Private Client Group

March 4th, 2025

Consumer Spending Surges, Business Growth Cools, Housing Slows

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Navigating this week’s market requires clarity and focus. In this week’s Steady Investor, we break down three key themes shaping the investment landscape—so you can stay informed and make confident decisions:

• U.S. consumer spending remains strong, but becoming more uneven
• U.S. business sector sees slight deceleration in January
• A bright spot in the U.S. housing market shows signs of dimming

U.S. Consumer Spending is Strong, But Increasingly Uneven – When analyzing U.S. macroeconomic data, it is fair to say that consumer spending is strong. But this broad view deserves a closer look, as it reveals some bifurcation in the marketplace. As of the third quarter of 2024, the top 10% of earners—households earning approximately $250,000 or more annually—accounted for a record 49.7% of all consumer expenditures, a significant rise from about 36% in 1989. Between September 2023 and September 2024, this wealth cohort—bolstered by rising equity and housing prices—saw spending surge by 12%, while middle and working-class households experienced a decline in expenditures during the same period. Over the past four years, middle- and lower-income households have seen their spending increase by only 25%, barely outpacing the 21% rise in prices during that time. This disparity highlights factors worth monitoring in the coming year(s). A tax cut with deregulation and rising equity prices could fuel this spending even further, pulling economic growth higher as well. But a downturn affecting the financial confidence of these top earners could significantly impact overall economic stability, given their outsized role in driving consumption. Among the risks to watch out for: rising layoffs in white-collar industries, a stock market decline, or a drop in real estate values.1

Is Your Retirement at Risk?

Market uncertainty is rising, and keeping cash won’t protect your future. With volatility and fluctuating interest rates, relying on the wrong investments could leave you short on income.

A portfolio focused on dividend-paying stocks could provide more stability. Get our guide,
Retirement’s Uphill Battle: Generating Income in a Low Interest Rate Environment2, to learn how to secure your cash flow. Topics covered include:

• The downsides of other income-producing options, such as annuities and closed-end funds (CEFs)
• How dividend stocks can help reduce downside volatility
• The importance of choosing the right corporate bonds and dividend stocks
• The tax advantages of dividend stocks
• Plus, many more reasons this strategy can help you generate income in retirement

If you have $500,000 or more to invest, click the link below to get our free guide today!

Retirement’s Uphill Battle: Generating Income in a Low-Interest Rate Environment.2

The U.S. Business Sector Experiences Slight Deceleration in January – The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its nonmanufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) decreased to 52.8 from December’s 54.0, indicating continued growth in the U.S. services sector—but at a more subdued pace. Monitoring service sector activity is crucial, as it constitutes over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. What’s more, the slowdown is attributed to softened demand, as evidenced by the new orders sub-index falling to 51.3 from 54.4 in the previous month. Cooling in the services sector may aid in tempering inflation, but it runs counter to the goal of accelerating economic growth. The good news—at least for now—is that a big part of the drag on services sector activity came from sinking sentiment, which could easily prove temporary. As such, it is too early to label one PMI print as a trend in the wrong direction, but this data set will be worth monitoring in the coming months. Uncertainties tied to ongoing trade policies and potential geopolitical tensions could impact activity.3

A Bright Spot in the U.S. Housing Market Shows Signs of Dimming – Over the past year or so, existing home sales have remained sluggish while the market for new homes has seen stronger activity. January may have thrown this strength into question. New single-family home sales declined by 10.5% from December, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000 units. This figure represents a 1.1% decrease compared to January 2024. Several factors contributed to this decline. Persistently high mortgage rates, averaging around 6.9%, have significantly impacted affordability, deterring potential buyers. The median sales price for new homes also keeps going up—in January, prices rose by 3.7% year-over-year to $446,300, marking the highest median price since October 2022. The average sales price was $510,000. Finally, severe winter weather conditions in regions like the Northeast and Midwest further suppressed sales activities. These numbers are largely discouraging, but they likely don’t signal a major warning for the overall U.S. economy. Housing’s contribution to U.S. GDP is about 15%, with just 4% coming from residential fixed investment (RFI).4

Boost Your Retirement with Dividend Stocks – In today’s uncertain market, relying on cash won’t safeguard your retirement. Focus on stocks with strong earnings and a history of dividend growth to potentially generate stable income.

We recommend downloading our guide, “Retirement’s Uphill Battle: Generating Income in a Low Interest Rate Environment5”, to dive into topics like:

• The downsides of other income-producing options, such as annuities and closed-end funds (CEFs)
• How dividend stocks can help reduce downside volatility
• The importance of choosing the right corporate bonds and dividend stocks
• The tax advantages of dividend stocks
• Plus, many more reasons this strategy can help you generate income in retirement

If you have $500,000 or more to invest, click on the link below to get our free guide today!

Disclosure

1 Wall Street Journal. February 23, 2025. https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/us-economy-strength-rich-spending-2c34a571?st=zamChP&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

2 Zacks Investment Management reserves the right to amend the terms or rescind the free Retirement’s Uphill Battle: Generating Income in a Low-Interest Rate Environment offer at any time and for any reason at its discretion.

3 Bloomberg, 2025. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-business-activity-moderates-as-the-service-sector-cools/ar-AA1zwHY1

4 Wall Street Journal. February 26, 2025. https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/u-s-new-home-sales-slump-at-start-of-2025-5555174c?st=hDyUfD&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

5 Zacks Investment Management reserves the right to amend the terms or rescind the free Retirement’s Uphill Battle: Generating Income in a Low-Interest Rate Environment offer at any time and for any reason at its discretion.

DISCLOSURE

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss.

Zacks Investment Management, Inc. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Zacks Investment Research. Zacks Investment Management is an independent Registered Investment Advisory firm and acts as an investment manager for individuals and institutions. Zacks Investment Research is a provider of earnings data and other financial data to institutions and to individuals.

This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. Do not act or rely upon the information and advice given in this publication without seeking the services of competent and professional legal, tax, or accounting counsel. Publication and distribution of this article is not intended to create, and the information contained herein does not constitute, an attorney-client relationship. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment or strategy is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole.

Any projections, targets, or estimates in this report are forward looking statements and are based on the firm’s research, analysis, and assumptions. Due to rapidly changing market conditions and the complexity of investment decisions, supplemental information and other sources may be required to make informed investment decisions based on your individual investment objectives and suitability specifications. All expressions of opinions are subject to change without notice. Clients should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any security or investment strategy discussed in this presentation.

Certain economic and market information contained herein has been obtained from published sources prepared by other parties. Zacks Investment Management does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information. Further, no third party has assumed responsibility for independently verifying the information contained herein and accordingly no such persons make any representations with respect to the accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of the information provided herein. Unless otherwise indicated, market analysis and conclusions are based upon opinions or assumptions that Zacks Investment Management considers to be reasonable. Any investment inherently involves a high degree of risk, beyond any specific risks discussed herein.

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Questions posed are for demonstrative and informational purposes only and may not reflect the views of current clients or any one individual.
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