In today’s Steady Investor, we look at key factors that we believe are currently impacting market recovery and what could be next for the markets such as:
Strong Quarter for U.S. Stocks Despite Brutal September – U.S. stocks posted their weakest September in almost 10 years, but the weak month did not equate to a weak quarter. The S&P 500 finished Q3 with a +8.5% gain for the quarter, while the Dow posted a +7.6% increase. The strong performance in Q3 followed a strong Q2, marking the best two-quarter performance for U.S. stocks since 2009. Both indexes are up over +26% since the end of March. Meanwhile, tech shares continue to be the darlings of the recovery, with the Nasdaq soaring +11% in Q3 to register a six-month gain of +45%. For the year, the tech-heavy index is up +24%.1
When 30% GDP Growth May Not be Enough – Q3 GDP growth estimates will start arriving in the coming weeks, and the U.S. economy is expected to have posted an annual growth rate of 30%, driven by strong consumer spending and stable income levels due to fiscal stimulus. While 30% GDP annual growth would restore a big piece of what was shed in the spring, the U.S. still has a long way to go in clawing back to pre-pandemic growth levels.2 A big question today is whether the strong momentum can hold for Q4, particularly with unemployment benefits drying up, the pandemic persisting with no vaccine likely in 2020, and no sure sign of additional stimulus.
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How to Navigate the Market with So Many Unknowns?
Our just-released October Market Strategy Report answers these questions and more. In this report, we check back-in with an investment category that has not received much attention lately – Emerging Markets. We will also give investors some ideas for allocating portfolios with 2021 in mind and take a look at why investors should resist the temptation to sell stocks because of election fears, no matter what the outcome.
Get answers to these questions and more and see what it could mean for economic recovery with our report. If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn more, click on the link below to get your free report today!
Download Our Just-Released October Market Strategy Report3
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Airlines Reach a Crossroads – Major airlines have been waiting eagerly for Congress and the White House to reach a deal regarding another round of stimulus, but they can wait no longer. American Airlines announced this week that they will move forward with 32,000 job cuts, while United Airlines said 13,400 jobs would be shed. Air travel has recovered from the lows reached in April, but remains 70% below the levels seen one year ago. The job losses apply some pressure to the government to arrive at a deal for more relief, and this week saw Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi bring a deal to Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. The Treasury Secretary indicated he will provide a counter-offer, a sign that the two sides are back at the negotiating table. In other job loss news, Walt Disney said it would cut its job force by 28,000.4
Is Consumer Spending Poised to be Weak in Q4? – When the federal government stepped in with helicopter money (IRS stimulus checks) and an additional $600/week in unemployment benefits, personal incomes rose to levels beyond where they stood in February (before the pandemic). With those stimulus measures expiring, however, personal income is softening – which may adversely impact consumer spending in Q4. Personal income fell -2.7% in August from a month earlier, and likely fell further in September given that the August drop was due entirely to a decline in unemployment benefits. Consumer spending continued to grow in Q3 even as income softened, with households spending about 1% more in August compared to July. But this gain in consumer spending was smaller than the 9% jump in May, 7% increase in June, and 2% increase in July.5 The pattern of declining gains in consumer spending is apparent going into Q4, and absent another round of stimulus, is likely to contribute to weaker Q4 GDP growth.
What to Expect from Q4? As we enter Q4, many investors are worried about the economic recovery and how the 2020 Presidential election could impact it.In our just-released October Market Strategy Report, we give investors some ideas for allocating portfolios with 2021 in mind and take a look at why investors should resist the temptation to sell stocks because of election fears, no matter what the outcome. We also check back in with an investment category that has not received much attention lately – Emerging Markets.
Get a deeper look into these topics and what they could mean for economic recovery with our report. If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn more, click on the link below to get your free report today!6
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