From Comey’s testimony to President Trump’s infrastructure bill and the state of employment in the U.S., this week was packed full of updates. Now the question is – how will these events affect the market? Get all the answers in this edition of Steady Investor’s Week…
Former F.B.I. Director James Comey Testifies – all of the attention this week focused on the testimony of former F.B.I. director James Comey, and we are not going to comment on that here. Our only message pursuant to this testimony is that investors should resist the temptation to draw any investment conclusions based on what we learned – the economic implications here, in our view, are very different from any political ones. We do not believe that anything said in the testimony will affect corporate earnings growth or our GDP, inflation, or interest rate outlook. It thusly does not change our equity forecast.
Inside the United States Employment Picture – when it comes to jobs growth, the U.S. economy has been delivering for several years now. In April, the jobless rate dropped to its lowest level in more than a decade, falling to 4.4%. But, a look inside the numbers suggests that the recent decline may not necessarily be worth cheering for. Usually one would associate a drop in unemployment with a rise in the number of employed Americans, but in April’s case the number of people who reported themselves as having a job actually fell by 233,000. The unemployment number fell because the number of people not in the workforce – either because they dropped out or because they were never actively looking for work – rose by 608,000. This discrepancy of less people working and less people actively looking for work, points to a slightly concerning aspect of the U.S. employment picture: labor participation rates are low. But that also presents an optimistic view, that there is a crop of people that could potentially re-enter the workforce, improving the rate even further. That could drive the unemployment rate down even further and contribute to improving spending and inflation numbers, which we believe would be good for equities.
More Global Growth – the World Bank issued a forecast this week that the global economy would expand 2.7% in 2017 and 2.9% in 2018, on the back of improving manufacturing, trade, and consumer data. Manufacturing has been a strong point particularly in Europe over the last few quarters, and global trade – in spite of U.S. rhetoric calling for more trade barriers – has reached all-time highs. Renegotiating trade deals will almost certainly take longer than many expect, so we would not expect any new playing field to emerge until at least 2018 or later.
Will Rising Oil Production Keep a Cap on Prices? – the U.S. Department of Energy believes that U.S. oil production will rise to 10 million barrels a day next year, which would mark the highest average annual production level, ever. The estimates are based on how oil drillers are likely to respond to loosening regulations under the new Administration and potential implications of the U.S.’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord. The revision is also likely tied to domestic oil drillers response to firmer crude oil prices supported by OPEC’s recent decision to limit production (and the fact that they may be sticking to their commitment).
How Far are We from an Infrastructure Bill? – President Trump visited Cincinnati, Ohio this week to bring focus to what the White House has labeled “Infrastructure Week.” The Trump Administration wants to formally launch an up-to $1 trillion initiative to invest in infrastructure investment across the country, though the hope is that taxpayers would not be responsible for footing the bill. Trump is proposing that the federal government allocate $200 billion towards projects over the span of 10 years, in hopes of incentivizing an additional $800 billion to be spend by states, municipalities and the private sector. Such initiatives, if realized, could be a substantial boon to the government spending portion of GDP while also supporting economic growth via the transportation sector.
From Comey’s testimony to the future of U.S. infrastructure, one thing is clear – there are still many questions left unanswered. With that, we are forced to wait and see how many of these stories pan out. Still it is easy for investors to get caught up in short-term predictions. But, while we cannot predict the short term, the right investment strategy can make an enormous difference over the long haul. To learn more about various strategies catering to different investment objectives download our Dean’s List of Investment Strategies. Our Dean’s List describes five of our investment strategies that are ranked in the top of their respective classes according to Morningstar. To get your copy, click on the link below:
Disclosure