In this edition of Steady Investor, we highlight three key trends that could impact your investments:
New Jobs Data May Seal the Deal for September Rate Cut – When the Labor Department releases jobs data or the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases GDP data, the expectation is that the figures will eventually be revised. That’s what we saw this week. In a report released Wednesday, the Labor Department suggested it may have overstated job gains by 818,000 (in the 12 months through March). Whereas it was previously assumed that the U.S. economy had added close to 250,000 jobs per month in that period, the figure could potentially be closer to 175,000. The key word here, however, is potentially. Looking at the previous four years’ worth of data, preliminary estimates can also be revised upward, as has been the case historically. Given the size of the current estimate revision, we might reasonably expect that the Labor Department over-estimated jobs growth but by a few hundred thousand jobs, not necessarily close to a million. Regardless, this news likely weighs heavily in the minds of Fed officials, who have been wary of weakening patterns in the labor market. Indeed, we know now from minutes released during the July 30-31 meeting that “several” of the nineteen Fed officials saw a case for cutting rates by a quarter percentage point at that meeting, and that the “vast majority” of officials agreed that it would likely be appropriate to cut in September. This latest Labor Department revision may make the monetary easing even more likely.1
Insights to Navigate Peak Interest Rates
Since 2022, the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes have driven interest rates from near zero to over 5%. Although the hikes paused in July 2023, expected rate cuts have yet to come.
With the era of ‘peak interest rates’ upon us, many investors wonder: What does this mean for my portfolio? How should I adapt to protect and grow my investments?
Our free guide, How Investors Should Prepare for ‘Peak Interest Rates’2, offers crucial insights to help you navigate these uncertain times with confidence. We’ll explore what peak interest means for investors, including:
If you have $500,000 or more, click the link below to download your free copy!
Get Our FREE Guide: How Investors Should Prepare for ‘Peak Interest Rates’2
Natural Gas Prices Reach Multi-Decade Lows – The U.S. is experiencing one of the hottest summers on record, which has been driving higher power demand via increased usage of air conditioning. Normally, rising power demand would also increase demand for natural gas, pushing up prices. Not this summer. The reason is that the U.S. currently has a glut of natural gas, with the volume of natural gas in domestic storage facilities 13% above the five-year average for the summer months. The glut comes on the heels of record daily gas production, which the U.S. reached last December with 105 billion cubic feet of daily output. Because the U.S. experienced a mild winter, a sizable portion of this record production went to storage, which utilities are still working through. Natural gas producers have indicated plans of dialing back output to put upward pressure on prices, but the fact remains that there is still enough gas stockpiled to last the U.S. through next winter—even if it’s colder than average. All told, natural gas prices have not been this low since the 1990s (excluding the Covid-19 lockdowns), benefiting U.S. households but hurting producers.3
An Increasing Number of Homes in the U.S. are Valued Over $1 Million – In previous Steady Investor columns, we’ve written about record existing home prices in the U.S. (median home prices). In the last reading, the median home sales price was up 4% year-over-year, to $442,525. But there’s been another trend at the higher end of the market—a record number of homes valued over $1 million. According to data from Redfin, 8.5% of homes in the U.S. have estimated values of $1 million or more, up from 7.6% in June of 2023 and more than double the 4% recorded before the pandemic. A major factor driving prices up at the higher end of the market is the same force increasing prices closer to the median: low inventory. The inventory of homes for sale is still about 30% below pre-pandemic levels, as high interest rates have discouraged sellers from leaving their homes and has also raised construction costs.4
Preparing for Peak Interest Rates – With peak interest rates upon us and the Fed’s September meeting approaching, investors face new challenges and are left wondering if the Fed will start lowering rates
To navigate this environment of high interest rates, we recommend downloading our free guide, How Investors Should Prepare for ‘Peak Interest Rates’5, which offers essential strategies, like:
If you have $500,000 or more, click the link below to download your guide and stay ahead of market changes!
Disclosure