharp move following military strikes involving Iran over the weekend. As readers know, oil is the primary driver of what consumers pay at the pump, and a common rule of thumb is that a $10 increase in crude adds roughly 10 to 15 cents per gallon. Up to this point, falling gas prices have helped cool inflation, so a reversal could stifle the downward trend just as the Federal Reserve deliberates further rate cuts. By some estimates, a 5% increase in oil prices adds about 0.1 percentage point to year-over-year inflation, which is modest unless the move is sustained and prolonged. That’s the key question for investors today. Looking back on recent history, the brief 15-day Iran–Israel conflict last year pushed oil prices higher temporarily, but the move faded quickly once markets determined supply wasn’t meaningfully disrupted. By contrast, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 sent oil prices above $100 per barrel for a sustained period, contributing meaningfully to the inflation surge that followed. The key difference for investors today is whether this proves to be a short-lived geopolitical premium or a prolonged supply shock. Time will tell, but if this proves to be a temporary spike tied to geopolitical uncertainty, in our view the impact on inflation and household budgets would likely be limited. Whether gasoline becomes a sustained pressure point will depend less on headlines and more on how long oil prices stay elevated.1
Staying Focused When Markets Feel Uncertain
With markets reacting to “breaking news” headlines, it’s easy for investors to lose focus. But reacting to short-term swings can do more harm than good.
That’s why we put together our free guide, Using Market Volatility to Your Advantage2. It shows how to turn periods of uncertainty into chances to strengthen your portfolio and stay on track toward long-term goals. Inside, you’ll learn:
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Regarding the AI Jobs ‘Apocalypse’ – (to note: mention of individual companies does not constitute an investment recommendation) One company’s announcement made major waves in markets last week. Recent layoffs at payments company Block ignited debate about whether artificial intelligence will trigger widespread job losses, and the market took note. CEO Jack Dorsey framed the decision to cut roughly 4,000 employees as part of a broader shift in how companies operate, as AI becomes embedded in business workflows. He also suggested it was a matter of time before many firms followed a similar path. But the situation may be less dire than the headlines suggest. It’s important to note that many technology companies expanded rapidly during the pandemic and have spent the past several years trimming excess capacity. Block itself conducted multiple rounds of layoffs before the latest announcement, and some former employees say the restructuring reflects familiar corporate priorities of cost management, reorganizing teams, and focusing on core initiatives—rather than a sweeping AI-driven overhaul. We would also argue that signaling commitment to AI has also become strategically important on Wall Street. Companies are racing to show investors they understand the shift toward artificial intelligence and are adapting quickly. In that environment, layoffs framed as “AI-driven” can reduce costs while also telegraphing to markets that leadership is preparing the company for a technology-driven future. While these stories tend to create a lot of buzz, for now the broader labor market shows little sign of an AI-driven collapse in employment. Layoffs remain relatively contained, and many technology roles actually continue to grow. That doesn’t mean AI won’t reshape the workforce. But it suggests the transition is likely to unfold gradually rather than as a sudden “jobs apocalypse.”3 4
Another Sign of Strain in Private Credit – we recently wrote about elevated redemptions at Blue Owl, and now Blackstone’s $82 billion private-credit fund, Bcred, is seeing similar activity. Blackstone reported net outflows of $1.7 billion in its latest quarter, which is the largest on record for the vehicle. Investors redeemed roughly 7.9% of the fund, exceeding the standard 5% quarterly limit that many semiliquid funds typically honor, as managers took extra steps to meet withdrawal requests in full.Private-credit managers have attributed the wave of redemptions to ‘fearmongering’ around recent corporate bankruptcies and concerns over exposure to technology and software companies. Indeed, roughly a quarter of Bcred’s portfolio is tied to software businesses, which is an area that recently faced valuation pressure amid AI-related disruption fears (with Anthropic’s latest Claude update triggering the selloff). While fund managers maintain that underlying portfolio performance remains solid, individual investors have shown a greater tendency to redeem when an asset class underperforms expectations.The key question is whether these redemptions represent a temporary sentiment shift or the early stages of broader stress in private credit. While the industry has so far been able to meet redemption requests without disruption, elevated withdrawals are a reminder that private credit—by design—is less liquid than traditional markets. For investors, rising redemptions are worth monitoring closely as the asset class moves into a potentially more challenging environment.5
Iran, AI, and Private Credit—What Should Investors Do Now? Markets are shifting, and the outlook isn’t always straightforward. The key is staying disciplined and knowing how to position your portfolio through uncertainty.
Our free guide, Using Market Volatility to Your Advantage6, shares insights to help you navigate risks and spot opportunities, including:
If you have $500,000 or more to invest, download this free guide today by clicking on the link below.
Disclosure