Private Client Group

February 26th, 2025

Cold Weather Pushes Gas Prices Up, 2025 Fed Policy, UK And Japan News

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Navigating today’s market requires clarity and focus. In this week’s Steady Investor, we break down three key themes shaping the investment landscape—so you can make decisions with confidence:

Gas Prices are Pressured Higher by Colder Temperatures – If you’re reading this and it’s colder than usual where you live, you’re not alone. In many regions across the U.S., temperatures have plunged as much as 50 degrees lower than averages for this time of year. That means natural gas has been withdrawn at a faster-than-normal rate from underground storage, perhaps as much as three times the amount from the same period a year ago. As a result, the U.S.’s gas reserves are projected to be 20% lower than they were on the same date last year. The supply and demand dynamics have been pushing prices higher—on Wednesday, front-month natural gas futures surged past the critical $4 per million British thermal units mark, reaching their highest level since 2022—an astonishing 170% increase over the past year. Futures contracts for delivery in January of next year have already climbed past $5. Consumers may not have to worry about the possibility of much higher prices this winter or next, however. The Biden administration’s ban on new export terminals has been lifted, and it seems possible that sanctions on Russian gas could be eased sometime this year. An influx of Russian gas would add to global supply, which would reduce price pressures even if demand is higher-than-average.1

Navigate Tax Season with Confidence!

Tax season can be complex, whether you’re filing on your own or with a professional. Questions about updated rules, deductions, and limits are inevitable.

That’s why we’re offering our 2025 Tax Reference Guide1—a precise and user-friendly resource designed to address the most common tax concerns.

This guide provides:

If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to make informed financial decisions this tax season, click the link below to get your free copy:

Download the 2025 Tax Reference Guide2

What the Recently Released Fed Minutes Tell Us About Monetary Policy in 2025 – The just-released Fed minutes from the January meeting offered some clues about the path of short-term interest rates in 2025. Overall, Fed officials emphasized the need for more substantial progress toward the 2% inflation target before considering further cuts. This goal has been complicated by recent inflation data, which has been slightly hotter-than-expected and remains closer to 3% than 2%. The Fed has also expressed caution about the potential implications of tariff policy, especially given that many businesses have indicated plans to pass increased costs from tariffs onto consumers, potentially exacerbating inflation risks. The Fed thus remains in “wait-and-see” mode, suggesting that any additional rate cuts would require clear evidence of inflation moving toward the target or signs of labor market weakening. Two rate cuts are projected in 2025, but we do not see any of those cuts coming in the first quarter, as there are very few signs that the fed funds rate of 4.25% to 4.5% is serving as a headwind to economic growth.3

Two Big Global Economic Stories from the Week – Economic data from the UK and Japan out this week is worth highlighting. In January, the United Kingdom’s inflation rate rose to 3%, the highest in ten months, surpassing analysts’ expectations of 2.8%. This surge was driven by increased costs in transportation, food, and non-alcoholic beverages, as well as a significant rise in private school fees due to new VAT regulations. The unexpected inflation spike complicates the Bank of England’s monetary policy, as it aims to balance controlling inflation with supporting economic growth. The central bank had previously lowered interest rates to 4.5% in response to sluggish economic performance and potential global trade challenges. However, the persistent inflationary pressures may limit its ability to implement further rate cuts in the near term. Further overseas in Japan, it was reported that the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.8%, in Q4 2024, surpassing expectations. Japan’s growth came with a caveat, which was that it was primarily driven by a boost to exports and government spending. More durable economic growth would include a strong showing from Japanese consumers, but wage growth has not exceeded the inflation rate by very much. Nevertheless, the stronger-than-anticipated performance suggests resilience in the face of global economic challenges.4

Prepare for Tax Season with Zacks 2025 Tax Reference Guide – This time of year, taxes are top of mind for many investors. To make navigating tax season easier, we’re offering our free 2025 Tax Reference Guide5—a trusted resource designed to answer your most pressing questions and help you plan with confidence. Inside, you’ll find:

If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn more, click on the link below to get your free copy:

Disclosure

1 Oil Prices. February 21, 2025. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Natural-Gas-Prices-Surge-As-Arctic-Blast-Fuels-Demand.html

2 ZIM may amend or rescind the free guide “2025 Tax Reference Guide” for any reason and at ZIM’s discretion.
3 Wall Street Journal. February 19, 2025. https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-minutes-show-inflation-jitters-cast-a-chill-over-rate-cuts-fddd5707?mod=economy_lead_pos1

4 Wall Street Journal. 2025. https://www.wsj.com/economy/japan-economy-grew-faster-than-expected-in-final-quarter-of-2024-f337629a?mod=economy_more_article_pos3
5 ZIM may amend or rescind the free guide “2025 Tax Reference Guide” for any reason and at ZIM’s discretion.
DISCLOSURE

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss.

Zacks Investment Management, Inc. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Zacks Investment Research. Zacks Investment Management is an independent Registered Investment Advisory firm and acts as an investment manager for individuals and institutions. Zacks Investment Research is a provider of earnings data and other financial data to institutions and to individuals.

This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. Do not act or rely upon the information and advice given in this publication without seeking the services of competent and professional legal, tax, or accounting counsel. Publication and distribution of this article is not intended to create, and the information contained herein does not constitute, an attorney-client relationship. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment or strategy is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole.

Any projections, targets, or estimates in this report are forward looking statements and are based on the firm’s research, analysis, and assumptions. Due to rapidly changing market conditions and the complexity of investment decisions, supplemental information and other sources may be required to make informed investment decisions based on your individual investment objectives and suitability specifications. All expressions of opinions are subject to change without notice. Clients should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any security or investment strategy discussed in this presentation.

Certain economic and market information contained herein has been obtained from published sources prepared by other parties. Zacks Investment Management does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information. Further, no third party has assumed responsibility for independently verifying the information contained herein and accordingly no such persons make any representations with respect to the accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of the information provided herein. Unless otherwise indicated, market analysis and conclusions are based upon opinions or assumptions that Zacks Investment Management considers to be reasonable. Any investment inherently involves a high degree of risk, beyond any specific risks discussed herein.

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