Volatility persists with headlines signaling fears of a recession signaled by a near flat yield curve, rising interest rates and fears of a global slowdown. But we aren’t convinced these factors are powerful enough to derail economic growth. Read on to get more details in news stories of the week…
Is the Trade “Truce” Between the U.S. and China Real? – in a closely watched meeting between the leaders of the world’s two largest economies, President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed in principle to a tariff ‘cease-fire’ over 90 days beginning on December 1. Before the dinner between the two leaders at the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires, the U.S. was planning to increase tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods from 10% to 25%, but the truce will postpone those plans as the two sides re-enter negotiations to try and resolve major differences. There appeared to be confusion over what was actually agreed to in Argentina, however, as President Trump indicated on Twitter that the Chinese had made concessions regarding cut tariffs on U.S. cars and agreements to purchase more agricultural products. Beijing did not confirm any of those concessions, though a spokesman said that the negotiations have a “clear timeline and road map” and that China aims to quickly implement “an agreed upon consensus.1”
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Should Headlines Influence Your Investment Decisions?
This seems to be the question of the week as most headlines have investors spooked that this could be the beginning of a recession. In our view, when it comes to investing, letting the media noise sway your judgment can make you vulnerable to costly financial mistakes.
To help you avoid falling prey to this mistake, we are offering you our just-released guide “Should Headlines Influence Your Investment Decisions.”2 In this guide, we discuss three behavioral tendencies that we believe investors should keep in mind if a headline makes you edgy or nervous.
If you have $500,000 or more to invest, click on the link below to get your free copy today!
Download Our Guide, “Should Headlines Influence Your Investment Decisions?”
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Trump Appoints Trade Hawk Robert Lighthizer to Oversee Negotiations – Chinese officials were somewhat taken by surprise when President Trump informed President Xi of the decision to have Robert Lighthizer oversee negotiations between the two nations, as prior to this weekend talks have mainly been handled by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Mr. Lighthizer is widely known as a trade hawk who has pressed for more tariffs on China, as a method for gaining leverage. Lighthizer has made a central issue out of the U.S. allegations that technology companies are forced to turn over sensitive technology as part of the cost of doing business, and he has criticized the Chinese government for failing to protect U.S. intellectual property.3
The Battle of the Cloud – the cloud business is one of the most rapidly growing areas in tech today, which is why two of the world’s major players are jockeying for market share in the wealthy and underserved European market. Amazon, which is the world’s biggest cloud-computing service provider, is facing off with China’s Alibaba in a race that could have implications ranging in the billions of dollars per year in annual revenue. Amazon Web Services is currently one of Amazon’s biggest profit generators, while the revenue at Alibaba’s cloud business more than doubled to over $2 billion in 2018. Alibaba has an uphill battle to compete with Amazon on the global stage, however – Alibaba’s ‘world-wide infrastructure-as-a-service’ market share rose to 4.6% in 2017, substantially below Amazon’s 52% share of the market.4
As Volatility Rears Its Ugly Head, We Say Stay Cool – volatility continues apace, with sharp down days feeling more common than up days. Headlines continue to point out that uncertainty over trade relations with China and rising interest rates have investors concerned, and a near flat yield curve could be signaling recession. All of these factors matter, of course, but they’re also widely known and discussed risks, which makes it difficult for us to believe they have true long-term pricing power. For now, and looking out over the next six months, we see continued global growth led by the U.S., with corporate earnings continuing to tick solidly higher over the next two quarters. Those are not conditions where a defensive posture is warranted, in our view.
Still it can be hard not to go on the defense, especially when all the headlines are pushing you to react with fear to recent volatility. But, don’t let this media noise sway your judgment and make you vulnerable to costly financial mistakes.
To help you stay steady and avoid costly mistakes, we are offering you our just-released guide, “Should Headlines Influence Your Investment Decisions?”5
In this guide, we discuss three behavioral tendencies that we believe investors should keep in mind if a headline makes you edgy or nervous.
If you have $500,000 or more to invest, click on the link below to get your free copy today!
Disclosure