Private Client Group

May 21st, 2025

Weak Point for U.S. Housing, Inflation Eases for Now, De-Escalating “De Minimis” Imports 

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In this issue of The Steady Investor, we break down the forces driving today’s market—and what they could mean for investors. Topics include:  

A Critical Point of Weakness in the U.S. Housing Market – The U.S. housing market continues to display pockets of weakness, with one particular category recently coming to light: first-time buyers. It is widely known that rising interest rates have crimped affordability and housing supply at the same time, which has raised barriers for first-time homebuyers. Large home builders have been attempting to lower these barriers by subsidizing home loans through in-house financing arms, offering rates closer to 5% for buyers of newly constructed homes. But even these efforts appear to be falling short.Despite the discounted financing, builders reported underwhelming sales this spring. One notable home builder, PulteGroup, cited an 11% year-over-year drop in new orders from first-time buyers in the first quarter. Inventory levels of completed but unsold homes have climbed to their highest levels since the financial crisis era, signaling that the affordability crunch is sidelining a growing share of would-be homeowners.

The current market has effectively split first-time buyers into two groups: those who can afford existing homes, where the typical buyer is now 38 years old with a nearly six-figure household income, and those who rely on builder incentives to enter the market. While builders continue to lean on aggressive incentives—recently offering concessions equivalent to 8% of a home’s price—the path to recovery in the starter-home market likely requires more than just lower rates. For many younger buyers, price declines may be a necessary part of the equation before homeownership becomes attainable again.1  

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Inflation Eases in April, But Tariff Pressures May Come Later – April 2025’s inflation report offered a brief reprieve for consumers and policymakers alike, though signs point to renewed price pressures ahead as tariffs begin to bite. The consumer price index increased 0.2% for the month, aligning with expectations and offering little in the way of surprises. On an annual basis, inflation eased to 2.3%, the lowest reading since early 2021, helped in part by a sharp year-over-year decline in gasoline prices.Core inflation, which strips out the more volatile food and energy components, rose at a 2.8% pace from a year earlier, also in line with forecasts. While the data suggested that inflationary pressures remain contained for now, we would caution that benign headline numbers may mask emerging risks. So far, many companies have managed to shield consumers from the brunt of higher tariffs, in part by drawing down inventories stockpiled earlier in the year. However, this buffer may only delay price increases until the summer months, when the effects of elevated import duties are expected to flow more directly into consumer prices.3

“De-Escalation” Still Means High Tariffs on Small Parcel Shipments from China – In a further sign of easing tensions between the U.S. and China, the Trump administration announced it would significantly lower tariffs on low-value shipments from China, hours after both sides agreed to a temporary 90-day halt in their escalating trade dispute. Effective Wednesday, the tariff on these small parcels—those valued under the $800 threshold known as the “de minimis exemption”—will be reduced to 54%, down from the steep 120% rate imposed earlier this year.

This rollback reverses a key component of an earlier executive order that had effectively suspended the long-standing de minimis exemption for China, creating substantial disruption for e-commerce platforms and logistics providers reliant on the streamlined import process. The abrupt imposition of the 120% levy had caused confusion across supply chains and led to a temporary halt in package acceptance by the U.S. Postal Service. The move to reduce the tariff comes alongside broader tariff cuts on a wide range of goods exchanged between the two countries, with the U.S. lowering base tariffs on most Chinese imports to 30% and China easing its own levies on American products to 10%. While these changes signal a meaningful de-escalation, the tariff landscape remains far more restrictive than pre-dispute levels.4

Make Your Retirement Savings Last – You’ve worked hard to build your retirement savings—now comes the challenge of making it last.

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Disclosure

1 Wall Street Journal. May 15, 2025. https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/first-time-home-buyers-builders-1bfa046d?mod=djemMoneyBeat_us

2 Zacks Investment Management reserves the right to amend the terms or rescind the free 4 Strategies for Spending Money in Retirement offer at any time and for any reason at its discretion.

3 MSN. 2025. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/trump-slashes-de-minimis-tariffs-on-small-shipments-from-china/ar-AA1EGbCx

4 Wall Street Journal. May 13, 2025. https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/cpi-inflation-april-2025-interest-rate-8febd2d2?mod=economy_feat3_trade_pos1

5 Zacks Investment Management reserves the right to amend the terms or rescind the free 4 Strategies for Spending Money in Retirement offer at any time and for any reason at its discretion.

DISCLOSURE

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss.

Zacks Investment Management, Inc. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Zacks Investment Research. Zacks Investment Management is an independent Registered Investment Advisory firm and acts as an investment manager for individuals and institutions. Zacks Investment Research is a provider of earnings data and other financial data to institutions and to individuals.

This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. Do not act or rely upon the information and advice given in this publication without seeking the services of competent and professional legal, tax, or accounting counsel. Publication and distribution of this article is not intended to create, and the information contained herein does not constitute, an attorney-client relationship. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment or strategy is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole.

Any projections, targets, or estimates in this report are forward looking statements and are based on the firm’s research, analysis, and assumptions. Due to rapidly changing market conditions and the complexity of investment decisions, supplemental information and other sources may be required to make informed investment decisions based on your individual investment objectives and suitability specifications. All expressions of opinions are subject to change without notice. Clients should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any security or investment strategy discussed in this presentation.

Certain economic and market information contained herein has been obtained from published sources prepared by other parties. Zacks Investment Management does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information. Further, no third party has assumed responsibility for independently verifying the information contained herein and accordingly no such persons make any representations with respect to the accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of the information provided herein. Unless otherwise indicated, market analysis and conclusions are based upon opinions or assumptions that Zacks Investment Management considers to be reasonable.

Any investment inherently involves a high degree of risk, beyond any specific risks discussed herein.

It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Investors pursuing a strategy similar to an index may experience higher or lower returns, which will be reduced by fees and expenses.

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index measures the value of the U.S. Dollar against a basket of currencies of the top six trading partners of the United States, as measured in 1973: the Euro zone, Japan, the United Kingdom, Canada, Sweden, and Switzerland. An investor cannot directly invest in an index. The volatility of the benchmark may be materially different from the individual performance obtained by a specific investor.
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