Private Client Group

May 12th, 2025

GDP Declines But Underlying Data Is Still Solid, All-Time High Trade Deficit, China Services Slip

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In this edition of The Steady Investor, we explore the forces investors should be watching closely—such as:

What to Make of the Recent U.S. GDP and Jobs Reports – A slew of economic data hit the tape last week, and much of it suggested that the U.S. economy held up just fine in the first quarter. The U.S. labor market posted solid gains in April, with employers adding 177,000 jobs. This marks a continuation of stable hiring momentum, with sectors such as health care, transportation, and financial activities leading the way. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. While the jobs market appeared to be holding firm, the U.S. economy experienced a -0.3% annualized contraction in the first quarter, falling short of expectations for a 0.4% increase. The decline was not attributable to a collapse in consumer demand, however, as it was primarily driven by a significant 41.3% annualized rise in imports, which subtracted 5.0 percentage points from the headline GDP figure. The surge in imports was largely driven by businesses accelerating purchases ahead of anticipated tariffs. Government spending also contributed to the GDP decline, reducing growth by 0.25 percentage points. Importantly, however, key private sector components demonstrated resilience. Consumer spending, business investment, and residential investment collectively grew at a 2.6% annualized rate. Business investment rebounded with a 9.8% annualized increase, including a 22.5% rise in equipment spending and gains in structures and research & development. Residential investment posted a positive contribution, marking an improvement after previous periods of contraction. Overall, while the headline GDP number indicates a contraction, underlying private sector activity suggests the economy remained on solid fundamental footing in Q1.1

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U.S. Trade Deficit Hits a Record in March – With imports surging in anticipation of tariffs, the U.S. trade deficit ballooned by 14% to an all-time high of $140.5 billion. According to Census Bureau data, imports reached $346.8 billion, fueled by a $22.5 billion jump in consumer goods—especially pharmaceutical products, which were being eyed for future tariffs. Imports of electronics, vehicles, and automotive parts also contributed to the increase. We would not view this as a trend but rather as a form of “front running,” where companies accelerated shipments to avoid future costs. Although some firms may have continued stockpiling into April, the intense focus on pharmaceuticals likely crowded out spending on other goods like clothing and toys.

While the goods deficit hit a record $163.5 billion in March alone, it was partially balanced by a $23 billion services trade surplus, with $95 billion in U.S. services exports—such as travel and financial services.3

China’s Services Sector Shows Signs of Weakening – The world’s second largest economy showed signs of weakening as the effects of 145% tariffs took hold. China’s services sector lost momentum in April, as measured by the Caixin services purchasing managers index, which declined to 50.7 from 51.9 in March. This marked the lowest reading since September 2024 and suggested a slowdown in growth across the nonmanufacturing economy.The decline in the Caixin index was consistent with China’s official nonmanufacturing PMI, which slipped to 50.4 from 50.8. According to Caixin and S&P Global, the growth in new business in the services sector was the weakest in over two years, with export orders rising only modestly. Some companies cited increased tourism demand, but overall business sentiment continued to deteriorate, reaching its second-lowest level since the survey began in 2005.All told, the trade dispute with the U.S. is having effects beyond manufacturing, dampening domestic and global demand in service-related industries as well.4

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Disclosure

1 AP News. May 2, 2025. https://apnews.com/article/trump-jobs-economy-tariffs-unemployment-inflation-5f06fd466b4e05da30d1d6e5ce222790

2 ZIM may amend or rescind the guide “How Solid Is Your Retirement Strategy?” for any reason and at ZIM’s discretion.

3 Wall Street Journal. May 6, 2025. https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/u-s-trade-deficit-hits-record-as-companies-front-loaded-pharmaceuticals-5d7a1720?mod=economy_lead_pos1

4 Reuters. May 5, 2025. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-services-growth-hits-7-month-low-tariffs-bite-caixin-pmi-shows-2025-05-06/

5 ZIM may amend or rescind the guide “How Solid Is Your Retirement Strategy?” for any reason and at ZIM’s discretion.

DISCLOSURE

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss.

Zacks Investment Management, Inc. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Zacks Investment Research. Zacks Investment Management is an independent Registered Investment Advisory firm and acts as an investment manager for individuals and institutions. Zacks Investment Research is a provider of earnings data and other financial data to institutions and to individuals.

This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. Do not act or rely upon the information and advice given in this publication without seeking the services of competent and professional legal, tax, or accounting counsel. Publication and distribution of this article is not intended to create, and the information contained herein does not constitute, an attorney-client relationship. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment or strategy is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole.

Any projections, targets, or estimates in this report are forward looking statements and are based on the firm’s research, analysis, and assumptions. Due to rapidly changing market conditions and the complexity of investment decisions, supplemental information and other sources may be required to make informed investment decisions based on your individual investment objectives and suitability specifications. All expressions of opinions are subject to change without notice. Clients should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any security or investment strategy discussed in this presentation.

Certain economic and market information contained herein has been obtained from published sources prepared by other parties. Zacks Investment Management does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information. Further, no third party has assumed responsibility for independently verifying the information contained herein and accordingly no such persons make any representations with respect to the accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of the information provided herein. Unless otherwise indicated, market analysis and conclusions are based upon opinions or assumptions that Zacks Investment Management considers to be reasonable.

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