The tulips have bloomed and warmer temperatures are here,
which means it’s time for the “Sell in May and go away” punditry to flood the
financial news media. Don’t buy into it.
Many readers are likely familiar with the ‘Sell in May’
adage, which says that investors should ditch stocks at the end of April, wait
on the sidelines until Halloween or some arbitrary date in the fall, and then
reinvest in time for the Santa Claus late-year rally. But it’s all just
hocus-pocus, in my view.
Data going back to 1925 shows that in the six months between
May and the end of October, the S&P 500 has gone up in 69 out of 95 years –
which means stocks went up 73% of the time. ‘Sell in May’ advocates still
somehow manage to direct focus on the 27% of down years. The broader point is
often missed: in the 73% of up years, the average annual return is +4.3%. If
investors perpetually miss this upside (even if the upside is fairly modest),
it can have major implications on long-term returns.
__________________________________________________________________________
Don’t Play into the Media and Headlines – Focus on the Facts and Data!
If the
‘Sell in May’ adage can teach investors anything, it is that it is more
important to focus on key data points instead of trending headlines. The key to
long-term financial success is not to give in to short-term, hasty decisions!
It’s better to prepare your investments for the future instead of emotionally
investing based on financial news and headlines.
To help
you stay focused on key data points and fundamentals that could impact your
investments in the long term, I am offering all readers an exclusive look at
our May & June Stock Market Outlook Report. This report contains some of
our key forecasts to consider such as:
- Zacks
rank S&P 500 sector picks
- Zacks
May and June view on equity markets
- What
produces 2021 optimism?
- Zacks
forecasts for the remainder of the year
- Zacks
ranks industry tables
- Sell-side
and buy-side consensus
- And
much more
If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn more about these forecasts, click on the link below to get your free report today!
IT’S FREE. Download the Just-Released May & June 2021 Stock Market Outlook1
__________________________________________________________________________
It is probably worth adding that the ‘Sell in May’ strategy
has not worked really at all in the last 10 years. The table below shows this
clearly:
Over the Last 10 Years, “Sell in May” Has Basically Never
Worked2
|
Year
|
“Sell in May” S&P 500 Return
|
|
2011
|
-8.1%
|
|
2012
|
+1.0%
|
|
2013
|
+10%
|
|
2014
|
+7.1%
|
|
2015
|
-0.3%
|
|
2016
|
+2.9%
|
|
2017
|
+8.0%
|
|
2018
|
+2.4%
|
|
2019
|
+3.1%
|
|
2020
|
+12.3%
|
|
2021
|
?
|
|
Average
|
+3.8%
|
|
% Higher
|
80%
|
To be fair, ‘Sell in May’ in the context of 2021 makes for
an interesting case. Stocks are at all-time highs, and many would say the
market is looking frothy. I tend to agree that certain areas of the market are
overvalued, which I think argues for an
active, research-driven approach like we do here at Zacks Investment Management.
But what I don’t agree with is the perception that a frothy market makes the
case for market timing, especially amid economic expansion. This type of
thinking is ripe for mistake-making, in my view.
Because at the end of the day, ‘Sell in May and Go Away’ is
a market-timing strategy dressed up as a seasonal, statistics-driven investment
approach. Most readers know how I feel about market timing, especially for
investors with long-term goals of growth. As I write in my book The Little Book of Stock Market Profits,
“Over the years I have yet to find a successful investor who obtained his or her
returns through market timing…Active investment strategies can be developed that
outperform the market over time – but engaging in behavior that borders on day-trading,
because of what day is on the calendar, is ill-advised.” The same applies
today, in my view.
Bottom Line for
Investors
I have seen reputable pundits and even financial
institutions still leaning into the ‘Sell in May’ adage and even noticed that
the statistic has spilled over to Europe. One strategist noted that over the
past 15 years, returns in Europe have been negative in June 80% of the time.
Again, this is all hocus pocus and cherry-picking, to me.3
As prudent, long-term investors, we should not try to time
the market by season or any arbitrary date on the calendar. Stocks do not
follow calendars, and neither should long-term equity investors.
If you
are uncertain about the next financial steps to take, try preparing your
investments for the long-term instead of making short-term, hasty decisions!
This requires maintaining a diversified portfolio and sticking to key data
points and economic indicators that could positively impact your investments in
the future.
To help you do this, I am offering all readers our Just-Released May & June 2021 Stock Market Outlook Report.
This report looks at several factors that are producing optimism right now and contains some of our key forecasts to consider such as: If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn more about these forecasts, click on the link below to get your free report today!
Disclosure
1 Zacks Investment Management reserves the right to amend the terms or rescind the free Stock Market Outlook offer at any time and for any reason at its discretion.
2 Market Watch. May 1, 2021. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-stocks-have-risen-to-all-time-highs-this-year-should-you-sell-in-may-and-go-away-11619818845
3 Market Watch. May 1, 2021. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-stocks-have-risen-to-all-time-highs-this-year-should-you-sell-in-may-and-go-away-11619818845
4 Zacks Investment Management reserves the right to amend the terms or rescind the free Stock Market Outlook offer at any time and for any reason at its discretion.
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