In this issue of Steady Investor, we highlight the three key themes shaping investor decisions currently:
Inside the UAE’s Bombshell Announcement That It’s Leaving OPEC – Every reader knows how influential the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has been in global oil markets for decades. An announcement this week indicates that influence may be waning. The United Arab Emirates’ announced a decision to withdraw from OPEC, a move motivated by long-term strategy but also economic forces. OPEC production quotas have limited the UAE’s ability to fully utilize its growing capacity, which is now near 5 million barrels per day. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively constrained by the conflict with Iran, the UAE sees export flexibility and output autonomy in its best interests. At the same time, the war has accelerated a realignment in regional security, with the UAE deepening cooperation with Israel and the U.S. while tensions with neighboring Gulf states have widened. All told, what we think we’re seeing here is a final blow to OPEC’s ability to act as a “swing producer” in global energy markets. The group had already seen influence gradually decline as production from countries like the United States, Canada, and Brazil has expanded, and the UAE’s departure—particularly as one of the few members with meaningful spare capacity—reinforces this trend. For investors, the UAE’s decision should serve more as a reminder than a major event. The global oil market has already become more decentralized, and price dynamics are increasingly shaped by a broader set of producers and geopolitical forces, not a single coordinated bloc (OPEC).1
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Markets have continued to push higher, even as headlines stay noisy and expectations shift.
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The U.S. Economy Grew Modestly but Steadily in Q1 2026 – According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s “advance” estimate, U.S. economic growth picked up to a 2.0% annualized pace in the first quarter. While this headline figure came in slightly below expectations, the underlying drivers tell a more constructive story.Business investment (see story below) was the clear standout. Spending surged at a 10.4% annual rate, the strongest in nearly three years, fueled largely by continued outlays tied to artificial intelligence—particularly in equipment and intellectual property. Strong business spending made up for softening consumer spending, which moderated to a 1.6% pace. Some of that weakness likely reflects temporary pressures, including higher fuel costs and lingering winter disruptions, rather than a fundamental pullback. But we’ll want to keep monitoring this data. A broader measure of underlying demand, final sales to private domestic purchasers, accelerated to 2.5%, which tells us that core economic momentum improved beneath the surface. A key positive, in our view, is that growth for the quarter was driven by business investment rather than consumption alone, which tends to be a more durable foundation for expansion.3
Business Investment in the U.S. Surges in March, A Good Sign of Underlying Strength – U.S. business investment showed renewed strength in March, offering a timely reminder that one of the economy’s key growth engine remains intact. Core capital goods orders, which serves as a useful proxy for business equipment spending, rose 3.3% during the month. That marks the largest increase since mid-2020, building on an upwardly revised 1.6% gain in February. Shipments, which feed directly into GDP calculations, also remained firm, extending a steady upward trend.The gains were broad-based, with strength across communications equipment, electrical hardware, and motor vehicles, alongside continued momentum tied to artificial intelligence-related spending. Despite elevated geopolitical uncertainty and rising input costs tied to the Iran conflict, businesses appear to be following through on investment plans that had been delayed amid earlier policy uncertainty.For investors, it’s important to remember that orders placed today translate into production, hiring, and economic activity in the months ahead. In that context, March’s data suggest expansion is continuing, not stalling.This may also help explain why equities have been able to climb despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and elevated oil prices.4
Build a Retirement Portfolio That Doesn’t Chase the Noise – Markets will always give you something to react to. The advantage comes from knowing when not to.
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