In today’s Steady Investor, we look at what is going on in the markets and key takeaways and questions for investors to consider, such as:
Stable Economies May Prolong Trade War – Both the U.S. and China appear to be eager to end the trade dispute and arrive at a deal suitable for both countries. But the question complicating matters today is, does either country actually need the trade war to end? The U.S. economy is poised to grow in the 2% to 2.5% range in 2020, according to Zacks estimates, and the U.S. consumer has proven resilient in the face of tariffs and political uncertainty (see story below). Meanwhile, in China, recent economic data points to an upswing in some key growth areas, particularly the Caixan China Purchasing Managers Index for Services which rose to a seven-month high in November. China has also pledged additional stimulus measures with the full muscle of fiscal and monetary levers if need be,1 which leads us to believe they may be more willing to ‘wait it out’ versus ‘giving in.’ President Trump announced this week that he was willing to wait until after the 2020 election to strike a deal, which would mean another twelve months of tariffs and stunted business investment. As long as neither economy appears at imminent risk of recession, we may not reasonably expect this trade war to end.
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What is the Biggest Hurdle for Global Equity Markets?
Looking beyond the U.S. and China’s dispute, the global economy appears to be slowing. It follows that the biggest hurdle for global equity markets is whether or not non-U.S. economies can stage a growth comeback in 2020, even if just a small one.
In our just-released Market Strategy report, we take a closer look at what’s at stake on the global stage. Many factors are hanging in the balance. Among them, a few possible ‘bull market catalysts’ that investors will want to watch for.
If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn more, click on the link below to get your free report today!
Download Our Just-Released December Market Strategy Report2
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Oil Prices Settle Into “Sweet Spot” – Throughout the second half of 2019, oil prices have managed to hover within a trading band of $50 to $60 a barrel, which under current economic conditions is arguably a ‘sweet spot’ for both consumers and producers. Consumers benefit from recognizable and relatively modest cost of gas and heating, and producers can still profitably drill and refine. OPEC and a 10-nation coalition led by Russia met this week to hash out potential supply curbs heading into 2020, which may add to near-term stickiness of crude oil prices. Saudi Arabia has particular interest in seeing crude oil prices rise in the near term, as price increases would support the planned IPO for the state-owned oil giant, Saudi Aramco.3
The Robust U.S. Consumer – The economic and stock market growth narrative has largely centered on the US consumer recently. Since US manufacturing is in decline, corporate earnings are negative (quarter over quarter), and business investment is soft, the US consumer has been the glue holding the expansion and bull market together. It follows that all eyes were on early retail spending reports from the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, with Black Friday and Cyber Monday the biggest shopping days of the year. Market watchers were not disappointed: American shoppers increased weekend spending by 16% from last year, with Cyber Monday’s jump clocking a staggering 20% increase from 2018. The National Retail Federation reports that 190 million shoppers bought goods and services over the weekend, which also marked a double-digit gain of 14% over last year. Any doubts that the US consumer was running out of steam should arguably be put to rest for the time being.4
More Tariffs, Again? Fresh tariffs were announced – but not implemented – this week, as President Trump shifted focus from China to France and South America. In France, the Trump Administration is responding to a new ‘digital-services tax,’ which targets mainly U.S. tech companies like Google and Facebook. Proposed tariffs amount to 100% on approximately $2.4 billion of French imports, from champagne to cheese to handbags. Meanwhile, in South America, the Trump Administration is proposing new tariffs on steel and aluminum from Brazil and Argentina, after accusing the countries of devaluing currencies – thus hurting American farmers.5
The Biggest Hurdle for Global Equity Markets – The global economy outside of the U.S. is clearly slowing. In our view, the biggest hurdle for global equity markets is whether or not non-U.S. economies can stage a growth comeback in 2020, even if just a small one. Policy prescriptions at major central banks may provide some support, but cyclical forces need to come into play as well for growth to be sustainable.
To learn more about this story, check out our just-released Market Strategy report.6 We take a closer look at what’s at stake on the global stage. Many factors are hanging in the balance. Among them, a few possible ‘bull market catalysts’ that investors will want to watch for.
If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn more, click on the link below to get your free report today!
Disclosure