In today’s Steady Investor, we look at key factors that we believe are currently impacting the market, and what could be next, such as:
Japan Shows Why Trade Deals Could Be Far Harder Than Expected – In the days following “Liberation Day,” the Trump administration talked up the possibility of “90 deals in 90 days.” So far there’s been one (the U.K.). Japan shows why getting more deals quickly may be harder than everyone expects. Talks between the two countries have faltered, with officials at an impasse over auto tariffs and broader reciprocal duties. U.S. negotiators signaled they may escalate pressure by proposing voluntary export restrictions, but Japanese officials rejected any agreement that preserves elevated tariffs—particularly on cars, a core industry for Japan.
The trade standoff comes amid growing confusion about the direction of U.S. policy. Officials have sent mixed signals on deadlines and goals, while other countries—including Canada, South Korea, and the European Union—navigate a shifting set of demands tied to tariff relief, digital services, and restrictions on Chinese trade routes. In some cases, talks have broken down altogether before being abruptly restarted. For Japan, the stakes are particularly high. Tariffs on Japanese autos were set at 24% before the pause—far above pre-existing levels—and officials say a deal that fails to reduce those duties would be politically untenable ahead of national elections in late July. Tokyo has also resisted agreeing to new quotas on car exports, especially after other allies like the U.K. received sector-specific relief. Despite near-continuous dialogue, a breakthrough appears unlikely in the near term. For investors, the message is clear: headline-driven trade diplomacy remains fluid and highly unpredictable. While tariff announcements and cease-fires have dominated markets in recent months, actual deals are proving more elusive, and with the July deadline looming, the risk of renewed trade disruptions remains elevated.1
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The Rise of the Robots – This week, Amazon announced it now operates more than one million robots in its facilities—nearly matching the number of human workers—marking a new phase in its years-long push to modernize logistics and fulfillment through robotics and artificial intelligence. Roughly 75% of Amazon’s global deliveries are now touched by robotics, whether through mobile bots transporting inventory, robotic arms performing complex picking and sorting tasks, or machine-vision systems optimizing packaging flows. At some advanced facilities, robots help move products 25% faster than traditional sites, while newer facilities have notably smaller employee footprints. While automation has helped Amazon boost productivity and reduce reliance on high-turnover labor, it is also transforming the nature of warehouse work. The company has retrained more than 700,000 employees globally for higher-skilled roles related to robotics, including mechatronics apprenticeships and robot monitoring. Many former manual workers now operate or supervise the very machines that have replaced lifting, pulling, and repetitive sorting tasks (to note: we do not make specific stock recommendations and the mention of Amazon in this write-up should not be construed as investment advice).3
Is the U.S. Jobs Market Showing Signs of Weakening? The U.S. labor market is still growing, but likely at a much slower pace than headline numbers suggest. Through May, the monthly average sits at 124,000 jobs, compared to 168,000 in 2024. That slowdown reflects a mix of economic headwinds, including volatile trade policy, public-sector cutbacks, and a sharp decline in immigration.On the surface, the labor market appears stable. Layoffs remain low, and wage growth has held up. But beneath the surface, hiring has cooled, and many job seekers are struggling to find work. The result is a stagnant labor market with little churn. Workers who have jobs are staying put, while those entering or re-entering the workforce face fewer openings.
Further complicating the picture are downward revisions to previously released data. For the first four months of the year, the Labor Department has revised monthly job gains lower by an average of 55,000. That’s a significant adjustment and it suggests the original estimates were overly optimistic. Payroll processor ADP, which tracks private-sector employment, reported a 33,000 job decline in June, driven by a 47,000 job loss among small businesses. Hiring by smaller firms has averaged just 5,300 jobs a month this year—down sharply from nearly 40,000 per month in 2024.4
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