Will H. from Little Rock, AR asks: Hello Mitch, that was quite a week! Lost in all the election coverage was the Fed cutting rates again. I have two questions for you this morning: do you think more rate cuts are coming next year even with the new economic policy, and will mortgage rates follow? My wife and I bought a house about a year and a half ago, and I’d love the opportunity to refinance. Thanks for your time.
Mitch’s Response:
Thanks for sending in your questions, Will. I’ll answer each one in turn.
First, the rate cut. The Federal Reserve actually pushed back their November meeting to Wednesday-Thursday, so it would not fall on election day. That’s when we learned of the decision to cut the benchmark fed funds rate by another 25 basis points, to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%. This move was widely expected, which is probably another reason it didn’t make big news.1
Regarding future rate cuts, if we just look at the projections released after the Fed’s September meeting, we might reasonably expect another 100 to 125 basis points of cuts at future meetings, which could mean another 25-basis-point cut in December. I think the December rate cut will proceed as planned. But looking ahead to next year, I think Fed policy and the path of interest rates are more uncertain.
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Trump’s victory with a “red sweep” of the Senate and the House will almost certainly change the direction of economic policy in a meaningful way. This could mean significant changes to tax policy, tariffs, and the regulatory environment. It is way too early to forecast how these potential changes will impact inflation, the jobs market, and economic growth. But the fact that change is likely in the offing could make the future path of interest rates not so straightforward. If across-the-board tariffs and tax cuts spur accelerating inflation and economic growth at once, for instance, it is not likely the Fed would want to be easing policy in that scenario.
As for mortgage rates, it’s important to remember that the Federal Reserve is not exerting influence over the long end of the interest rate curve when they set the benchmark fed funds rate. Mortgage rates are more influenced by Treasury yields, which are influenced by future expectations for growth and inflation. If the outlook from here is for strong economic growth and more inflationary pressure because of growth, tariffs, and/or some other factor, then I think the outlook for long duration Treasury bonds—and buy extension mortgage rates—will remain elevated. There’s not really a scenario where economic growth accelerates and Treasury bond yields come down meaningfully. In my opinion, you’ll likely need to wait until an economic recession before mortgage rates come down to levels that are attractive for a refinance.
During the waiting process, preparing for market uncertainty is essential. And to prepare you for any outcome, I’m offering our guide, ‘The Do’s and Don’ts of Stock Market Volatility3., which provides recommendations, based on 30 years of expertise, and explores:
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Disclosure
1 Wall Street Journal. November 8, 2024. https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/the-feds-next-moves-are-now-anyones-guess-c5c2a5d8?mod=economy_feat1_central-banking_pos1
2 Zacks Investment Management reserves the right to amend the terms or rescind our free The Do’s and Don’ts of Stock Market Volatility offer at any time and for any reason at its discretion.
3 Zacks Investment Management reserves the right to amend the terms or rescind our free The Do’s and Don’ts of Stock Market Volatility offer at any time and for any reason at its discretion.
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