Bill E. from Chevy Chase, MD asks: Good morning Mitch, I’m a little concerned about taxes going up with the latest $3.5 trillion budget package. I’ve long known that municipal bonds are a way to generate some tax-free growth and income, but have never invested. Curious to hear your thoughts, and whether now is a relatively good time for Muni bond investing. Thank you.
Mitch’s Response:
Thank you for the note, Bill. I’ve seen some version of your question quite a bit recently, as high net-worth investors start to think about the possible implications of tax increases associated with the American Families Plan.
For readers who aren’t familiar, municipal bonds are an asset class that can – in some cases – offer preferential tax treatment. ‘Munis’ (as they’re often called) are debt securities that are issued at the state or local level. Chevy Chase may issue municipal bonds to pay for a new school or a new bridge, for instance.
Municipal bonds are not taxable at the federal level, which is what makes them attractive to some investors. But Munis are not necessarily fully tax-free – your home state may tax you on interest income if you buy a municipal bond from another state, and there are a few other instances where an investor may be surprised by a capital gains tax bill. I’d recommend working with a tax advisor before diving in.1
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As far as the current state of municipal bonds, our head of fixed income, Manish Jain, has recently written that municipal bonds have been performing well, as the reopening of the U.S. economy has boosted consumer spending and as housing markets remain hot. Demand for tax-free income has also been sustained from investors fearing higher income tax rates in the future, which I think is the basis of your question. 2021 looks to be on pace to surpass 2019 as the best fund flow year ever.
Fundamentally, in our view, the outlook for state and local municipalities remains favorable, and the potential passage of the infrastructure bill should bode well for local finances as well.3 There’s also been an interesting pandemic dynamic worth noting – states emerged from the pandemic relatively unscathed, and in many cases ended up with budget surpluses given the unprecedented levels of fiscal stimulus funds. Many thought that states’ finances would be rattled by the pandemic, but the outcome was oftentimes the opposite.
There have been a few risks worth noting across the country, however. The wildfires in the West have been fairly intense, and storms and flooding have wreaked some havoc in the South and Northeast. These risks are not new, and state and federal aid – along with insurance – should help curb the financial impact. But these are the types of risks municipal bond investors should consider.
As you can probably surmise, I’m neither bullish nor bearish on municipal bonds. I think they can play a key role in an investor portfolio by providing a diversified source of income with potential tax benefits. But overall, I’m not an advocate for allowing the ‘tax tail to wag the investment dog.’ Tax strategy matters, but total return strategy matters more.
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