In today’s Steady Investor, we explore three timely developments shaping today’s market and economy, and why they matter for investors, including:
- Tariffs return, markets stay focused
- Inflation gauge may ease
- Private equity faces liquidity challenges
Tariffs are Coming Back, But Markets Have Seen This Movie Before – After a relatively quiet period following the Supreme Court ruling, tariff policy is moving back into focus. The current 10% global tariff (which President Trump was able to implement for a period of 150 days) is set to expire this week, and replacement duties are in the works. The new approach is expected to rely more heavily on Section 301, which is generally viewed as more legally durable than the emergency authority the Supreme Court rejected earlier this year.For businesses, this creates another round of uncertainty, as the proposed new tariffs could cover as much as 99% of U.S. trade with rates of 10% for more than a dozen trading partners and 12.5% for over 40 others. This week, the administration also threatened a 50% tariff on certain Canadian goods beginning August 19, covering roughly $20 billion of exports to the U.S. This latter set of tariffs carries a lot of headline risk, but for context, it covers just a small slice of the more than $380 billion in Canadian goods exported to America last year.As we’ve argued many times before, we view tariffs as an economic negative, as the cost is ultimately borne by importers, businesses, and consumers. For markets, however, the key question is whether this is new information—and in our view, it isn’t. The expected tariff levels appear broadly similar to those in place before the Supreme Court ruling, when the average U.S. tariff rate was around 17%, versus about 11% today under the temporary measures. Markets handled that earlier regime reasonably well, and we do not anticipate much of a reaction once new measures are put in place.1
A Disciplined Approach to Today’s Market
Economic data, policy changes, and market headlines can create uncertainty, but they shouldn’t drive every investment decision. A disciplined investment process can help investors separate short-term noise from long-term opportunity.
Our complimentary guide, Three Steps to Overcoming Investment Behavioral Bias2 provides practical strategies to help you invest with greater confidence and objectivity. Inside, you’ll learn:
- The two main types of biases that affect investors: Cognitive and Emotional
- Specific examples of biased decision-making that can negatively impact your portfolio
- Three essential actions you can take to counteract the natural investor tendencies toward bias
If you have $500,000 or more to invest, simply click on the link below to get your copy today!
Download Zacks Guide, Three Steps to Overcoming Investment Behavioral Bias2
A Statistical Change Could Temper the Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge – The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge may soon look a little ‘better,’ but not because prices are suddenly falling.The Bureau of Economic Analysis is preparing changes to how it measures three categories inside the personal-consumption expenditures (PCE) price index: software, investment-management services, and legal services. Economists estimate the revisions could lower core PCE inflation by roughly 0.2% to 0.3% when the August data are released on September 30.Some may wonder if this is the agency’s attempt to shift the narrative on inflation, but the reality is that statistical changes happen fairly regularly. In this case, it is notable that PCE has been running hotter than CPI, with economists estimating Core PCE near 3.3% in June versus core CPI at 2.6%.3
Core PCE (blue line) Has Run Substantially Hotter than Core CPI (green line) Recently
Part of the gap appears tied to quirky measurement issues. For example, the current software index has captured some price pressure from hardware items affected by AI demand, while investment-management costs have risen partly because market gains lift fees tied to assets under management.Even after the revisions, core PCE would still be well above the Fed’s 2% target. But at a time when some Fed officials are debating whether higher rates may be needed, a slightly lower inflation reading could weaken the case for another hike.
Private Equity’s Liquidity Trade-Off is Becoming More Visible in Markets – Private equity’s liquidity ‘reality’ is becoming harder to ignore. According to PitchBook, the net asset value of U.S. private-equity assets stuck in funds at least 10 years old reached a record $348.5 billion at the end of 2025. That is 3.5 times the level from 2015 and more than 100 times the amount in 2005. These so-called “zombie funds” are typically no longer raising capital or buying new companies. Instead, they are holding remaining assets that managers have struggled to sell. The problem stems partly from timing. Many funds bought companies during the 2020–2021 boom, when interest rates were near zero and valuations were high. Today, higher borrowing costs have made buyers less willing to pay those peak prices.The backlog may continue to grow. Funds that are seven to nine years old now hold an estimated $512.7 billion in net asset value, more than double the 2015 level. More broadly, Preqin estimates that unsold North American private-equity portfolio companies totaled $3.91 trillion as of September 2025, representing 74% of all North American private-equity assets on balance sheets. For investors, it’s a reminder that private investments can offer access to different opportunities, but they also come with less transparency, less liquidity, and a greater reliance on managers’ ability to sell assets at attractive prices.Public markets, by contrast, offer daily liquidity and transparent pricing.4
The Hidden Risk Behind Every Investment Decision – Markets can be unpredictable, but one of the biggest challenges investors face is staying disciplined when emotions take over. Headlines, market volatility, and personal biases can all influence investment decisions in ways that aren’t always obvious.
To help you recognize these common pitfalls, I’m offering our guide, Three Steps to Overcoming Investment Behavioral Bias6. Inside, you’ll learn:
- The two main types of biases that affect investors: Cognitive and Emotional
- Specific examples of biased decision-making that can negatively impact your portfolio
- Three essential actions you can take to counteract the natural investor tendencies toward bias
- And more…
If you have $500,000 or more to invest and are ready to learn more, click on the link below to get your copy today!
Disclosure
2 Zacks Investment Management reserves the right to amend the terms or rescind the free Three Steps to Overcoming Investment Behavioral Bias offer at any time and for any reason at its discretion.
3 Wall Street Journal. July 19, 2026. https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/pce-inflation-data-updates-ca7bfd61?mod=economy_lead_pos3
4 Fred Economic Data. June 25, 2026. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE
5 Wall Street Journal. July 21, 2026. https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/private-equity-assets-stuck-in-zombie-funds-are-at-a-record-high-4dbd01be?mod=hp_lead_pos5
6 Zacks Investment Management reserves the right to amend the terms or rescind the free Three Steps to Overcoming Investment Behavioral Bias offer at any time and for any reason at its discretion.
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