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August 15th, 2023

Unemployment Rate Falls, Core Inflation Cooled In July, Gas Prices May Head Up

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In this week’s issue of Steady Investor, we explore current events impacting the market, such as:

• The fall in the unemployment rate
• Core inflation cools in July
• Possible higher gas prices soon

The Unemployment Rate Falls, But So Does the Pace of Hiring – The Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by 187,000 in July, up from a revised 185,000 new hires in June. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. By most accounts, the U.S. jobs market remains in solid shape, but these recent figures signal a cooling that may come as welcome news to the Federal Reserve. Though 187,000 new hires in July signals the labor market remains tight, it’s meaningful to note that this pace is a marked step down from the 399,000 jobs/month posted in 2022 and the 287,000 jobs/month pace of the first five months of 2023. While private sector pay rose 4.4% in July – which is materially higher than the pace needed to achieve 2% inflation – the takeaway from this jobs report is that the labor market appears to be finding a balance of not being too hot nor too cold. In other words, the Fed may interpret recent data in the jobs market as being on a steady path to a soft landing.1

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Core Inflation Cools Slightly in July – Readers may sometimes get confused by the myriad inflation measures cited in the media. CPI, the core PCE price index, trimmed-mean CPI, PPI, and so on. The Atlanta Federal Reserve tracks nine different inflation measures, with each one often sending different messages about underlying inflation trends. To simplify matters and to get at the root of what influences the Fed and interest rate policy, readers should focus on just two inflation measures: core CPI and the core PCE price index. The Fed cares more about core prices because they tend to be better predictors of future inflation trends. The Labor Department reported on Thursday that core CPI rose by 4.7% year-over-year in July, which marked a slight cooling from June’s 4.8% annual rate. Month-over-month data offered a similar takeaway of improving conditions, with core CPI rising 0.2% from June to July. Another way of looking at core inflation is by tracking the 3-month annualized rate, which in July came in at 3.1% – the lowest print in two years.3

Why Americans Could See Higher Prices at the Pump in the Coming Weeks – Many readers have likely noticed gas prices ticking higher lately. Higher oil prices are to blame. In the past six weeks, benchmark crude oil prices have risen over 21%, following decisions by Saudi Arabia and Russia to cut production in a targeted effort to mitigate rising global supply levels. Supply and demand of course impact the price of crude, and the demand side of the equation has also had an impact – investors have grown more optimistic about a soft landing in the U.S., which implies better-than-expected demand for oil. When oil prices are rising and are expected to rise further, the price of gas tends to follow. But other factors are affecting the price at the pump – summer heat makes refining oil into gas more costly, since it slows the cooling process; and a looming hurricane season has many oil futures traders betting that refineries could take a hit to production later this summer and fall, which also puts upward pressure on prices.4

Overcoming Current Market Volatility – It is impossible to avoid volatility, but there are ways investors can minimize the worst impacts of a volatile market.

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• 3 best practices to successfully manage periods of market volatility
• 3 most common mistakes investors make, and why they are so damaging to your long-term investing goals
• Historical data that supports our conclusions and underscores the recommendations we propose

If you have $500,000 or more to invest, get our free guide today!

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Disclosure

1 Wall Street Journal. August 4, 2023. https://www.wsj.com/articles/jobs-report-july-today-unemployment-economy-d9af32f3?mod=economy_more_pos5

2 Zacks Investment Management reserves the right to amend the terms or rescind our free The Do’s and Don’ts of Stock Market Volatility offer at any time and for any reason at its discretion.

3 Wall Street Journal. August 10, 2023. https://www.wsj.com/articles/consumer-price-index-report-july-inflation-a4a0a670?mod=hp_lead_pos1

4 Wall Street Journal. August 7, 2023. https://www.wsj.com/articles/gas-prices-inflation-oil-crude-diesel-eec0645f?mod=djemRTE_h

5 Zacks Investment Management reserves the right to amend the terms or rescind our free The Do’s and Don’ts of Stock Market Volatility offer at any time and for any reason at its discretion.

DISCLOSURE

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss.

Zacks Investment Management, Inc. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Zacks Investment Research. Zacks Investment Management is an independent Registered Investment Advisory firm and acts as an investment manager for individuals and institutions. Zacks Investment Research is a provider of earnings data and other financial data to institutions and to individuals.

This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. Do not act or rely upon the information and advice given in this publication without seeking the services of competent and professional legal, tax, or accounting counsel. Publication and distribution of this article is not intended to create, and the information contained herein does not constitute, an attorney-client relationship. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment or strategy is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole.

Any projections, targets, or estimates in this report are forward looking statements and are based on the firm’s research, analysis, and assumptions. Due to rapidly changing market conditions and the complexity of investment decisions, supplemental information and other sources may be required to make informed investment decisions based on your individual investment objectives and suitability specifications. All expressions of opinions are subject to change without notice. Clients should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any security or investment strategy discussed in this presentation.

Certain economic and market information contained herein has been obtained from published sources prepared by other parties. Zacks Investment Management does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information. Further, no third party has assumed responsibility for independently verifying the information contained herein and accordingly no such persons make any representations with respect to the accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of the information provided herein. Unless otherwise indicated, market analysis and conclusions are based upon opinions or assumptions that Zacks Investment Management considers to be reasonable. Any investment inherently involves a high degree of risk, beyond any specific risks discussed herein.

The S&P 500 Index is a well-known, unmanaged index of the prices of 500 large-company common stocks, mainly blue-chip stocks, selected by Standard & Poor’s. The S&P 500 Index assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect advisory fees. The volatility of the benchmark may be materially different from the individual performance obtained by a specific investor. An investor cannot invest directly in an index.
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